Air Force vs. UNLV Picks and Prediction for Saturday, January 3, 2026
On Saturday, the Air Force Falcons will visit the UNLV Runnin' Rebels for a Mountain West Conference basketball game, and we have you ready to go with our Air Force vs. UNLV prediction, odds, and preview. Tip-off from Thomas & Mack Center in Las Vegas is at 5:00 p.m. ET.
The Rebels are 15.5-point spread favorites, and the game total is 145.5 points scored.
These schools played three times last season, and UNLV won all three games. They have won four straight in the series and are 8-2 (6-4 ATS) in their last ten matchups with the Falcons. The over/under was split 5-5 in those games. If you want the Air Force vs. UNLV prediction, read on to get our top NCAAB predictions and increase your bankroll!
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Air Force is a slow-tempo team
Air Force (3-10 SU, 7-6 ATS, and 5-8 O/U) lost 68-56 to Wyoming in its last game (Tuesday). The Falcons trailed for 89 percent of the game despite shooting 50 percent overall, as they struggled at the free-throw line (11-for-20) and from three-point distance (1-for-12). They also committed 19 turnovers.
Freshman guard Kam Sanders paces Air Force in scoring, averaging 12.5 points on 35.2 percent shooting. He also collects 4.2 rebounds per contest. A few other Falcons to watch against UNLV are junior forward Caleb Walker (12.4 PPG and 4.9 RPG), freshman forward Lucas Hobin (11.6 PPG), and sophomore forward Eli Robinson (10.2 PPG and 6.2 RPG).
Air Force averages 70.3 points per game (338th) on 44.9 percent shooting (221st), including 30.6 percent from three-point range (314th). The Falcons' defense surrenders 79.8 points per game (255th) on 45.7 percent shooting (292nd), including 33.9 percent from beyond the arc (237th). KenPom ranks Air Force 328th nationally, including 346th in offensive efficiency rating and 253rd in defensive efficiency rating.
Air Force Falcons Basketball Injury Report:
- No injuries to report.
UNLV will look to push the pace at home
UNLV (6-6 SU, 5-6 ATS, and 6-5 O/U) beat La Sierra 89-47 in its previous game (Monday). The Runnin' Rebels led by 30 at halftime and coasted to victory in the second half. They shot 47 percent from the floor and outrebounded the Golden Eagles 50-30, collecting 20 offensive rebounds. They outscored them 24-0 in transition and 52-12 in the paint.
Junior guard Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn leads the Runnin' Rebels in scoring at 17.3 points per game. He shoots 46.5 percent from the field and 34.2 percent from three-point range. A few other UNLV players to watch on Saturday against Air Force are senior forward Kimani Hamilton (13.2 PPG and 5.2 RPG), freshman guard Issac Williamson (10.6 PPG), and freshman forward Tyrin Jones (10.5 PPG and 5.3 RPG).
UNLV averages 81.8 points per game (164th) on 46.2 percent shooting (148th), including 28.5 percent from three-point range (353rd). The Rebels' defense surrenders 78.8 points per game (233rd) on 43.8 percent shooting (202nd), including 31.9 percent from beyond the arc (135th). KenPom ranks UNLV 141st nationally, including 129th in offensive efficiency rating and 174th in defensive efficiency rating.
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Joe Duffy | +2,763.00 |
| 2 |  Tony Karpinski | +2,672.00 |
| 3 |  The Insiders Room | +2,420.00 |
| 4 |  Jackie Mack | +1,909.00 |
| 5 |  Mark Ruelle | +1,730.00 |
UNLV Runnin' Rebels Basketball Injury Report:
- No injuries to report.
Air Force vs. UNLV Pick and Preview
Spread Pick for Air Force vs. UNLV
- Falcons +15.5 (4 Units)
I lean towards Air Force's side ATS. The Falcons will slow down the pace (344th in schedule-adjusted tempo), reducing UNLV's possession count. That will make it difficult for the home team to cover the large spread, especially if they don't put the pedal to the metal with a comfortable lead after halftime. The Falcons have played well enough on the road (2-1 ATS) and have momentum (3-0 ATS in their previous three games. The Runnin' Rebels are the better team, but they have been inconsistent (ranked 305th nationally in Haslametrics' Consistency metric) and rank 340th in offensive momentum.
The Falcons will struggle to keep the score close, but they'll be competitive enough to cover the 15.5-point spread.
Over/Under Pick for Air Force vs. UNLV
- Under 145.5 (4 Units)
The spread and total are too large in this matchup. The Falcons are among the slowest-tempo college basketball teams and won't put many points on the scoreboard against a Rebels team ranked 32nd nationally in defensive momentum heading into this game. The Falcons won't score extra points at the free-throw line (63.7% FT%) or off of second-chance offensive rebounds (312th in quick points off offensive rebounds), either. UNLV is a high-tempo team, but the Rebels haven't been efficient offensively recently. They scored 65 or fewer points twice in their previous five games and aren't likely to dominate from start to finish on Saturday.
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