Arkansas State vs. Ohio, Prediction and Picks, Monday, November 3, 2025
Use Code WWWC It's the start of the 2025-26 college basketball season. On Monday, we have a MAC/SBC Challenge as Arkansas State (25-11, 13-5 MAC 2024-25) takes on the Bobcats of Ohio (16-16, 10-8 MAC in 2024-25) at 7pmET from Athens, Ohio. Each team has made significant changes since last season. Who will take advantage in this Arkansas State vs. Ohio prediction? Need quality NCAAB Predictions? This is the ultimate site for basketball winners.
New coach, new players at Arkansas State
You can say that about most programs with the transfer portal, graduation, NIL and everything else going on in college hoops. Ryan Pannone, formerly an assistant at Alabama, takes over a program that has to replace all five starters from a team that won 25 games last season. The good news is that former head coach Bryan Hodgson, now at USF, also came from Nate Oats' staff from Alabama, so they will run a similar uptempo approach.
Last season, the Red Wolves fell in the SBC Tournament to Troy, 94-81 forced them to accept an NIT bid and they had some success defeating St. Louis before falling to North Texas by two in the second round. ASU was still picked to win the Sun Belt despite losing all five starters. Pannone went to the transfer portal to pick up Florida State wing Chander Jackson (6-5, 215), who averaged 6.43 points and shot 42.6% from the field in three seasons at FSU. Jackson was named preseason second-team All-SBC.
The Red Wolves also add size in 6-10, 245 Chudi Dioramma from Sacramento State, who avaraged 5.7 points and 3.7 rebounds. Arkansas State lost five players who averaged double figures, led by Taryn Todd (14.8ppg). Last year's team averaged 79.4 points and allowed 70.2 points. They ranked 289th in field goal percentage (42.6%) and 25th in field goal defense (40.5). They also ranked 29th and first in the SBS in rebounding margin at 9.2.4
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Boals hoping for fewer injuries in 2025-26
Jeff Boals (114-76) heads into his seventh season at Ohio U, returning from a .500 season and a 10-8 conference record that wasn't bad considering he was playing undersized guards at power forward because his frontcourt was so decimated by injuries. The good news is that, unlike Arkansas State, they return four key players led by seniors Ajay Sheldon (4.7ppg), Aidan Hadaway (10.2ppg, 5.8rpg) and point guard Jackson Paveletezke (13.8ppg, 4.7apg).
The Bobcats also add four transfers from 6-7, 235-pound junior Javan Simmons (12.5ppg, 6.8rgp, 2.2apg) from Toledo, 6-8 senior forward Jalen Breath (6.6ppg, 7rpg) from UNCG, and guard Dion Conners (8pg, 40.1% 3pt) from App State.
Ohio shot the ball well last season, averaging 46.9% from the field and 35.8% from long range. The problem was their defense, which allowed 76.5 points per game and opponents to shoot 45.7% from the field and 37.1% from long range.
Arkansas State vs. Ohio Pick
Spread Pick for Arkansas State vs. Ohio
- Ohio -4.5 (4 units)
It's going to take a while for Arkansas State to gel under a new coach with five new starters. Even if the system is similar to last season's, the players are not. The old players have to get used to a new coach and the new players have to get used to Nate Oats' Alabama up-tempo system. Ohio has a chance to be better than the team that was picked fourth in the MAC preseason poll. Boals did a nice job just to get them to .500 with all their injuries.
Over/Under Pick for Arkansas State vs. Ohio
- Over (4 units)
Arkansas State wants to push the ball every possession. That's going to be ingrained in the Red Wolves. Arkansas State ranked 70th in possessions per game, and Ohio ranked 23rd so they ran a little more. Ohio did struggle on defense, ranking 252nd in opponent effective field goal percentage at 52.3%. Expect Ohio to get a little better, but for the Red Wolves to decline a lot, with so many new players, from last season's 24th in opponents' field goal percentage (40.7%).
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