Calgary Stampeders vs Ottawa Redblacks Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Saturday September 26 2026

Today’s Calgary Stampeders vs Ottawa Redblacks picks for Saturday, September 26, 2026, feature an immediate rematch at TD Place after one of the wildest finishes of the CFL season. Calgary improved to 6-8 with a 40-38 win last week when Rene Paredes hit a career-long 62-yard field goal on the final play, while Ottawa fell to 0-13 despite producing its best offensive showing of the season.

The Stampeders are short road favorites, but the stronger Week 17 angle is the total. Bettors can follow more CFL betting picks, compare current CFL betting odds, and review posted CFL player props before kickoff. Calgary’s season-long scoring profile, Ottawa’s defensive numbers and the first meeting all support another game with enough offense to challenge a total of 62.5.

Best Available Odds for Calgary Stampeders vs Ottawa Redblacks

• Moneyline: Calgary -140, Ottawa +120
• Spread: Calgary -2.5 (-105), Ottawa +2.5 (-115)
• Total: Over 62.5 (-110), Under 62.5 (-110)

The spread opened around Calgary -2.5, briefly touched -3 and has returned to -2.5 at several books. The total has been much steadier at 62.5 despite last week’s 78-point result. That stable number matters because the first meeting was not just inflated by a defensive touchdown or overtime; the teams combined for nine offensive touchdowns and traded the lead six times.

Game Info

• Date: Saturday, September 26, 2026
• Time: 3:00 PM ET
• Location: TD Place, Ottawa, Ontario
• TV: TSN, CTV, RDS2, Crave and CFL+
• Weather: A mix of sun and cloud is expected with a high near 23°C. The current forecast does not show a meaningful rain concern for the afternoon.
• Key Availability: Calgary receiver Reggie Begelton was limited Wednesday with a head issue. Ottawa has a long injury report: running back Greg Bell and defenders Travian Blaylock, Brian Cole II, Aidan John and Sione Teuhema were among the Wednesday non-participants. Final Saturday designations remain important to monitor.

Calgary Stampeders vs Ottawa Redblacks Preview

Calgary’s offense is built to keep this rematch in a high-scoring range. The Stampeders average 35 points per game, second-best in the CFL, and Vernon Adams Jr. has thrown 27 touchdown passes. He passed for 357 yards against Ottawa last week, continuing a season in which his efficiency has been much stronger than Calgary’s 6-8 record suggests.

The ground game gives Calgary another route to points. Dedrick Mills is among the league rushing leaders, and Deonta McMahon ran for 102 yards on only 15 carries in the first meeting. Ottawa allows more than 130 rushing yards per game, so the Stampeders do not need to rely on Adams throwing 40 times to move the football.

Ottawa finally found a passing formula that looked sustainable with McLeod Bethel-Thompson. In his first start for the Redblacks, the veteran threw five touchdown passes and repeatedly attacked Calgary’s vulnerable secondary. Three of those touchdowns went to Keelan White, while Justin Hardy drew 19 targets and finished with 12 catches for 129 yards and a score.

That performance should not be dismissed as a one-week fluke simply because Ottawa remains winless. Calgary allows 34.2 points and more than 400 yards per game, ranking near the bottom of the league in both categories. The Stampeders have enough offense to win shootouts, but they have not shown they can consistently turn games into low-possession defensive contests.

Ottawa’s defense is even more vulnerable. The Redblacks allow a league-high 36.8 points and 459.8 yards per game, including 342.4 passing yards. Calgary already averages 35 points, so the Over does not require a dramatic Stampeders performance. It needs something close to their normal offensive output plus a competitive Ottawa contribution.

Matchup Breakdown

Calgary’s biggest advantage is the ability to attack Ottawa in multiple ways. If the Redblacks keep extra defenders deep to prevent Adams from hitting vertical routes, Mills and McMahon can run into lighter boxes. If Ottawa compresses the line of scrimmage, Adams has enough arm strength and receiving talent to generate chunk plays outside.

Ottawa’s answer is volume through Bethel-Thompson. The Redblacks average only 49.6 rushing yards per game, the lowest mark in the CFL, so they are unlikely to build the offense around the ground game. That makes Hardy, White and the short-to-intermediate passing game essential, especially against a Calgary defense allowing more than 300 passing yards per game.

The first meeting also showed why the spread is less attractive than the total. Calgary was favored by more than a touchdown at home and still needed a 62-yard field goal to escape. Moving the rematch to Ottawa while asking the Stampeders to lay only 2.5 is more reasonable, but Calgary is just 5-9 ATS and Ottawa has covered five of 13 despite losing every game outright.

The total has stronger historical support. Calgary is 11-3 to the Over, one of the strongest Over profiles in the league, while Ottawa is 7-6. Among the four Week 17 matchups, those season records create the strongest total case, and last week’s 78 points provide matchup-specific confirmation.

There is still risk at 62.5. A total this high requires both teams to finish drives, and rematches can produce defensive adjustments after each coaching staff sees the same concepts twice in seven days. The first game, however, did not depend on overtime or a fluky defensive score, which makes regression less automatic than it would be in a more distorted final.

Game Thesis: Calgary has the better offense and should find enough points to win, but Ottawa’s improved passing attack can punish a Stampeders defense that has struggled throughout the season. The side remains too volatile to trust, while the total has season-long and matchup-specific support. Projected final: Calgary 34, Ottawa 33.

Calgary Stampeders vs Ottawa Redblacks Best Bet - Total: Over 62.5 (-110)

Over 62.5 is the best bet because both teams have a realistic path into the 30s. Calgary averages 35 points per game and faces the league’s worst defense by points and yards, while Ottawa just showed that Bethel-Thompson can generate explosive scoring against this particular Calgary secondary.

The strongest support comes from Calgary’s 11-3 Over record. That trend fits the team’s structure: a top-tier offense paired with a defense allowing 34.2 points per game. Ottawa’s 7-6 Over record is less extreme, but it is enough to reinforce rather than contradict the Calgary profile.

The risk is that the rematch becomes more conservative after both teams review last week’s tape. At 62.5, there is little room for stalled red-zone drives. Still, a score in the mid-30s for Calgary and around 30 for Ottawa is enough, and the current forecast does not present a weather reason to downgrade offense.

Calgary Stampeders vs Ottawa Redblacks Spread Pick: Pass

Calgary -2.5 is tempting because a field-goal win would cash, but the Stampeders’ ATS profile does not support laying points. Calgary is only 5-9 ATS, and Ottawa just covered the first meeting while nearly winning outright.

Ottawa +2.5 is not an automatic play either. The Redblacks are 0-13 straight up and still own the league’s weakest defensive profile. The edge is in the scoring environment rather than choosing which inconsistent team handles the final possession.

Calgary Stampeders vs Ottawa Redblacks Moneyline Pick: Pass

Calgary -140 is a more logical way to back the Stampeders than laying the spread, but the price still asks a 6-8 team with a bottom-tier defense to win on the road. Ottawa +120 is not large enough to compensate for the Redblacks’ 0-13 straight-up record.

A projected one-point Calgary win does not create enough value on the moneyline. The preferred position is to separate the total from the winner and back the game to produce points.

Prediction: Calgary Stampeders 34, Ottawa Redblacks 33