Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Picks and Prediction for Monday, September 8, 2025
Cincinnati Reds (72-71) vs. San Diego Padres (77-65)
The 2025 Major League Baseball season continues Monday, September 8, with the Cincinnati Reds taking on the San Diego Padres in the National League showdown at Petco Park in San Diego, CA, and we’ve got the Reds vs. Padres prediction.
Cincinnati and San Diego start a three-game series at Petco Park. It’s their second set in 2025, and the Reds took two out of three from the Padres at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati in June.
Let’s take a closer look at this Reds vs. Padres prediction, one of our MLB picks for Monday’s card. The first pitch at Petco Park is set at 9:40 PM ET.
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The Reds aim for their third straight win
The Cincinnati Reds won a three-game home set against the New York Mets over the weekend. After a 5-4 defeat in the opener, the Reds beat the Mets 6-3 in the middle game and 3-2 in the closer. It was a huge victory for the Reds, who are now four games behind the last wild-card spot in the National League.
The Reds have struggled a lot lately. They’ve only won four of their previous 12 games overall. During that stretch, the Red have scored 54 runs while surrendering 70 runs in return. Their bullpen has been bad over the last couple of weeks, notching a 5.83 ERA, 1.66 WHIP, and a .275 batting average against.
Nick Lodolo is expected to take the mound at Petco Park on Monday night. The 27-year-old left-hander is 8-7 with a 3.22 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in 24 starts (134.1 innings pitched) this season. He’s coming off a rare bad performance, as Lodolo gave up four earned runs on five hits and a walk across 4.2 innings in a 5-1 loss at the Dodgers on August 27.
Last Tuesday, Lodolo was scratched from start due to illness. He met the Padres in June, throwing 5.1 innings of a one-run, seven-hit ball in a no-decision. Lodolo is 1-1 with a 2.60 ERA in three career starts against San Diego, and the current Padres are 9-for-45 with two doubles and a home run against him.
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The Padres hope to get back on track
The San Diego Padres visited the Colorado Rockies on Sunday afternoon, and this game has been excluded from the analysis (San Diego led Colorado 6-1 in the top of the fourth). It was a rubber match of a three-game series. The Rockies took the opener 3-0, and the Padres responded with a 10-8 win in the middle game.
The Padres put an end to their five-game losing streak with that two-run victory at Coors Field in Denver, CO. San Diego has only won three of its previous 12 games overall, and the Padres were one game behind the NL West-leading LA Dodgers on Sunday morning, holding the middle wild card in the National League.
During that 12-game stretch, the Padres have scored 56 runs while yielding 72 runs in return, and their bullpen has accounted for a pedestrian 5.64 ERA and 1.54 WHIP. Yu Darvish is projected to get the starting call on Monday, and the 39-year-old righty carries a 3-5 record with a troublesome 5.75 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP in 11 starts (51.2 IP) in 2025.
Darvish will meet the Reds for the first time this season. He’s 5-3 with a 3.09 ERA in 11 career starts against Cincinnati, and the current Reds are 7-for-33 with a double against Darvish.
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Reds vs. Padres Pick
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| 1 |  Earle Sports Bets | +2,298.00 |
| 2 |  Ross Benjamin | +1,840.00 |
| 3 |  Rob Vincilleti | +1,757.00 |
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| 5 |  Dan Kaiser | +987.00 |
Moneyline Pick for Reds vs. Padres
- Cincinnati Reds (4 units)
I think there’s value on the Reds in the opening game of this series. Yu Darvish has been far away from his top form lately, and the Reds have done a good job against the right-handed pitchers in the last 10 days (.814 OPS and 120 wRC+). Darvish has allowed four runs in three of his previous four starts.
Nick Lodolo should be ready to go, and he has a strong record against the Padres. San Diego’s lineup has recorded an underwhelming .658 OPS and 88 wRC+ against the southpaws in the past 10 days. Both bullpens have been shaky lately, so I’m looking for a tight battle down the stretch.
Over/Under Pick for Reds vs. Padres
- Over (4 runs)
I expect the Reds to get to Yu Darvish and score a few runs early in this game. On the other side, the Padres will get their chance when the Reds bullpen takes over. As I noted, both bullpens have struggled over the last 10 days, so give me the over on the total.
The Reds are desperate for wins. Their lineup has been solid lately, and the Reds have scored five or more runs in five of their previous seven games overall. Six of those seven contests have produced at least nine runs in total. On the other side, five of the Padres’ previous eight games have seen nine or more runs on the scoreboard.
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