Cal Poly vs. USC Picks and Prediction for Monday, November 3, 2025
Use Code WWWC Cal Poly Mustangs (0-0) vs. USC Trojans (0-0)
The 2025-26 college basketball season tips off Monday, November 3, with a massive slate, and in this preview, we are breaking down the non-conference clash from Galen Center in Los Angeles, CA, to get you the Cal Poly vs. USC prediction.
The Mustangs meet the Trojans for the first time since 2015, when USC beat Cal Poly 101-82 as a 9-point fave. The Trojans are huge 23.5-point home favorites for Monday’s clash, while the total sits at 162.5 points.
Now, let’s take a closer look at this Cal Poly vs. USC prediction, one of our NCAAB picks for Monday’s huge card. The tip-off at Galen Center is set at 9:30 PM ET.
Under Mike DeGeorge, Cal Poly has high hopes
The Cal Poly Mustangs went 16-19 overall in 2024-25, winning the most games since the 2012-13 season, when they were over .500 for the last time. The Mustangs went 8-12 in conference play last season, before reaching the Big West Championship semifinals.
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Cal Poly ranked 124th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency (108.9 points per 100 possessions) and 266th in adjusted defensive efficiency (111.1). The Mustangs played at the third-fastest pace in the nation, tallying 74.7 possessions per 40 minutes.
It was Mike DeGeorge’s first year at the helm, and the Mustangs hoped for another solid season. Cal Poly returns 34.6% of scoring and 38.0% of minutes played from their 2024-25 roster. The Mustangs lost their top scorers, Owen Koonce (16.9 PPG, 4.8 RPG) and Jarred Hyder (14.5 PPG, 3.2 APG).
The 6-foot-4 guard Peter Bandelj is back for his sophomore season. He was excellent as a freshman, notching 10.4 points, 4.3 rebounds, and 2.3 assists per game. Also back is sophomore guard Cayden Ward, who averaged 7.4 points and 3.8 boards.
USC was a huge disappointment in 2024-25
After going 15-18 in 2023-24, the USC Trojans decided to part ways with Andy Enfield. They acquired Eric Musselman as their new head coach, but the 2024-25 season brought another disappointment, as the Trojans went 17-18 overall and 7-13 in conference play. It was their first year in the Big Ten Conference.
The Trojans were scoring 116.6 points per 100 possessions this past season (39th in the country) while surrendering 101.5 points in return (87th). They ranked 118th in the country in pace (68.6 possessions per 40 minutes) and 46th in 3-point percentage (36.5%).
USC has undergone a massive overhaul of the roster, returning just 3.2% of minutes played from the previous season. The 6-foot-6 guard Alijah Arenas is a five-star recruit, but he’s out with a knee injury. Hereof, the Trojans will lean on a couple of big transfers, junior guard Rodney Rice and senior forward Chad Baker-Mazara.
Rice spent the last season at Maryland, tallying 13.8 points per game, while Baker-Mazara averaged 12.3 points and 3.0 rebounds with Auburn. Baker-Mazara was one of the best defensive players in the nation in 2024-25.
Cal Poly vs. USC Pick
Spread Pick for Cal Poly vs. USC
- USC -23.5 (5 units)
The Mustangs have a lot of freshmen on their roster. As I noted, the Mustangs lost a couple of key players from their 2024-25 roster, and Cal Poly failed to replace them in the transfer portal.
On the other side, the Trojans were quite busy, but they will need some time to gel. I like the acquisition of Chad Baker-Mazara because the Trojans struggled to defend last season.
I don’t think that the Mustangs are as good as they were in 2024-25. Hereof, I will go with the Trojans on opening night. USC should dominate Cal Poly in the paint, so keep your eyes on senior forward Terrance Williams (10.6 PPG, 4.6 RPG), who’s back from a wrist injury.
Over/Under Pick for Cal Poly vs. USC
- Over 162.5 (5 units)
As I mentioned, the Mustangs played at a furious pace last season. They will continue to push the ball in transition whenever they can and lean on 3-pointers. Cal Poly ranked fifth in the country in 3-point rate (.511) in 2024-25.
The Trojans won’t mind joining the party. They will attack the rim and control the glass against the Mustangs, who were 323rd in the nation in defensive rebound percentage (66.8%) last season. Hereof, give me the over on the total.
The over is 15-5 in Cal Poly’s last 20 road games, and it is 7-2 in USC’s previous nine showings at home.
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