Cal State Bakersfield vs. UC Davis Picks and Prediction for Saturday, January 3, 2026
On Saturday, the Cal State Bakersfield Roadrunners will play the UC Davis Aggies in a Big West Conference basketball game, and we have you ready to go with our Cal State Bakersfield vs UC Davis prediction, odds, and preview. Tip-off University Credit Union Center in Davis, CA, is at 5:00 p.m. ET.
The Aggies are 11-point spread favorites, and the game total is 154.5 points scored.
These schools played twice last season, and the Roadrunners won both games. Bakersfield has won three straight in the series after losing the previous seven games. If you want the Cal State Bakersfield vs. UC Davis prediction, read on to get our top NCAAB predictions and increase your bankroll!
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Cal State Bakersfield seeks its first Big West win
Cal State Bakersfield (6-9 SU, 5-8 ATS, and 6-6-1 O/U) lost 81-77 to UC Irvine on Thursday, covering the spread as 11.5-point underdogs. The Roadrunners, who dropped to 0-3 in Big West competition, shot 40 percent from the field. They won the turnover battle, narrowly outscored the Anteaters in the paint, and dominated on the glass (20 offensive rebounds), but weren't efficient enough offensively to pull off the home upset.
Senior guard Dailin Smith leads Cal State Bakersfield in scoring at 15.5 points per game. He shoots 34.6 percent overall, including 19.0 percent from beyond the arc. A few other Roadrunners to watch on Saturday against UC Davis are senior guard CJ Hardy (14.6 PPG and 4.5 RPG), junior forward Ronald Jessamy (12.7 PPG and 6.3 RPG), and senior guard AJ George (7.6 PPG and 4.2 RPG).
Cal State Bakersfield averages 78.4 points per game (232nd) on 42.3 percent shooting (310th), including 28.7 percent from three-point range (348th). The Roadrunners' defense surrenders 83.4 points per game (304th) on 45.5 percent shooting (283rd), including 32.4 percent from beyond the arc (158th). KenPom ranks Cal State Bakersfield 303rd nationally, including 297th in offensive efficiency rating and 292nd in defensive efficiency rating.
Cal State Bakersfield Roadrunners Injury Report:
- No injuries to report.
UC Davis is tough to defend around the rim
UC Davis (8-5 SU, 7-4 ATS, and 7-4 O/U) beat Cal State Northridge 89-80 on Thursday, covering as 3.5-point spread favorites. The Aggies, who improved to 1-1 in conference play, led for 76 percent of the game. They shot 51 percent overall, including 15-for-30 from three-point distance. They were outrebounded and outscored in the paint, but never trailed the Matadors by more than five points.
Junior guard Connor Sevilla leads UC Davis in scoring, averaging 14.8 points on 49.6 percent shooting. He also shoots 87 percent at the foul line and 44 percent from beyond the arc. A few other Aggies to watch against Cal State Bakersfield are junior guard Nils Cooper (14.4 PPG and 4.7 RPG), freshman guard Marcus Wilson (10.3 PPG and 3.5 APG), and sophomore forward Isaiah Chappell (10.3 PPG and 4.5 RPG).
UC Davis averages 87.2 points per game (78th) on 47.9 percent shooting (75th), including 35.0 percent from three-point range (130th). The Aggies' defense allows 81.1 points per game (274th) on 44.3 percent shooting (236th), including 35.0 percent from beyond the arc (273rd). KenPom ranks UC Davis 158th nationally, including 149th in offensive efficiency rating and 176th in defensive efficiency rating.
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  The Insiders Room | +1,793.00 |
| 2 |  Tony Karpinski | +1,731.00 |
| 3 |  Jesse Schule | +1,599.00 |
| 4 |  Rob Vinciletti | +1,284.00 |
| 5 |  David Delano | +1,232.00 |
UC Davis Aggies Injury Report:
- No injuries to report.
Cal State Bakersfield vs. UC Davis Pick and Preview
Spread Pick for Cal State Bakersfield vs. UC Davis
- Aggies -11 (5 Units)
I believe UC Davis will win comfortably and that this spread is too small. The Roadrunners haven't been reliable on the road (288th in Haslametrics' Away from Home metric), and they rank 307th in Haslametrics' All-Play Metric, too. They are outside the top-300 in near-proximity shooting percentage, three-point percentage, and field goal percentage vs the average opponent. The Aggies won't dominate most teams on their schedule, but they will put away Bakersfield early and coast to the win. They are battle-tested (55th in schedule strength) and will punish the Roadrunners' defense around the rim, where they shoot 67.4 percent vs the average opponent, 22nd-highest in the country.
Cal State Bakersfield ranks 303rd nationally in NET rating, while UC Davis is 158th. The Aggies will win easily at home on Saturday, covering the spread in a blowout win.
Over/Under Pick for Cal State Bakersfield vs. UC Davis
- Under 154.5 (4 Units)
I lean towards the under in Saturday's Big West game between Cal State Bakersfield and UC Davis.
I don't expect the Roadrunners to have much success on the offensive end, as their shooting woes are unlikely to improve on the road against a conference foe. They shoot a very low percentage at the rim and will struggle in the mid-range against UC Davis (4th nationally in opponent mid-range shooting percentage). That will put too much pressure on the visitors to knock down threes, which isn't a sound strategy, especially for a squad that shoots 28 percent from downtown. With the Roadrunners struggling to score, the over will be a tough wager to cash. I expect the home team to coast the last few minutes of the game with a comfortable lead, as well.
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