Air Force vs. Utah State Picks and Prediction for Saturday, September 13, 2025
Air Force Falcons (1-0) vs. Utah State Aggies (1-1)
Week 3 of the 2025 college football season is upon us, and in this preview, we are breaking down the Mountain West Conference showdown from Maverik Stadium in Logan, UT, to get you the best Air Force vs. Utah State prediction for Saturday night.
These two schools lock horns for the first time since September 15, 2023, when the Falcons beat the Aggies 39-21, covering a 9-point spread in front of the home fans. In their previous encounter at Maverik Stadium, Utah State defeated Air Force 34-27 as an 11.5-point home dog on October 8, 2022.
The Aggies are 4.5-point home underdogs this time around, while the total sits at 50.5 points. The kick-off is set at 9:45 PM ET, so let’s take a closer look at this Air Force vs. Utah State prediction, one of our NCAAF picks for Week 3.
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Air Force wants to stay on track
The Air Force Falcons are coming off a bye. Back in Week 1, the Falcons had an easy job, beating the FCS Bucknell Bison 49-13 at home. Air Force covered a 30.5-point spread, and the game went over the 53.5-point line. It was the Falcons’ 19th straight season-opening victory.
Air Force outgained Bucknell 426-266 in total yards and won the turnover battle 2-0. The Falcons rushed 51 times for 267 yards, while junior QB Josh Johnson completed four of his seven passing attempts for 112 yards and two touchdowns.
Senior WR Cade Harris had a big game in Week 1. He caught three passes for 83 yards and a touchdown while rushing eight times for 66 yards and a couple of scores. Senior RB Dylan Carson had 11 carries for 52 yards and a touchdown, while senior WR Quin Smith posted one catch for 40 yards and a TD.
“I think the biggest thing is guys weren’t nervous,” Air Force coach Troy Calhoun said. “Guys weren’t loose. Guys were focused. That’s what we want. We want guys who trust their training and preparation.”
Last year, the Falcons went 5-7 overall and 3-4 in conference play. It was their first losing season since 2018. The Falcons ranked 125th in scoring offense (18.9 points per game) and 48th in scoring defense (23.3). Carson was their best playmaker, carrying the pigskin 138 times for 600 yards and five touchdowns in 10 games.
Utah State hopes for a bounce-back performance
The Utah State Aggies started their 2025 campaign with a 28-16 home victory over UTEP in Week 1. They outgained the Aggies 360-284 in total yards and won the turnover battle 1-0, but it wasn’t a great performance by any means. The Aggies committed 11 penalties for 73 yards and went 2-for-12 on third down. They covered a 4.5-point spread.
Senior RB Miles Davis led the way for Utah State in Week 1. He posted 12 carries for 88 yards and a touchdown while catching six passes for 61 yards. Senior QB Bryson Barnes completed 19 of his 28 passing attempts for 233 yards and a touchdown and rushed 15 times for 29 yards and a touchdown.
Last week, the Aggies suffered a 44-22 defeat at the No. 19 Texas A&M Aggies. Utah State covered a huge 34.5-point spread but didn’t really stand a chance of upsetting Texas A&M. Barnes threw for 169 yards and a couple of touchdowns, while Davis carried the pigskin 10 times for 50 yards and caught three passes for nine yards and two touchdowns.
“I claim responsibility first,” Utah State coach Bronco Mendenhall said. “They beat us in all three phases. Great environment, but we didn’t play as clean or as sharp in any of the phases today.”
Last year, Barnes appeared in nine games, throwing for 856 yards, 12 touchdowns, and six interceptions. Utah State went 4-8 overall and 3-4 in conference play. The Aggies were scoring 31.9 points per game (tied for 35th in the nation) while surrendering a whopping 37.8 points in return (tied for 128th).
Air Falcons vs. Utah State Pick
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Rob Vincilleti | +1,778.00 |
| 2 |  Ross Benjamin | +1,716.00 |
| 3 |  David Hess | +1,326.00 |
| 4 |  Earle Sports Bets | +1,323.00 |
| 5 |  Dan Kaiser | +1,071.00 |
Spread Pick for Air Force vs. Utah State
- Utah State +4.5 (5 units)
It is Bronco Mendenhall’s first year at the Aggies’ helm, and Utah State already looks like a better defensive team than it was in 2024. The Aggies allowed 44 points and 554 total yards to Texas A&M, but that was a tough matchup for Utah State. Back in Week 1, the Aggies’ defense was solid, allowing 2.9 yards per rush.
The Aggies will struggle to contain the Falcons’ ground game, but they have enough offensive weapons to hurt Air Force and keep it close in front of the home fans. The Falcons heavily lean on their rushing, and I think they won’t beat Utah State comfortably.
Air Force is 6-0 ATS in its last six games overall. However, the Falcons have gone 3-7 ATS in their previous 10 showings in conference play. On the other side, the Aggies are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games overall and 5-1 ATS in their previous six outings at home.
Over/Under Pick for Air Force vs. Utah State
- Over 50.5 (5 units)
I expect Air Force and Utah State to combine for more than 50 points. These two teams will move the ball against each other. The Falcons will find a way to rush efficiently, while the Aggies love to play fast, which will suit them well in this matchup.
Each of the last three encounters between Air Force and Utah State has gone over the line and produced at least 60 points in total. The over is 5-1 in the Aggies’ last six games overall and 7-1 in their previous eight showings in conference play.
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