Buffalo vs. UMass Picks and Prediction for Saturday, February 21, 2026
Use Code WWWC On Saturday, the Buffalo Bulls will play the UMass Minutemen in a MAC basketball game, and we have you ready to go with our Buffalo vs. UMass prediction, odds, and preview. Tip-off from Amherst, MA, is at 6:00 p.m. ET.
The Minutemen are 7.5-point betting favorites, and the game total is 158 points scored.
Massachusetts beat Buffalo 68-67 on January 23, pulling off the upset as 1.5-point betting underdogs. The Minutemen were up 38-29 at halftime and led by as many as 20 points. The Bulls shot a higher percentage, but were outrebounded 36-28 and outscored 38-30 in the paint. It was the first matchup between these new conference opponents. If you want the Buffalo vs. UMass prediction, read on to get our top NCAAB predictions and increase your bankroll!
Bulls are a weak defensive team
Buffalo (15-11 SU, 14-10 ATS, and 13-11 O/U) lost 72-70 to Northern Illinois on Tuesday, failing to cover as 9.5-point spread favorites. The Bulls led 35-29 at the half, but couldn't sustain their defensive energy, allowing 43 second-half points. The Huskies outrebounded them 35-25 and knocked down 43 percent of their three-pointers to overcome a nine-point deficit.
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Buffalo started the season 13-2, but has dropped 9 of its last 11 games. The Bulls are 5-8 in MAC play, eight games back of Miami (OH) in the conference standings. KenPom ranks Buffalo 199th nationally, including 115th in offensive efficiency and 290th in defensive efficiency. UB averages 78.3 points per game (115th) on 47.6 percent shooting (50th), including 38.5 percent from three-point distance (13th). The Bulls allow 74.7 points per game (171st), and their opponents shoot 46.6 percent overall (310th), including 34.3 percent from beyond the arc (218th).
Sophomore guard Daniel Freitag paces Buffalo in scoring at 20.0 points per game with 4.5 rebounds and 3.9 dimes per game. The Wisconsin transfer last suited up on February 3 due to a concussion. A few Bulls to watch on Saturday against UMass are junior guard Ryan Sabol (18.2 PPG and 3.3 APG), senior guard Angelo Brizzi (13.4 PPG), and sophomore center Tim Oboh (8.2 PPG and 4.2 RPG).
Buffalo Bulls Injury Report:
- Freitag is questionable to play against Massachusetts.
UMass can score in bunches
UMass (15-12 SU, 11-15 ATS, and 16-10 O/U) lost 86-77 to Miami (OH) on Tuesday night, failing to cover as 2.5-point betting underdogs. The Minutemen shot 51 percent overall and 10-for-20 from three-point distance, but committed 13 turnovers. The RedHawks hit 50 percent of their field goals and scored 24 points at the foul line, 15 more than Massachusetts. The undefeated MAC frontrunners led for more than 90 percent of the game.
The Minutemen were picked to finish fifth in the MAC's preseason poll. They are led by fourth-year coach Frank Martin, who is 60-55 during his tenure in Amherst. He previously coached at Kansas State for five seasons and at South Carolina for ten seasons, leading his teams to five combined NCAA Tournament appearances and one Final Four (2017). UMass scores 80.9 points per game (113th) on 47.1 percent shooting (74th), including 36.0 percent from deep (76th). Defensively, the Minutemen surrender 77.0 points per game (232nd) on 45.1 percent shooting (244th), including 32.3 percent from long range (103rd).
Massachusetts is paced by senior forward Leonardo Bettiol, a transfer who spent the previous three seasons at Abilene Christian. He averages 17.6 points on 59.7 percent shooting and collects 7.8 rebounds per contest. A few other Minutemen players to watch in Saturday's conference clash with Buffalo are senior guard Marcus Banks Jr. (16.7 PPG and 39.2% 3PT%), junior guard K'Jei Parker (11.6 PPG and 43.3% 3PT%), and senior forward Daniel Hankins-Sanford (11.5 PPG and 7.3 RPG). KenPom ranks UMass as the 186th-best college basketball squad, including 168th in offensive efficiency and 209th in defensive efficiency.
UMass Minutemen Injury Report:
- No injuries to report.
Buffalo vs. UMass Pick and Preview
Spread Pick for Buffalo vs. UMass
- Bulls +7.5 (5 Units)
Buffalo hasn't been a good moneyline pick recently, but Massachusetts is not a good bet against the spread, leading me to the Bulls' side in Saturday's MAC clash. The Minutemen are just 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall and haven't covered as a betting favorite since early December against UMass Lowell. They have lost eight straight as betting favorites and are 3-12 ATS as spread favorites this season. Buffalo, meanwhile, is 3-1 ATS in its last four games as betting 'dogs and has been one of the best road teams in the country this season, ranking 7th nationally in Haslametrics' Away from Home metric. They will score plenty of points and cover the spread against a UMass team ranked 331st in defensive momentum.
Over/Under Pick for Buffalo vs. UMass
- Over 158 (4 Units)
This matchup projects to be high-scoring. The Minutemen have struggled defensively recently, but they aren't missing shots on the other end of the court. They scored 90-plus in three of their last four games and averaged 81.4 points in their last ten. The Bulls will struggle to cool them off, as they are weak on the perimeter (218th in 3PT defense) and in the paint (311th in near-proximity defense). They also rank outside the top 300 in points allowed off breakaway steals and opponent second-chance conversion percentage. On offense, expect the Bulls to keep pace against a weak Minutemen defense that's also outside the top 300 in points allowed off breakaway steals and near-proximity defense.
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