Arkansas State vs SMU, Odds, Picks and Prediction for Friday, November 21, 2025
The Arkansas State Red Wolves (3-2) visit Dallas and the Moody Coliseum on Friday to play the SMU Mustangs (5-0). Arkansas State lost to St Mary's 85-72 on Wednesday night, snapping a two-game winning streak. SMU kept its perfect record intact when it defeated Arkansas-Pine Bluff 106-60 on Tuesday night. SMU has opened the season with five straight wins. Make sure to read this in-depth Arkansas State Red Wolves vs SMU Mustangs prediction. Court-side insights! Don’t miss our free NCAAB picks for the Arkansas State Red Wolves at SMU Mustangs prediction today.
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Arkansas State needs more offense, as its defense is weak
The Arkansas State Red Wolves are 218th in scoring, averaging 81.4 points per game, on 44.2% shooting overall and 27.9% shooting from 3-point territory, which rank 229th and 328th, respectively. Arkansas State's defense allows an average of 82.4 points per game, which is 243rd, on 47.4% shooting overall and 32.0% shooting from 3-point territory, which are 316th and 176th, respectively.
The top two active scorers for Arkansas State are Chandler Jackson, who averages 12.4 points per game on 47.6% shooting overall and 30.8% shooting from 3-point land, and TJ Caldwell, averaging 10.2 points per game on 38.6% shooting overall and 20.0% shooting from 3-point land. Arkansas State has one other player who averages double figures in scoring. Joey Chammaa was leading Arkansas State in scoring, averaging 19 points per game, but injured his leg in the second game of the season. Jaxon Ellingsworth is the leading rebounder at 5.2 boards per game. Jackson is the dish leader, averaging 4.2 assists per game, and Jalen Hampton is the leader in steals at 1.7 per game. Aly Tounkara is the rim protector, averaging 0.8 blocked shots per game.
Injuries: Joey Chammaa is out indefinitely
SMU is strong offensively, but could tighten its defense
The SMU Mustangs are 108th in scoring, averaging 92.0 points per game, on 50.3% (49th) shooting overall and 37.8% (67th) shooting from three-point territory. SMU’s defense allows an average of 74.0 points per game, which is 153rd. SMU is holding opponents to 39.8% (98th) shooting overall and 32.0% (179th) from three-point land.
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  David Hess | +1,568.00 |
| 2 |  Ben Burns | +982.00 |
| 3 |  Tony Karpinski | +572.00 |
| 4 |  Joe Duffy | +501.00 |
| 5 |  Ross Benjamin | +328.00 |
SMU’s top two scorers are Boogie Miller, who averages 20.0 points per game, on 49.1% shooting overall and 38.9% from 3-point territory. Jaron Pierre Jr is second in scoring, averaging 18.6 points per game on 47.0% shooting overall and 41.7% from 3-point territory. SMU has four other players who average double figures in scoring. SMU averages 40.2 rebounds per game, led by Samet Yigitoglu, who averages 7.8 boards per game and is also the rim protector, averaging 0.8 blocked shots per game. Miller is the leader in assists at 7.8 per game and steals at 2.2 per game
Injuries: SMU will play without Jaden Toombs
Arkansas State Red Wolves vs. SMU Mustangs Pick
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Earle Sports Bets | +2,298.00 |
| 2 | Ross Benjamin | +1,840.00 |
| 3 |  Rob Vincilleti | +1,757.00 |
| 4 | David Hess | +1,745.00 |
| 5 |  Dan Kaiser | +987.00 |
Spread Pick for Arkansas State vs. SMU
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SMU Mustang (4 units)
SMU is shooting well from 3-point territory at 37.8% per game. Leading scorer Boopie Miller is shooting 38.9% from 3. 3-point territory, and second leading scorer Jaron Pierre Jr. is hitting 41.7% of his shots from long range. SMU has balanced scoring, with six players scoring between 12.0 points and 20.0 points per game, making it difficult for opponents to defend any one or two players. Arkansas State is shooting 44.2% overall and only 27.9% from three-point territory, while allowing opponents to shoot 47.4% overall. SMU is 2-1 ATS over its last three games after opening 0-2 ATS but against two large double-digit spreads as the favorite. Arkansas State scores well at 81.4 per game, but allows even more at 82.4 per game, and faces a strong SMU offense that scores 92.0 points per game.
Over/Under Pick for Arkansas State vs. SMU
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Over ( units)
Both teams can score as Arkansas State averages 81.4 per game, and SMU is averaging 92 per game. The Red Wolves are allowing 82.4 per game, and the Mustangs allow 74 per game. The total has finished over in two of SMU’s last three games and in three of Arkansas State’s four games this season with a betting line. Arkansas State has an adjusted tempo per KenPom of 73.7, which is 35th, and SMU’s AdjT is 75th at 72.5. These two AdjTs are much more conducive to a high-scoring outcome.
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