Cincinnati Bearcats vs Xavier Musketeers Prediction and Picks - December 5, 2025
Use Code WWWC College hoops action on Friday evening, and we have a Cincinnati vs Xavier prediction ready to rock and roll. The Barcats enter this contest off a 76-58 home win over Tarleton State to move to 6-2 on the year. Xavier is off a 96-74 home win over St Francis Pa, and they are now 6-3 on the season. Cincinnati won last year's meeting 68-65 at home. Continue reading to see our Cincinnati vs Xavier prediction.
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Bearcats Rip Tarleton State At Home
Cincinnati’s most recent game was a 76–58 win over Tarleton State on December 1, where Kerr Kriisa scored 20 points and Day Day Thomas added 19 with six assists. Baba Miller chipped in a double‑double with 13 points and 11 rebounds, and the Bearcats pulled away in the second half with a 45–29 run.
The Bearcats have leaned on their defense all season, holding opponents to just 63.4 points per game (17th nationally) while limiting them to 37.2% shooting from the field. That defensive identity has been critical, especially when the offense has been streaky. Cincinnati averages 75.5 points per game and shoots 43.1% overall, but their three‑point percentage sits at 31.8%, which has been a weakness. Miller has been the most consistent scorer at 14.2 points and 10.2 rebounds per game, while Thomas provides backcourt leadership and Kriisa adds perimeter shooting and playmaking.
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Rebounding has been a strength, with Cincinnati pulling down 38.5 boards per game, and their ability to force turnovers (17.5 per game) has fueled transition scoring. The Bearcats’ physicality inside with Miller and Moustapha Thiam gives them size advantages, but foul trouble and free‑throw shooting (64.6%) remain concerns. Heading into the Crosstown Shootout, Cincinnati will rely on its defense and rebounding to slow down Xavier’s perimeter attack, hoping to grind out another rivalry win.
Roddie Anderson Powers Xavier Past St Francis
Xavier’s last game was a 96–74 win over Saint Francis (PA) on December 1, where Roddie Anderson erupted for 28 points on 10‑of‑16 shooting, Tre Carroll added 21 points and six rebounds, and All Wright chipped in 15. The Musketeers shot nearly 50% from the field and dominated the glass with a 41–30 rebounding edge.
The Musketeers have been one of the better offensive teams in the Big East early on, averaging 78.7 points per game while shooting 38.4% from three (27th nationally). Carroll leads the team at 15.9 points per game, while Anderson has been a dynamic scorer and playmaker. Jovan Milicevic adds size and shooting from the frontcourt, and Wright provides balance in the backcourt. Xavier’s ball movement has been excellent, averaging 18.4 assists per game (30th nationally), and their ability to spread the floor with multiple shooters has made them dangerous.
Defensively, Xavier has been less consistent, allowing 72.8 points per game and opponents to shoot 46.9% from the field (312th nationally). They’ve struggled at times to defend inside, but their perimeter defense has been stronger, holding opponents to 30.6% from three. Rebounding has improved during their recent three‑game winning streak, and their low turnover rate (9.7 per game) has kept them efficient. At home in the Cintas Center, where they’ve beaten Cincinnati 10 straight times, the Musketeers will look to ride their hot shooting and Anderson’s scoring surge to extend their streak in the Crosstown Shootout.
Cincinnati vs Xavier Pick
Cincinnati vs Xavier Spread Pick
- Xavier -2.5 (5 Units)
Xavier -2.5 looks like the right side because the Musketeers have been rolling offensively and enter this Crosstown Shootout with confidence after their 96–74 win over Saint Francis (PA). Roddie Anderson dropped 28 points, Tre Carroll added 21, and the team shot nearly 50% from the field while hitting double‑digit threes. That kind of balance has been their calling card, as Xavier averages 78.7 points per game and ranks among the nation’s best in three‑point shooting at 38.4% (27th nationally). Carroll and Anderson give them two reliable scorers, while Jovan Milicevic stretches defenses with his size and shooting. At home in the Cintas Center, where Xavier has dominated this rivalry for a decade, their offensive firepower and ball movement (18.4 assists per game) should give them the edge.
Cincinnati has leaned on defense all season, holding opponents to just 63.4 points per game (17th nationally), but their offense has been inconsistent, shooting only 43.1% from the field and 31.8% from three. Baba Miller has been their most reliable option, averaging a double‑double, but the Bearcats often struggle to keep pace when opponents push tempo. Xavier’s ability to spread the floor and knock down threes puts pressure on Cincinnati’s offense to respond, and that’s not their strength. With Anderson in rhythm, Carroll leading the frontcourt, and Xavier’s perimeter shooting clicking, the Musketeers are well positioned to cover the small number at -2.5 and extend their home dominance in this rivalry.
Cincinnati vs Xavier Over/Under Pick
- Over 144.5 (4 Units)
The Over 144.5 makes sense in this Crosstown Shootout because both Xavier and Cincinnati bring contrasting strengths that can combine for a high‑scoring rivalry game. Xavier averages 78.7 points per game and shoots 38.4% from three (27th nationally), with Roddie Anderson and Tre Carroll capable of putting up big numbers, while Cincinnati scores 75.5 points per game and leans on Baba Miller inside along with Kerr Kriisa’s perimeter shooting. The Bearcats’ defense has been strong, holding opponents to 63.4 points per game, but Xavier’s pace and efficiency from deep will force them into a faster tempo. Add in the intensity of this rivalry and the fact that both teams have multiple scoring options in double figures, and the Over 144.5 looks well supported by the numbers.
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