Baylor Bears vs. TCU Horned Frogs Picks, Prediction, Odds and Line Movement for Saturday, January 3, 2026
It’s a conference tilt between foes from the Big 12 on the hardwood in the Lone Star State as the Baylor Bears take on the TCU Horned Frogs Saturday afternoon and we have you covered with our Baylor vs. TCU prediction. Baylor cruised to a 124-61 home win over Arlington Baptist Monday night in their previous contest, in a game with no posted line. TCU crushed Jackson State 115-64 at home in their previous contest Monday night, covering the line as a 31.5-point favorite. In the all-time series between the schools, the Bears own a 103-88 advantage, including a 61-58 road win in the most recent matchup, which came March 4, 2025. Read more about this Baylor vs. TCU prediction! Struggling with handicapping? Try our NCAAB Predictions!
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Baylor Seeking Fifth Straight Win
Baylor closed non-conference play with a flourish as they trounced Arlington Baptist at home Monday night. The Bears improved to 10-2 overall and look to maintain their momentum as conference play gets underway. Against Arlington Baptist, Baylor trailed just once, at 3-2, before going on a 22-2 run to take a 24-5 advantage with 14:27 to play in the first half. The rout was on from there as the Bears led 69-31 at the half and led by as many as 65 en route to the win. Baylor shot a scorching 73.5% from the floor, including five of 14 from three-point range, and dominated the glass by a 53-18 margin. Tounde Yessoufou led the Bears with 28 points, seven rebounds, five assists and six steals in the win.
The Bears enter this contest 5th in the country in scoring offense as they pile up 95.6 points per game. Baylor is 31st in rebounding as they pull down 41.8 boards per contest and are 25th by dishing out 18.8 assists per game. The Bears are slightly below average defensively, ranking 227th in the country in scoring defense by allowing 74.9 points a night. Cameron Carr is one of six Baylor players in double figures with 21.3 points plus 5.7 rebounds per game on the year. Tounde Yessoufou (19.3 points, 5.9 rebounds), Dan Skillings Jr. (12.4 points, 7.3 rebounds, 3.3 assists), Obi Agbim (11.7 points), Isaac Williams Jr. (11.7 points) and Michael Rataj (10.4 points, 6.6 rebounds) are solid secondary scoring options. Caden Powell, James Nnaji, Will Kuykendall and Drew Perry are all guys that are looked at to contribute when they are on the floor. Baylor is hitting 52.1% of their attempts from the floor this season, putting them 11th in the nation. The Bears knock down an average of 8.9 three-pointers a night (110th in the nation) while hitting 37.9% of their attempts from beyond the arc, which is 33rd in the country. Baylor is above average at the free throw line, where they are converting 75.5% of their chances, putting them 65th in the nation.
Key Injury Report for Baylor:
- Guard Obi Agbim (illness) is questionable.
Horned Frogs Shooting to Take Down In-State Rival
TCU earned their fifth straight win as they took down Jackson State at home in their non-conference finale. The Horned Frogs enter this game 10-3 on the year and look to take down an in-state rival in conference action here. Against Jackson State, TCU jumped in front 10-0 three minutes into the game and dominated things from there. The Horned Frogs were up 55-32 at the half and led by as many as 51 en route to the victory. TCU shot a blistering 65.2% from the field, including 13 of 27 from three-point range, and controlled the boards by a 36-26 margin in the contest. David Punch led the Horned Frogs with 20 points in the win.
On the year, TCU is above average on the offensive end of the floor as they are putting up an average of 80.3 points a night, putting them 123rd in the nation in scoring offense. The Horned Frogs are pulling down an average of 35.8 rebounds per contest while dishing out an average of 16.8 assists (72nd) a night. TCU has been above average on the defensive end of the floor as they allow an average of 64.7 points a contest, putting them 22nd in scoring defense. David Punch is one of three players averaging in double figures on the team with 14.2 points plus 7.7 rebounds per game on the season. Jayden Pierre (10.8 points), Xavier Edmonds (10.5 points, 4.2 rebounds) and Micah Robinson (9.8 points, 4.9 rebounds) are solid secondary scorers. Brock Harding, Liutaurus Lelevicius, Tanner Toolson, Jace Posey and Kayden Edwards all have to do more offensively for Jamie Dixon’s squad. As a team, TCU is shooting 46.8% from the field (123rd) on the year. The Horned Frogs are connecting on 7.8 three-pointers a game while shooting 33.8% from beyond the arc. TCU has been above average at the free throw line as they convert 73.8% of their attempts on the year, putting them 118th in the nation.
Key Injury Report for TCU:
- No Key Injuries
Baylor vs. TCU Pick
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Joe Duffy | +2,763.00 |
| 2 |  Tony Karpinski | +2,672.00 |
| 3 |  The Insiders Room | +2,420.00 |
| 4 |  Jackie Mack | +1,909.00 |
| 5 |  Mark Ruelle | +1,730.00 |
Baylor vs. TCU Moneyline Pick
- Baylor +105 (4 units)
Baylor is an explosive offensive team and are expected to have Nnaji in uniform after adding him to the roster. The Bears have been firing on all cylinders offensively and look to maintain their momentum here. Baylor lost their lone road game this season, falling 78-71 at Memphis December 6. TCU is 7-3 at home with those three defeats coming by a combined 10 points. The Horned Frogs hung tough in a four-point loss to Michigan but they also were upset by a New Orleans squad that is just 4-9 on the year in their opener. It’s tough to see TCU hanging with Baylor’s offensive firepower. Take the Bears here to earn a road victory.
Baylor vs. TCU Over/Under Pick
- Over 155.5 (4 units)
Baylor is 101st in defensive efficiency, 99th in effective field goal percentage defense (48.8%), 212th in forced turnover percentage (16.8%) and 227th in scoring defense. The Bears are 100th in adjusted tempo with 70.7 possessions a night. Baylor has gone over the number in nine of their 11 games with a posted total this season. TCU is solid defensively, ranking 81st in effective field goal percentage (48%), 87th in field goal percentage defense (41.5%), 62nd in two-point defense (46.6%) and 210th in three-point defense. The Horned Frogs are 221st in adjusted tempo with 68.4 possessions a night. TCU has seen the under post an 8-5 mark on the year. Look for Baylor’s offense to do damage here and push this game over the number.
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