Arkansas State vs. Coastal Carolina Picks and Prediction for Wednesday, February 4, 2026
On Wednesday, the Arkansas State Red Wolves will play the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers in a Sun Belt Conference basketball game, and we have you ready to go with our Arkansas State vs. Coastal Carolina prediction, odds, and preview. Tip-off from Conway, SC, is at 7:00 p.m. ET.
The Red Wolves are 2.5-point spread favorites, and the game total is 153.5 points scored.
This is the first matchup of the season between these Sun Belt opponents. The Red Wolves beat the Chanticleers 97-67 last season as 14.5-point favorites. Arkansas State is 6-4 both straight-up and against the spread in its last ten matchups with Coastal Carolina. The over was 6-4 in those games. If you want the Arkansas State vs. Coastal Carolina prediction, read on to get our top NCAAB predictions and increase your bankroll!
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Arkansas State allows over 80 PPG
Arkansas State (14-8 SU, 9-12 ATS, and 10-11 O/U) lost 70-61 to Marshall on Saturday as 3.5-point home favorites. The Red Wolves were held to 33 percent shooting and missed 25 threes. The Thundering Herd led for 76 percent of the game and shot 40 percent from beyond the arc in the upset win.
Arkansas State is tenth in the Sun Belt this season with a 5-6 record. The Red Wolves are 4-6 straight-up and 2-7 against the spread in their last ten games. They are ranked 172nd nationally by KenPom, including 146th in offensive efficiency and 225th in defensive efficiency. Arkansas State scores 85.2 points per game (50th) on 44.6 percent shooting (229th), including 32.0 percent from downtown (283rd). Defensively, they allow 82.4 points per game (328th), and their opponents shoot 45.8 percent from the field (279th), including 32.3 percent from beyond the arc (120th).
Senior guard Matt Hayman leads the Red Wolves in scoring at 12.0 points per game on 41.5 percent shooting. He also contributes 3.0 rebounds and 2.5 assists per game. A few other Arkansas State stars to watch against Coastal are junior guard Christian Harmon (11.7 PPG and 3.7 RPG), senior forward Jaxon Ellingsworth (10.2 PPG and 5.6 RPG), and sophomore guard Joey Chammaa (10.1 PPG in 12 GP).
Arkansas State Red Wolves Injury Report:
- No injuries to report.
Chanticleers could struggle to box out the Red Wolves
Coastal Carolina (14-10 SU, 13-10 ATS, and 13-10 O/U) beat ULM 83-79 on the road in its last game, failing to cover the spread as 9.5-point favorites. The Chanticleers shot 52 percent overall and knocked down 13 of their 27 threes (48%), while UL Monroe missed 20 of its 30 three-point attempts. Coastal also won the rebounding battle 37-30 and scored 34 points in the paint.
Coastal Carolina is fourth in the Sun Belt this season with a 7-5 record. The Chanticleers are 6-4 straight-up and 5-5 against the spread in their previous ten games. They are ranked 232nd nationally by KenPom, including 278th in offensive efficiency and 163rd in defensive efficiency. Coastal Carolina averages 76.4 points per game (219th) on 41.5 percent shooting (338th), including 34.1 percent from downtown (182nd). Defensively, the Chanticleers surrender 74.8 points per game (178th), and their opponents shoot just 39.5 percent overall (19th), including 30.9 percent from three-point distance (60th).
Senior guard Joshua Beadle leads the Chants in scoring at 16.3 points per game on 42.4 percent field goal shooting. He also contributes 3.5 rebounds and 3.3 assists per game. A few other Coastal Carolina players to watch against Arkansas State are junior guard AJ Dancler (15.4 PPG and 5.6 RPG), junior guard Rasheed Jones (15.0 PPG and 4.9 RPG), and senior forward Reggie Hill (6.8 PPG and 5.6 RPG).
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Sean Higgs | +1,855.00 |
| 2 |  Joe Duffy | +1,497.00 |
| 3 |  Ben Burns | +1,112.00 |
| 4 |  Ross Benjamin | +618.00 |
| 5 |  Bryan Power | +607.00 |
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers Injury Report:
- No injuries to report.
Arkansas State vs. Coastal Carolina Pick and Preview
Spread Pick for Arkansas State vs. Coastal Carolina
- Red Wolves -2.5 (5 Units)
Arkansas State has been consistent overall and solid on the road, ranking in the top 100 in Haslametrics' Consistency and Away from Home metrics this season. The Red Wolves will be tough for the Chanticleers to keep off the glass, as the visitors rank 13th nationally in offensive rebounding percentage, 46th in potential quick points off offensive rebounds, and 28th in second-chance conversion percentage. Coastal ranks 271st in potential quick points allowed off offensive rebounds vs the average opponent, as well. On the other end of the court, the Chants are a weak offensive rebounding team (297th), rarely get second-chance buckets (305th in SCC%), and don't get to the foul line often (281st in FT rate). Those are the types of points that can make a significant difference in a competitive game, which is why I lean towards the Red Wolves' side ATS.
Over/Under Pick for Arkansas State vs. Coastal Carolina
- Over 153.5 (4 Units)
The visitors are high-tempo, ranking 20th nationally in schedule-adjusted tempo, and will generate additional possessions and points via offensive rebounds and trips to the charity stripe. Coastal Carolina will allow too many of those opportunities for the visitors, pushing them to keep up offensively in a higher-scoring game. On the other end of the court, the Chanticleers should have success scoring the basketball inside the paint, as Arkansas State is 293rd in average opponent near-proximity shooting percentage. They struggle inside the arc as a whole, ranking outside the top 250 in two-point defense. The Red Wolves are also foul-prone (251st in opponent FT rate), which means both teams should be in the double bonus late in the second half. In what I anticipate to be a competitive game, those free throws will add up, pushing the total into the 160s.
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