Boston Red Sox vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Picks and Prediction for Sunday, September 7, 2025
Boston Red Sox (78-64) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (71-71)
The 2025 MLB betting action continues Sunday, September 7, with the Boston Red Sox taking on the Arizona Diamondbacks in the interleague clash at Chase Field in Phoenix, Arizona, and we’ve got you covered with our Red Sox vs. Diamondbacks prediction.
Boston and Arizona close down their three-game regular-season series. The Diamondbacks beat the Red Sox 10-5 in the opener, while the middle game has been excluded from the analysis. This preview was published before Saturday’s results.
Let’s take a closer look at this Red Sox vs. Diamondbacks prediction, one of our MLB picks for Sunday’s card. The first pitch at Chase Field is set at 4:10 PM ET, and the Red Sox open as slight -112 favorites with a total of 9.0 runs.
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The Red Sox’s pitching fell apart last Friday
The Boston Red Sox gave up 10 runs on 11 hits and seven walks in the opening game of this series. Payton Tolle yielded five earned runs on five hits and four walks across three innings of work, and Justin Slaten allowed four more in relief while getting just three outs. Boston scored four earned runs in the top of the eighth, but Slaten was awful in the bottom of the eighth.
It was the Red Sox’s second loss in a row. Boston has gone 3-4 in its previous seven games overall, and the Red Sox have allowed a whopping 45 runs during that stretch. Their bullpen has struggled over the last seven days, posting a 5.33 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, and a .257 batting average against across 27 innings of work.
Boston was 4.5 games behind the AL East-leading Toronto Blue Jays on Saturday morning. The Red Sox held the middle wild card in the American League and were half a game behind the New York Yankees.
Brayan Bello will toe the slab at Chase Field on Sunday afternoon. The 26-year-old right-hander is 11-6 with a 3.07 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 24 starts and one relief appearance (146.2 innings pitched) this season. He’s gone 3-0 over his previous four starts while posting a shiny 2.16 ERA through 25 innings of work.
Bello met the Diamondbacks once in 2024. He was charged with a loss, allowing five earned runs on seven hits and four walks in 5.1 innings. The current Diamondbacks are 4-for-14 without extra-base hits against Bello.
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The Diamondbacks are heating up
The Arizona Diamondbacks outhit the Red Sox 11-8 this past Friday and extended their winning streak to three games. Ildemaro Vargas and Corbin Carroll each hit a three-run homer, while Geraldo Perdomo went 4-for-5 with an RBI single and a solo home run.
The Diamondbacks have done a great job over the last few weeks. They are 7-2 in the last nine games overall and 11-5 in the previous 16. However, the Diamondbacks are still in a tough position. They were 5.5 games behind the final wild-card spot in the National League on Saturday morning.
Arizona has accounted for 44 runs in its last nine games and yielded just 27 runs in return. The Diamondbacks bullpen has amassed a 3.45 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, and a .215 batting average against during that stretch (28.2 IP).
Ryne Nelson will take the mound on Sunday afternoon, and the 27-year-old right-hander carries a 7-3 record with a 3.57 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in 19 starts and 10 relief appearances (131 IP) in 2025. He’s been shaky over his last five outings (1-0 record), posting a 4.85 ERA across 29.2 frames of work.
Nelson met the Red Sox once in 2024 and threw six innings of a two-run, five-hit ball in a winning effort. The current Red Sox are just 3-for-23 with a double and two home runs against Nelson.
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Red Sox vs. Diamondbacks Pick
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Earle Sports Bets | +2,298.00 |
| 2 |  Ross Benjamin | +1,840.00 |
| 3 |  Rob Vincilleti | +1,757.00 |
| 4 |  David Hess | +1,745.00 |
| 5 |  Dan Kaiser | +987.00 |
Moneyline Pick for Red Sox vs. Diamondbacks
- Boston Red Sox (5 units)
Brayan Bello is having a nice season, and I expect him to pitch well in this game. The Diamondbacks tortured him last season, but Bello looks like a much better pitcher than he was in 2024.
Arizona has struggled a lot against right-handed pitchers lately. Over the last 10 days, the Diamondbacks have recorded a .621 OPS and 70 wRC+ versus the righties. The Red Sox have done a much better job during that span, posting a .772 OPS and 110 wRC+ against the righties.
Hereof, I’m taking the Red Sox in what should be a tight battle at Chase Field. Ryne Nelson has a strong record against Boston’s bats, but he hasn’t been at his best of late.
Over/Under Pick for Red Sox vs. Diamondbacks
- Under 9.0 (5 runs)
These two bullpens have allowed a ton of runs in the opener. I’m looking for a much better performance in the closer, so give me the under on the total. Brayan Bello should fare well in this matchup, and I can only hope that Ryne Nelson will avoid a meltdown. Nelson sports a 2.60 ERA at home and a 4.67 ERA on the road in 2025.
Bello boasts a 2.85 ERA away from home. He’s allowed more than three runs just once in his last seven starts while notching a 2.47 ERA during that stretch.
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