Arkansas State vs. Saint Mary’s Picks and Prediction for Wednesday, November 19, 2025
Use Code WWWC Arkansas State Red Wolves (3-1) vs. Saint Mary’s Gaels (4-0)
The college hoops betting action continues Wednesday, November 19, 2025, with the Arkansas State Red Wolves squaring off against the Saint Mary’s Gaels in the non-conference clash at University Credit Union Pavilion in Moraga, CA, and we’ve got you covered with our Arkansas State vs. Saint Mary’s prediction.
The Red Wolves have never met the Gaels before. The tip-off is set at 10:00 PM ET, so let’s take a closer look at this Arkansas State vs. Saint Mary’s prediction, one of our NCAAB picks for Wednesday’s card. The Gaels open as 18.5-point home favorites with a total of 147.5 points.
Arkansas State aims for its third straight W
The Arkansas State Red Wolves (3-1; 2-1 ATS; 2-1 O/U) started their first season under Ryan Pannone with a three-game road trip, sandwiching a heavy 90-65 defeat at Stephen F. Austin with a pair of wins over Ohio 89-85 and Missouri State 86-85.
The Red Wolves returned home last Saturday, beating the Division II Christian Brothers 95-67. Arkansas State made 57.3% of its field goals (7-for-24 from deep), and senior forward Jaxon Ellingsworth led the way with 20 points and seven rebounds.
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Ellingsworth tallies 11.8 points and 5.8 rebounds per game, while senior guard Chandler Jackson averages 14.5 points, 3.8 boards, and 3.8 assists. Sophomore guard Joey Chammaa (19.0 PPG) and senior guard Jalen Hampton (8.0 PPG) are both questionable for Wednesday’s game due to injuries.
The Red Wolves completely rebuilt their roster in the offseason. They rank 172nd in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency (106.7 points per 100 possessions) and 153rd in adjusted defensive efficiency (also 106.7).
Saint Mary’s looks unstoppable
The Saint Mary’s Gaels (4-0; 4-0 ATS; 3-1 O/U) have yet to hit the road in 2025-26. In their first four showings, the Gaels have dominated St. Thomas-Minnesota 84-58, Chattanooga 87-66, Ohio 90-60, and North Texas 80-49.
Last Friday, the Gaels bullied North Texas. Saint Mary’s was up 47-17 at halftime. The Gaels held the Mean Green to 23.8% shooting from the field and outrebounded their rivals 58-27 on the night. Sophomore guard Mikey Lewis led the charge with 23 points, while junior forward Paulius Murauskas double-doubled with 15 points and 11 rebounds.
Lewis is the Gaels’ leading scorer with 22.0 points per game. Murauskas tallies 17.0 points, 8.0 rebounds, and 4.3 assists a night, and sophomore guard Joshua Dent averages 9.3 points, 5.5 assists, and 3.0 boards.
The Gaels returned 38.1% of scoring and 32.0% of minutes played from their 2024-25 roster. They score 114.8 points per 100 possessions (55th in the country) and surrender just 96.2 points in return (13th).
Arkansas State vs. Saint Mary’s Pick
Spread Pick for Arkansas State vs. Saint Mary’s
- Saint Mary’s -18.5 (5 units)
The Red Wolves have a new head coach in Ryan Pannone, who’s been an assistant coach at Alabama over the last few years. Hereof, it’s no surprise that Arkansas State plays at a furious pace. The Red Wolves register 77.9 possessions per 40 minutes, enough for the fifth-most in the country.
Arkansas State doesn’t rely on 3-pointers. The Red Wolves love to attack the rim and are 29th in the nation in free-throw rate (.514). However, they turn the ball over a lot (302nd in turnover percentage, 21.0%), and the Red Wolves’ defense leaves a lot to be desired.
As I noted, this is a completely new Arkansas State team. On the other side, the Gaels already look like a well-oiled machine. Their defense has been outstanding thus far, and the Gaels make 44.8% of their shots from deep (10th in the country). I expect another dominant performance from Randy Bennett’s boys.
Over/Under Pick for Arkansas State vs. Saint Mary’s
- Over 147.5 (5 units)
The Red Wolves will need some time to gel. Their defense has struggled thus far, and Arkansas State is 316th in the country in opposing 2-point percentage (59.6%). The Red Wolves struggle to take care of the ball, so the Gaels won’t mind speeding things up in this matchup.
The Gaels record just 66.2 possessions per 40 minutes (358th). However, their offensive execution has been outstanding thus far, and I expect more of the same when the Red Wolves visit. The Gaels should surpass an 80-point mark with ease, given the Red Wolves’ defensive shortcomings. Give me the over.
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