UFC on ESPN 24: Best Bets & Value Plays
Last Card Recap
What a main event that was. We took Jiri Prochazka to get the job done and he sure delivered. Interestingly enough, the line on that main event moved throughout the card and on some sites he ended up as an underdog for some awesome value. The Jacoby play fell through as Cutelaba kept his chin safe by using a grapple heavy attack. Parlays were a wash with one coming in and the other missing by a split decision.
Let's dive into tonight's card.
All odds are mean odds provided by www.bestfightodds.com
My picks in bold
Main Card
Michelle Waterson (+175) vs. Marina Rodriguez (-215)
Donald Cerrone (-202) vs. Alex Morono (+167)
Neil Magny (+161) vs. Geoff Neal (-194)
Marcos Rogério de Lima (-203) vs. Maurice Greene (+167)
Carlos Diego Ferreira (+134) vs. Gregor Gillespie (-162)
Amanda Ribas (-191) vs. Angela Hill (+160)
Well the main card stayed in tact, although Ferreira came in quite heavy. I actually thought Ferreira had a lot of value but it's tough to recommend betting a fighter who comes in that much over the limit. The last few months have showed that fighters who missed weight by a sizable margin have performed well so take that as you will. As for underdogs, I think Angela Hill holds a lot of value here, she has shown pretty good take down defense and has sharp striking. She has a great chance to steal a decision here. A finish is very unlikely but +300 for a decision is a play I can get behind.
Regarding the main event, I'd say the odds are a bit wide but rather than tip the underdog here I think I'll wait and watch the line move throughout the night. If you like Waterson then you probably already bet it and I'm not mad at that.
Preliminary Card
Phil Hawes (+109) vs. Kyle Daukaus (-131)
Ľudovít Klein (-254) vs. Michael Trizano (+204)
Jun Yong Park (+117) vs. Tafon Nchukwi (-141)
Christian Aguilera (+143) vs. Carlston Harris (-172)
The prelim card got decimated, losing two fights on weigh in day. I also missed the boat for Park (who opened closer to +160) and Harris (who actually opened as the underdog!). Never the less, Kyle Daukaus is our man, I think he has all the tools to exploit Hawes (you can find my full breakdown here.)
My plays for the night below: