Air Force vs. San Diego State Picks and Prediction for Wednesday, December 17, 2025
Use Code WWWC Air Force Falcons (3-8) vs. San Diego State Aztecs (5-3)
The college basketball betting action goes on Wednesday, December 17, 2025, with the Air Force Falcons squaring off against the San Diego State Aztecs in the Mountain West Conference showdown at Viejas Arena in San Diego, CA, so we’ve prepared the Air Force vs. San Diego State prediction to get you covered.
The Aztecs aim for their 12th straight victory over the Falcons. They met twice last season, and the Falcons nearly pulled off an upset in front of the home fans, suffering a 77-76 defeat in overtime. At Viejas Arena, San Diego State trounced Air Force 67-38.
Read more about this Air Force vs. San Diego State prediction, and check out all our NCAAB picks for Wednesday’s card. The Aztecs open as huge 23.5-point home favorites with a total of 138.5 points, and the tip-off is set at 10:00 PM ET.
Air Force is on a four-game slide
The Air Force Falcons (3-8; 5-6 ATS; 4-7 O/U) started their 2025-26 campaign with a four-game losing streak. After that, the Falcons strung together three straight wins over Alabama State 66-64, SIU Edwardsville 77-63, and IU Indianapolis 98-85. Since then, the Falcons have dropped four straight games against Northern Colorado 71-53, South Dakota 80-63, Pacific 80-65, and Navy 61-56.
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The Falcons haven’t played since December 7, when they blew a nine-point lead against Navy. Air Force missed six of its 14 shots from the foul line and committed three more turnovers than the Midshipmen (11-8). Freshman guard Kam Sanders led the way for the Falcons with 15 points and four rebounds, while junior forward Caleb Walker had 12 points and four boards.
Walker tallies 12.7 points and 5.1 boards per game. Sanders averages 12.3 points, 4.2 boards, and 3.5 assists, while freshman forward Lucas Hobin adds 12.7 points and 2.5 boards a night. Air Force scores 97.8 points per 100 possessions (345th in the country) and surrenders 111.6 points in return (264th).
San Diego State eyes its third straight win
The San Diego State Aztecs (5-3; 4-4 ATS; 4-4 O/U) have won three of their last four games overall. After a 97-80 victory over Oregon and a 91-81 defeat against Baylor, the Aztecs strung together a couple of wins versus Utah Valley 77-66 and Lamar 89-71.
Last Wednesday, San Diego State cruised past Lamar and narrowly covered a 17.5-point spread at home. The Aztecs went 8-for-18 from downtown and 23-for-31 from the charity stripe while forcing 18 turnovers. Junior guard Miles Byrd led the way with 19 points and four assists, while fellow junior guard BJ Davis scored 16 points off the bench.
Davis posts 12.6 points and 2.8 rebounds per game. Senior guard Reese Dixon-Waters tallies 12.3 points and 2.0 assists per game, while Byrd adds 10.6 points and 2.8 dimes a night. San Diego State scores 115.1 points per 100 possessions (69th in the country) and allows 100.7 points in return (46th).
Air Force vs. San Diego State Pick
Spread Pick for Air Force vs. San Diego State
- San Diego State -23.5 (5 units)
The Falcons lack depth to compete against the Aztecs. This Air Force team is quite young and turnover-prone. The Falcons turn the ball over on 21.0% of their possessions (325th in the country), while the Aztecs are 24th in the country in defensive turnover percentage (21.4%).
San Diego State doesn’t take good care of the ball either (19.6%, 288th), but the Aztecs make 40.5% of their shots from deep (9th). The Falcons are not a great shooting team by any stretch of the imagination, and they’ll struggle to keep it close against the Aztecs. Air Force makes just 31.5% of its shots from downtown (249th).
I expect the Aztecs to force the Falcons into a lot of turnovers and push the ball in transition whenever they can. Hereof, I will lay 23.5 points with SDSU.
Over/Under Pick for Air Force vs. San Diego State
- Over 138.5 (5 units)
The Falcons register just 65.1 possessions per 40 minutes (338th in the country). On the other side, the Aztecs record 69.3 possessions per 40 minutes. They will look to speed things up as much as possible while playing aggressive defense.
Both teams will take a lot of shots from beyond the arc. The Aztecs are one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the country, while the Falcons will have to hit some triples if they want to stand any chance of hanging around.
Despite the Falcons’ slow pace, I will take the over. Two of the last three encounters between Air Force and San Diego State have gone over the total while producing more than 138.5 points.
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