Atlanta Falcons vs. Minnesota Vikings Picks and Prediction for Sunday, September 14, 2025

Atlanta Falcons (0-1) vs. Minnesota Vikings (1-0) 

Week 2 of the 2025 NFL season is upon us, and Sunday Night Football brings the NFC showdown from U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, MN, so we have prepared the Falcons vs. Vikings prediction to get you covered.

The Falcons meet the Vikings for the third straight season, and Minnesota has won its previous two encounters with Atlanta. The Vikings beat the Falcons 31-28 as 3.5-point road underdogs in 2023 and 42-21 as 6-point home favorites in 2024.

Minnesota is a 3.5-point home fave this time around, while the total sits at 44.5 points. Read more about this Falcons vs. Vikings prediction, and check out all our NFL picks for Week 2.

The Falcons started the season with an L       

The Atlanta Falcons (1-0; 0-1 ATS; 0-1 O/U) have dropped three straight games dating back to the previous season. Last Sunday, the Falcons hosted the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in their season opener, suffering a 23-20 defeat.

Atlanta outgained Tampa Bay 358-260 in total yards, but it wasn’t enough. The Falcons’ ground game struggled a lot, and Atlanta amassed just 69 yards on 28 carries. Bijan Robinson caught six passes for 100 yards and a touchdown, but he mustered only 24 yards on 12 totes.

Michael Penix Jr. completed 27 of his 42 passing attempts, throwing for 298 yards and a touchdown. He scored once on his own to give the Falcons a 20-17 lead with 2:17 remaining in the fourth quarter, but the Buccaneers responded immediately. Atlanta had a chance to force overtime. However, Younghoe Koo missed a 44-yarder with six seconds left on the clock.

“He missed it,” Falcons coach Raheem Morris said. “I’m not going to sit here and pretend I can tell you about the technique and what happened with that miss. But we got to make those kicks. Those are very makeable kicks. We’ve got to lock in and get that done.”

Last season, the Falcons ranked 10th in the NFL in rushing yards per game (130.5), while Koo missed nine of his 34 field-goal attempts. Robinson was terrific, posting 304 carries for 1,456 yards and 14 touchdowns. However, the Buccaneers’ run defense was outstanding last Sunday, so the Falcons had to lean on Penix’s arm.

 

The Vikings emerge victorious in J.J. McCarthy’s debut            

The Minnesota Vikings (1-0; 1-0 ATS; 1-0 O/U) started their 2025 campaign with Monday Night Football in Chicago. They beat the Bears 27-24 in J.J. McCarthy’s long-awaited debut, but it wasn’t a smooth ride by any means.

McCarthy threw a pick-six early in the third quarter, and at the start of the fourth, the Vikings were down 17-6. The first-round pick from the 2024 NFL Draft was a monster down the stretch, throwing for a couple of touchdowns and rushing for another to lift the Vikings over the Bears.

“We don't win this game unless J.J. plays the way he did in the second half,” Vikings coach Kevin O'Connell said. “Most importantly, he kept the belief of this football team behind him, and now, we know it's possible. You hope not to be in these circumstances very often. But this team's made of the right stuff.”

McCarthy went 13-of-20 for 143 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception. Aaron Jones Sr. rushed eight times for just 23 yards but caught three passes for 44 yards and a touchdown. Justin Jefferson had four receptions for 44 yards and a TD, while Jordan Mason rushed 15 times for 68 yards. On the other side of the ball, Javon Hargrave posted a couple of sacks and tackles for loss.

The Vikings went 14-3 last season, but they decided to part ways with QB Sam Darnold in the offseason. McCarthy missed the entire 2024 season due to a knee injury, and Darnold went bonkers, throwing for 4,319 yards, 35 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. However, Minnesota suffered a disappointing 27-9 loss against the LA Rams in the wild-card round.

Falcons vs. Vikings Pick

Spread Pick for Falcons vs. Vikings 

• Minnesota Vikings -3.5 (5 units) 

I expect the Vikings to win the battle in the trenches. Their run defense will be key, and the Vikings were second in the NFL in rushing yards allowed last season (93.4). The Vikings’ offensive unit must be fired up following that tremendous comeback in Week 1, so I’m backing Minnesota to win and cover.

The Falcons have some injury worries ahead of Week 2. Wideouts Drake London and Darnell Mooney both struggle with a shoulder injury, while fellow WR Casey Washington is in concussion protocol. On the other side, the Vikings have two players in concussion protocol, CB Jeff Okudah and OLB Andrew Van Ginkel.

The Vikings are 6-1 SU and ATS in their last seven encounters with the Falcons. Minnesota is 5-2 ATS in its previous seven games overall, whereas Atlanta has covered the spread just once in its last nine showings at any location.

Over/Under Pick for Falcons vs. Vikings 

• Under 44.5 (5 units) 

The over has hit in each of the last three meetings between Atlanta and Minnesota, but I’m not going to ride this betting trend. I expect the Vikings to defend well against the rush, and keeping Bijan Robinson quiet will be a key factor in their eventual success. The Falcons, on the other side, have enough weapons to contain the Vikings’ rushing. They might struggle to contain Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison, who combined for five touchdowns in a 42-21 victory over Atlanta last season.

The Falcons should have learned the lesson. They held Baker Mayfield to 167 passing yards last week, though Mayfield threw for three touchdowns. Still, that game produced 43 points in total and went under.