Boise State Broncos vs San Diego State Aztecs Picks Picks and Prediction for Saturday, January 3, 2026
The Boise State Broncos (9-4, 1-1 Mountain West) visit the San Diego State Aztecs (8-4, 2-0 Mountain West) in a Mountain West matchup on Saturday at 10:00 PM ET. The game takes place at Viejas Arena and will be broadcast on CBSSN. Boise State last played New Mexico and won 62-53, while San Diego State earned an 81-68 road win against San Jose State. Both teams enter conference play with solid early results. Make sure to read this in-depth Boise State Broncos vs San Diego Aztecs prediction. Court-side insights! Don’t miss our free NCAAB picks for Boise State Broncos vs San Diego State Aztecs Picks prediction today.
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Boise State Looks to Slow the Game and Protect the Ball
The Boise State Broncos enter this matchup with a 9-4 overall record and a 1-1 mark in Mountain West play. Boise State averages 75.8 points per game, shooting 44% from the field, while allowing 69.1 points against. In the most recent game, Boise State defeated New Mexico 62-53 in a controlled performance that relied on half-court execution and defensive pressure. Drew Fielder led the way with steady interior scoring. Fielder averages 13.5 points and 5.2 rebounds per game.
Offensively, the Boise State Broncos distribute scoring across multiple players, with five averaging at least 9.2 points per game. Boise State averages 13.4 assists per contest and shoots 33.7% from three-point range, numbers that suggest a team comfortable moving the ball but not dependent on perimeter shooting. Dylan Andrews directs the offense with 3.8 assists per game, though Boise State commits 12.0 turnovers per game, an area that has appeared in losses like the 81-66 setback at Nevada.
Defensively, Boise State relies on positioning and rebounding rather than rim protection. The Broncos average 38.2 rebounds per game and limit opponents to under 70 points per outing. The recent five-game stretch includes four wins, with the lone loss coming against Nevada. That run included wins over Saint Mary’s and Butler, both competitive contests that required late-game execution. Boise State will need consistent shooting and fewer turnovers to stay competitive in this conference road game.
Injuries: Julian Bowie is questionable.
San Diego State Uses Depth and Defense to Control Matchups
The San Diego State Aztecs have an 8-4 overall record and are 2-0 in the Mountain West. San Diego State averages 81.9 points per game while shooting 48% from the field, and allows 72.1 points. In the most recent game, the Aztecs defeated San Jose State 81-68 on the road, continuing a stretch of four wins in the last five games. BJ Davis paced the offense with strong perimeter shooting. Davis is averaging 12.3 points per game.
San Diego State plays with pace, averaging 16.7 assists per game and 7.8 steals per contest. The Aztecs block 4.6 shots per game, with Magoon Gwath contributing 1.8 blocks per game and adding interior presence on both ends. Miles Heide leads the team in rebounding at 5.3 per game, while Taj DeGourville is the team leader in assists, averaging 2.7 per game.
Recent results show San Diego State handling mismatches decisively, including a 121-59 win over Whittier and an 89-71 victory against Lamar. The lone loss in the last five games came against Arizona, a 68-45 defeat in which shooting hurt throughout. At home, San Diego State has consistently pushed scoring totals higher, using strong shooting with active defense at the other end.
Injuries: San Diego State does not have any players listed on its injury report.
Boise State Broncos vs San Diego State Aztecs Picks Pick
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Tony Karpinski | +2,494.00 |
| 2 |  Joe Duffy | +1,859.00 |
| 3 |  The Insiders Room | +1,788.00 |
| 4 |  Mark Ruelle | +1,428.00 |
| 5 |  Jackie Mack | +1,400.00 |
Spread Pick for Boise State Broncos vs San Diego State Aztecs Picks
- San Diego State Aztecs (5 Units)
San Diego State holds statistical edges in scoring, assists, and on defense. The Aztecs average more than six additional points per game compared to Boise State and generate nearly three more assists per contest. Boise State’s offense has slowed games effectively, but turnovers remain an issue against teams that play a pressure defense. San Diego State’s recent form includes consistent scoring above 80 points, while Boise State has had lower-scoring outcomes. In this matchup, San Diego State’s home play and roster depth, using several players off the bench to keep the team fresh, will give the Aztecs a big advantage and a win at home.
Over/Under Pick for Boise State Broncos vs San Diego State Aztecs Picks
- Over (4 Units)
Both teams have scoring trends that support the over. San Diego State averages 81.9 points per game and has topped 80 points in four of the last five contests. Boise State averages 75.8 points per game and has scored at least 68 points in four of the last five games. While Boise State prefers controlled possessions and scores less than the Aztecs, San Diego State’s tempo and transition scoring opportunities will raise the overall pace. With both teams shooting above 44% from the field and combining for over 30 assists per game, the total will finish over on Saturday.
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