North Carolina vs. Michigan State Picks and Prediction, Thursday, November 27th, 2025
In this North Carolina vs. Michigan State prediction, the 16th-ranked Tar Heels take on the 11th-ranked Spartans in the Beach Division of the Fort Myers Tip-Off. The Tar Heels are a perfect 6-0 this season, including a win over Kansas. The Spartans are also 6-0 and already have wins over Power Five conference teams Kentucky and Arkansas. Read on for more in this UNC/MSU prediction and get our top Men’s College Basketball Picks to increase your bankroll!
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North Carolina on the Rise
The North Carolina Tar Heels are off to a perfect start this season, with six straight wins as the proud program tries to get back to the Dance in 2025-26. On Tuesday night, they started the Fort Myers Tip-Off in style with an 85-70 win over the previously unbeaten St. Bonaventure Bonnies. Henri Veesaar led the way with 24 points for the Tar Heels, and Caleb Wilson continued his hot start with 20 points of his own. Kyan Evans and Luka Bogavac rounded out the double-digit scoring with 10 points apiece. The 6-0 start is North Carolina’s best start since 2016-17. They've been able to win despite losing starting guard Seth Trimble (arm) until early January.
The Tar Heels have, as always, high expectations coming into this season. It could prove to be a make-or-break season for head coach Hubert Davis, entering his fifth season in charge of the Heels. Thus far, things have been solid. North Carolina is 49th in the nation in scoring. The team is 71st in offensive efficiency and an impressive 17th in scoring margin. The Heels are 89th in field goal efficiency, but have struggled from beyond the arc. They rank just 200th in the country in 3-point shooting. On the defensive end, the Tar Heels are 22nd in points allowed per game. They are 7th in defensive efficiency and fourth in effective field goal percentage on the defensive end. The Heels are ranked 106th in 3-point defense. They are a bit sloppy, ranked 112th in the nation in turnovers. The Heels are an impressive 3rd in the country in rebounding and play at the 118th-ranked pace of play.
Key Injuries: G Seth Trimble is out.
Spartans Eyeing Another Title Run
It has been 25 long years since the Michigan State Spartans raised an NCAA Championship plaque, this despite being one of the most successful college basketball programs over that span. Head Coach Tom Izzo has once again put together a program that can make a deep run in the NCAA Tournament this March. The Spartans have gotten off to a great start, winning each of their first six games. The Spartans started off the Fort Myers Classic in style with an 89-56 win over the East Carolina Pirates on Tuesday night. Jaxon Kohler and Divine Ugochukwu led the balanced MSU attack with 16 points apiece. The Spartans also got 13 points from CoenCarr and 10 points from Carson Cooper in the victory. The defense was dominant, forcing 24 turnovers in the one-sided win.
The 6-0 Spartans now get a major test against the North Carolina Tar Heels on Thanksgiving Day. The Spartans come in at 2-0 against Power Five conference teams. They are 125th in the nation in points per game. The Spartans are ranked 84th in offensive efficiency and 89th in effective field goal percentage. The team is 60th in the country in scoring margin. Like the Heels, the Spartans have struggled from beyond the arc, ranking 285th in the country in 3-point shooting. The Spartans are ranked 24th in scoring defense thus far. They are 37th in defensive efficiency and 54th in field goal defense efficiency. The Spartans are 55th in the country in 3-point defense. The team is 123rd in turnovers per game and 135th in pace of play. Michigan State is 17th in the country in total rebounds.
Key Injuries: G Kaleb Glen is out.
UNC vs. MSU Pick
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Earle Sports Bets | +2,298.00 |
| 2 |  Ross Benjamin | +1,840.00 |
| 3 |  Rob Vincilleti | +1,757.00 |
| 4 |  David Hess | +1,745.00 |
| 5 |  Dan Kaiser | +987.00 |
Point Spread Pick for North Carolina vs. Michigan State
- Michigan State minus the points (4 units)
This early-season matchup pitting two teams from Power Five conferences should be tightly contested. I’m leaning toward the Spartans in this matchup for a couple of reasons. The Spartans have arguably the most depth of any team in the top 20 in College Basketball. They defend the perimeter well and can hang with the Tar Heels on the glass. The edge in the coaching matchup shifts in favor of MSU with Tom Izzo’s 30+ years of coaching experience, particularly his experience against Top 25 schools. The Spartans will grind out a close win in this matchup.
Take the Spartans minus the points.
Over/Under Pick for UNC at MSU
- Under
This game should be a chess match between two coaches who are thriving on quality defense thus far this season. The Heels are 22nd in the country in points allowed, and the Spartans are ranked 24th. Both teams rebound the ball extremely well, so don’t expect many second and third-chance opportunities. Both teams won’t be in any particular hurry, each ranking in the middle of the pack in pace of play thus far.
Take the under.
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