Alabama vs. Tennessee Picks and Prediction for Saturday, February 28, 2026
Use Code WWWC Alabama Crimson Tide (21-7) vs. Tennessee Volunteers (20-8)
Another exciting Saturday of college basketball is upon us, so we are breaking down the marquee SEC matchup from Food City Center in Knoxville, TN, to get you the best Alabama vs. Tennessee prediction.
Alabama and Tennessee lock horns for the second time this season. On January 24, the Volunteers beat the Crimson Tide 79-73 as 3.5-point road underdogs to extend their winning streak to five games in this series.
Now, the Volunteers are 5.5-point home favorites with a total of 164.5 points. Read more about this Alabama vs. Tennessee prediction, and make sure to check out all our NCAAB picks for Saturday’s slate. The tip-off at Food City Center is set at 6:00 PM ET.
Alabama continues to roll
The Alabama Crimson Tide (21-7; 12-16 ATS; 15-13 O/U) are riding a seven-game winning streak following Wednesday’s 100-75 thrashing of Mississippi State. Freshman forward Amari Allen tortured the Bulldogs for 23 points, while junior guard Aden Holloway posted a line of 16 points, 10 assists, and four rebounds.
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The Crimson Tide went 22-for-50 from beyond the arc last Wednesday. They outrebounded Mississippi State 48-36 on the night and handed out 23 assists. Alabama led by as many as 39 points, covering a 12.5-point spread with ease.
Sophomore guard Labaron Philon missed the Mississippi State game due to a minor groin injury, and he should be ready to go Saturday. Philon has been outstanding this season, tallying 21.3 points and 5.0 assists per game. Holloway posts 16.9 points and 4.1 assists per contest, and Allen adds 12.5 points, 7.5 rebounds, and 3.4 assists a night.
Alabama is 11-4 in conference play and tied with Arkansas for the second spot in the SEC. The Crimson Tide score 130.0 points per 100 possessions (3rd in the nation) while allowing 102.9 points in return (57th). They are No. 17 in the AP Top 25 Poll and No. 19 in the NCAA NET Rankings.
Tennessee’s winning streak is over
The Tennessee Volunteers (20-8; 12-16 ATS; 15-13 O/U) put an end to their four-game winning streak last Tuesday. After beating Mississippi State 73-64, LSU 73-63, Oklahoma 89-66, and Vanderbilt 69-65, the Volunteers suffered a 73-69 defeat at Missouri.
The Volunteers had a bad day in the office on Tuesday night. They shot 42.8% from the field (7-for-24 from deep) while committing seven more turnovers than Missouri (15-8). Senior guard Ja’Kobi Gillespie led the way for the Vols with 19 points, six assists, and four rebounds, while freshman forward Nate Ament had 17 points, seven boards, and a couple of blocks and steals.
Tennessee has just two players with points per game in double figures. Gillespie tallies 18.1 points and 5.4 assists per game, and Ament posts 17.9 points and 6.5 rebounds a night. Junior forward J.P. Estrella averages 9.3 points and 5.0 boards on the season.
The Volunteers are fourth in the SEC with a 10-5 record. They score 122.0 points per 100 possessions (33rd in the nation) while yielding 96.0 points in return (16th). Tennessee is No. 22 in the AP Top 25 Poll and No. 20 in the NCAA NET Rankings.
Alabama vs. Tennessee Pick
Spread Pick for Alabama vs. Tennessee
- Alabama +5.5 (5 units)
Tennessee beat Alabama by six points in January, but I don’t feel comfortable with a 5.5-point spread in this game. Alabama hit just six of its 26 attempts from deep in that 79-73 loss to Tennessee. The Volunteers are 20th in the country in opposing 3-point percentage (30.2%), but they allow a ton of shots from deep and are 330th in opposing 3-point rate (.447).
The Crimson Tide lead the nation in 3-point rate (.542) and rank 57th in 3-point percentage (36.1%). They could easily get things going and manage to keep it close down the stretch. Tennessee is a tough defensive unit, but Alabama takes great care of the ball (7th in the nation in turnover percentage, 13.2%).
Over/Under Pick for Alabama vs. Tennessee
- Under 164.5 (5 units)
Alabama plays at the third-fastest pace in the country, tallying 73.5 possessions per 40 minutes, whereas Tennessee records just 65.8 possessions per 40 minutes (270th). The Volunteers will do everything they can to slow the Tide down and force Alabama into half-court basketball.
Tennessee is arguably a better rebounding team than Alabama. The Vols lead the country in offensive rebound percentage (45.1%) and rank 47th in defensive rebound percentage (72.3%). They don’t rely on 3-pointers a lot (321st in 3-point rate, .327), so I will take the under.
Five of Tennessee’s last six games overall and 13 of the previous 14 encounters between Tennessee and Alabama have gone under the total.
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