Air Force Falcons vs New Mexico Lobos Picks and Predictions for Tuesday February 17 2026
Use Code WWWC The Air Force Falcons head to Albuquerque to take on the New Mexico Lobos on Tuesday, February 17, 2026. Tipoff is scheduled for 9:00 PM ET at The Pit, with the game airing on MWN. New Mexico enters as a massive 28.5-point favorite, and the total is set at 143.5. The moneyline has not been released at the time of this writing. Be sure to check out our free college basketball picks for additional betting insights and daily analysis.
Falcons Facing a Tall Task on the Road
Air Force comes into this matchup at 3-22 overall and 0-14 in Mountain West Conference play, including a 0-7 record on the road in conference action. The Falcons have lost five straight games, recently falling to Fresno State 93-63 and Colorado State 91-74. They also dropped contests to San Diego State 88-54, Grand Canyon 81-57, and Fresno State again 79-62. It has been a difficult stretch for a team that has struggled to find consistency on either end of the floor.
The Falcons are averaging just 61.4 points per game while allowing 79.0 points per contest. They shoot 43% from the field and grab only 29.1 rebounds per game, which ranks among the lowest in the conference. Air Force does distribute the ball reasonably well at 12.4 assists per game, but the lack of offensive firepower has made it difficult to keep pace against stronger Mountain West opponents.
Defensively, Air Force averages 2.6 blocks and 5.7 steals per game, but those numbers have not translated into stops. Opponents have been able to score efficiently and dominate the glass. With such a wide point spread in this matchup, Air Force will need to slow the tempo and limit turnovers to avoid being overwhelmed by New Mexico’s athleticism.
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Lobos Dominating at The Pit
New Mexico enters with a strong 19-6 overall record and a 10-4 mark in Mountain West play. The Lobos are 6-1 at home in conference action and have been tough to beat at The Pit all season. In their last five games, they won over Grand Canyon 70-64 and picked up road victories at San Jose State 90-80 and UNLV 89-61. They did suffer close losses to Boise State 91-90 and Utah State 86-66, but overall the Lobos remain one of the top teams in the conference.
Offensively, New Mexico averages 80.8 points per game while shooting 46% from the field. They also pull down 36.2 rebounds per game and hand out 14.8 assists per contest. On the defensive end, they allow just 69.5 points per game, a significant advantage compared to Air Force’s scoring output.
One of the biggest strengths for the Lobos is their defensive pressure. They average 7.8 steals per game and force opponents into uncomfortable possessions. Combined with 2.9 blocks per contest, New Mexico’s defense often fuels their transition offense. Against a struggling Air Force team, that could create separation quickly.
Air Force Falcons vs New Mexico Lobos Pick
Air Force Falcons vs New Mexico Lobos Spread Pick
- Pick: New Mexico -28.5
New Mexico holds a significant edge in nearly every statistical category. The Lobos score nearly 20 points more per game than Air Force and allow almost 10 fewer points. With The Pit providing one of the stronger home-court advantages in the conference, this matchup heavily favors New Mexico. Air Force’s offensive struggles make it difficult to envision them keeping this within four possessions, let alone staying competitive late.
Air Force Falcons vs New Mexico Lobos Total Pick
- Pick: Under 143.5
I am leaning toward the under in this matchup. While New Mexico can score, Air Force’s offense averages just 61.4 points per game and has struggled to reach even 70 points consistently. If the Lobos build a large lead early, the tempo may slow considerably in the second half. I see New Mexico controlling the game defensively and keeping Air Force’s scoring output limited.
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