Top Prop Bets for the O'Reilly Auto Parts 500, Part I
NASCAR rolls into the Lone Star State and the Dallas-Fort Worth area for the O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 from Texas Motor Speedway Sunday afternoon. We’ve already given you a rundown on the specifications about the track and how well (or in some cases, poorly) the active drivers on the circuit have fared here. Today, we take a look at some of the top prop bets are for you to talk walk away from the window with a stack full of cash. As always, all the odds for the prop bets are brought to you by DraftKings. Without further ado, let’s take a look at the best options out there.
Aric Almirola to Win (+2200): This one is a gut call given as well as Almirola has run of late. He has been on a tear in the last six races coming into this race. That includes five top-five finishes in that span with his worst showing in a points race coming in last week’s Quaker State 400, when he finished eighth. Throw in that he won stage 1 of the All-Star Open at Bristol on Wednesday before finishing ninth in the All-Star race and he has momentum on his side. In his last three runs here at Texas Motor Speedway, he has finished eighth, seventh and second. He’s running from the pole position here. You have to give him at least a flier on this one as there may be no one hotter than him right now.
Kevin Harvick to Finish in the Top Three (-125): Harvick has won the fall race at Texas Motor Speedway three years running but he hasn’t won the spring race in his career. While this one is in the middle of summer, that doesn’t mean that Harvick is going to pull out a victory but by the same token, it’s not guaranteeing that he’s going to take the checkered flag either. However, he’s finished in the top 10 in each of his last 11 races here, so he’s definitely in the groove when it comes to racing on this track. That includes three second-place showings and a third-place run along with his three wins. He may not get the win but locking him in for a top-three finish makes sense.
Chase Elliott to Finish in the Top Five (+130): Elliott was on a roll with no points on the line, having led the final three stages of the All-Star Race at Bristol Wednesday night en route to the win and a cool million in the bank account. He has to bounce back after finishing 11th or worse in four of the last five races but he had finished in the top eight in five of the six previous races before this recent stretch. Elliott has been solid at Texas in his career with five top-10 showings in his eight races. While he struggled in the fall race last year, he should channel his success from Bristol here and deliver a solid run.
Erik Jones to Finish in the Top 10 (+100): This is one of those races where Jones needs to step up and put together a solid run. He is on the outside looking in at the playoff picture coming into this one and needs to make up some ground. After all, he has finished 22nd or worse in three of his last four races coming into this one. When it comes to racing at Texas, however, Jones has had success, recording five straight top-10 showings, including three fourth-place finishes. He’s only finished outside the top 10 in two of his runs here with one of those being an 12th-place run in the fall race of 2015. Jones has led at least nine laps in three of his last four runs here so you have to give him a shot at a top-10 here, especially at even or slightly plus money.
Kyle Busch to Finish OUTSIDE the Top Five (-136): Busch has pretty favorable odds, going off at +650 to win, behind only Harvick and Denny Hamlin. He has won here before, taking the spring race in 2013, 2016 and 2018 but, like Harvick, that doesn’t instill a ton of confidence in what could happen here in the heat of summer. Busch has finished 21st or worse in three of the last five races, including a 21st-place showing at Kentucky last week in the Quaker State 400 after starting from the pole. After winning four of the first 14 races last season, he has won just once in the last 39 races. It’s hard to put a ton of faith into him right now as it seems like backing him to run strong has been like burning money. Fade him a little bit here.
That concludes our look at part one of our top prop bets for this weekend’s race. Stay tuned for part two, coming soon to give you the best options to walk away a winner.