UFC on ESPN 12 Prelims Odds Predictions and Preview
From Apex Facility, UFC on ESPN 12 Prelims feature an interesting mix of fights and fighters leading into eventful top card action. With the early lineup still unsettled after recent personnel changes, today's preview will examine seven matchups.
Odds courtesy of BestFightOdds.Com
The first bout for consideration pits lightweights Khama Worthy (+190) and Luis Pena (-230) in direct combat.
After injury derailed his The Ultimate Fighter season 22 run, "Violent Bob Ross" has carved 4-2 Octagon stead with those two losses disputed. Regarded as 155 lb. prospect material, Pena owns an appreciable reach and competition faced edge versus his weak-chinned assignment.
Contrary to Pena's durability, Khama Worthy has suffered five knockout defeats in 21 paid fights. Though "Deathstar" owns the stockier build, and a recent UFC TKO debut over +640 favorite Devonte Smith, Pena's technical superiority will net a stoppage win for the St. Charles MMA product Saturday.
While Pena is the logical choice here, nine of Worthy's 15 W's come via TKO while Pena holds just two.
For that reason, you could sprinkle a little juice on Worthy by TKO, but Pena winning is the more likely outcome.
Luis Pena by stoppage
A duel of Flyweight women hopefuls sees fading Mara Romero Borella (-300) desperate for victory vs. UFC noob Miranda Maverick (+250).
Having dropped four of five, and three straight, Borella enters must-win territory Saturday. The Brazilian submission fighter faced stoppage in two of her last three Octagon appearances, including a recent Armbar loss against Cortney Casey.
Meanwhile, 22-year-old Maverick has tapped five of her seven paid victims along her breakout Invicta journey. Now on the biggest stage, Maverick's all around game appears too strong for her journey woman challenge.
Miranda Maverick wins via submission
At near pick-em' odds, heavyweights Philipe Lins (-105) and Tanner Boser (-115) square up.
Boser enjoys an appreciable weight edge versus former light heavyweight Lins. However, after recently pushing Andrei Arlovski, Lins is the better athlete and finisher heading into Saturday's contest. While this fight isn't likely to end within distance, expect Lins to impose reach and explosive bursts on Boser for the grinding victory.
Take Lins by decision
Knockout power vs. pain inducing submissions are displayed as specialists Takashi Sato (-125) and Ramiz Brahimaj (+105) rumble at UFC on ESPN 12.
Sato has TKOd his last six paid victims, including "Killah B" Ben Saunders to earn favorite status over Brahimaj, who has split four recent bouts on the regional scene. With Brahimaj taking a major step up, look for Sato to sprawl takedowns and end matters via TKO.
Takashi Sato via TKO
Featherweight action pits entry-level Octagon talents Jordan Griffin (+105) vs. Youssef Zalal (-125).
As the superior striker, with decent reverse wrestling, look for slight underdog Griffin to use his boxing to outpoint Zalal. While both men recently enjoyed inagural UFC victories, Griffin is worth the price in this evenly matched bout.
Jordan Griffin wins by decision
115 lb. female campaigners Jinh Yu Frey (+145) and Kay Hansen (-165) open UFC on ESPN 12 undercard action.
With championship Invicta success, Frey owns an experience edge over her younger opponent. However, 10th Planet Jiu Jitsu trainee Kay Hansen is improving dramatically at 20-years-old with each fight.
Expect the bigger, younger and stronger Hansen to bully Frey along the cage and mat en route to decision victory. At 35, Frey showed recent vulnerability vs. Ayaka Hamasaki before rebounding vs. Ashley Cummins.
Take Kay Hansen by decision in this battleof former Invicta FC standouts making their collective UFC debut.
Originally scheduled for main card action, Sean Woodson (-490) enters heavily favored vs. last-minute replacement Julian "Juicy J" Erosa (+330).
After dominant The Ultimate Fighter season 22 performances, Erosa won his initial UFC matchup via split decision in 2015 before suffering an explosive TKO loss vs. Teruto Ishihara which precipitated a two year Octagon absence. Upon his return, Erosa put Jamall Emmers away on Dana White's Contender Series and earned another shot with the MMA juggernaut.
Though, three straight defeats forced "Juicy J" from the promotion and Saturday likely represents the former TUF standout's last chance at UFC employment.
Knowing this, unbeaten Sean Woodson can employ his dominant 79 inch reach to outstrike and outmaneuver his eleventh-hour opponent. While Erosa remains dangerous sporting 10 TKOs and nine submissions, expect Woodson's volume striking to gain ultimate currency.
Sean Woodson wins by decision
While this week's UFC on ESPN 12 card shapes up as entertaining, Winners and Whiners' Joshua Broom went 6-5 at UFC on ESPN 11. Main card picks for the latest UFC event can be found here.