Cal Poly Mustangs vs UC Riverside Highlanders Picks and Prediction for Saturday, January 31, 2026
Use Code WWWC Cal Poly Mustangs (8-14, 4-6 Big West) face UC Riverside Highlanders (8-14, 3-7 Big West) in a Big West matchup scheduled for Saturday night. Cal Poly enters after a dominant 104-79 road win over CSU Bakersfield, while UC Riverside is coming off a 71-61 home win against Long Beach State. Both teams share the same overall record, but the recent form and scoring patterns create a clear contrast heading into this game. Elevate your game with our expert NCAAB picks for Cal Poly Mustangs vs UC Riverside Highlanders Picks prediction and win big!
Cal Poly Leans on Pace and Perimeter Scoring to Stay Competitive
The Cal Poly Mustangs enter this matchup with an 8-14 overall record and a 4-6 mark in Big West play. Cal Poly is averaging 80.9 points per game, one of the highest scoring outputs in the conference, but the defensive results have been a problem all season, with 86.4 points allowed per game. In the most recent game, Cal Poly overwhelmed CSU Bakersfield 104-79 on the road. Troy Plumtree poured in 31 points, and the Mustangs shot well while controlling the pace from the opening minutes. That performance followed a stretch where Cal Poly had lost three of four games, including a 107-67 loss at UC Santa Barbara and an 86-66 home loss to Hawaii.
Cal Poly’s offense runs through Hamad Mousa, who leads the team at 20.4 points per game while also pulling down 6.0 rebounds. Mousa’s ability to score from deep, where he shoots 38.4 percent on nearly three made threes per game, stretches defenses and creates space for others. Cayden Ward has been productive recently, averaging 14.1 points and 6.4 rebounds over the last 10 games. As a team, Cal Poly shoots 42.8 percent from the field, and the Mustangs rank near the top of the Big West in scoring. The issue is what happens on the other end, where Cal Poly allows opponents to shoot 46.5 percent from the field and gives up nearly 87 points per game, which keeps games fast and volatile.
Injuries: Cal Poly does not have any injuries to report
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UC Riverside Looks to Control Tempo and Protect Home Floor
The UC Riverside Highlanders also sit at 8-14 overall, but with a 3-7 conference record that reflects inconsistency in Big West play. UC Riverside averages 71.5 points per game while allowing 77.0, numbers that point to a slower, more controlled style compared to Cal Poly. In the most recent outing, UC Riverside defeated Long Beach State 71-61 at home. The Highlanders held Long Beach State to 61 points and used a steady half-court offense to close the game. That win followed a loss at UC Davis and continued a pattern where UC Riverside has alternated wins and losses across the last five games.
UC Riverside’s offense relies on Andrew Henderson, who averages 16.3 points per game and knocks down 2.7 three-pointers per contest. Henderson shoots 36.0 percent from beyond the arc and is the primary perimeter option. Marqui Worthy Jr. has also contributed to scoring recently, averaging 14.8 points over the past 10 games. UC Riverside shoots 43.8 percent from the field, slightly higher than Cal Poly’s percentage, but the Highlanders struggle when games turn into track meets. Over the last 10 games, UC Riverside is 2-8 while averaging just 67.7 points, and opponents have averaged 78.8. At home, UC Riverside has been competitive, but the margin for error stays thin when the offense stalls.
Injuries: UC Riverside does not have any injuries to report
Cal Poly Mustangs vs UC Riverside Highlanders Picks Pick
Spread Pick for Cal Poly Mustangs vs UC Riverside Highlanders Picks
- Â ( UC Riverside 4 units)
The case for UC Riverside is based on its controlled offense and tough defense. Cal Poly’s offense can explode, as shown in the 104-point effort against CSU Bakersfield, but that same stretch includes multiple losses where the Mustangs allowed over 85 points. UC Riverside has held opponents to 77.0 points per game on the season and just 61 in the most recent win. While Cal Poly averages 80.9 points, UC Riverside’s ability to slow the tempo at home and force half-court possessions favors the Highlanders. With Cal Poly allowing nearly 87 points per game, UC Riverside does not need an elite scoring night to win. A steady performance from Andrew Henderson and a controlled pace give UC Riverside the edge to secure the home win.
Over/Under Pick for Cal Poly Mustangs vs UC Riverside Highlanders Picks
- Â (Over 5 units)
This matchup points toward a higher-scoring outcome despite UC Riverside’s preference for slower games. Cal Poly games consistently push totals upward, with the Mustangs averaging 80.9 points and allowing 86.4. Over the last 10 games, Cal Poly opponents have averaged 86.8 points, showing how often games turn into shootouts. UC Riverside’s recent defensive effort against Long Beach State was strong, but the broader trend shows opponents averaging 78.8 points over the last 10 games. With Cal Poly’s perimeter shooting and UC Riverside’s defensive lapses against higher-paced teams, this game sets up for scoring on both sides once tempo increases, making the Over the stronger angle.
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