Cleveland State vs Missouri, Picks and Prediction for Friday, November 28, 2025
Use Code WWWC Head coach Dennis Gates will welcome his former program to town as the Missouri Tigers (7-0) host the Cleveland State Vikings (3-5) on Friday in an early non-conference matchup.
Gates led Cleveland State from 2019 to 2022, a tenure that included an NCAA Tournament appearance and an NIT berth. Now in his fourth season at Missouri, he’s coming off a 22–12 campaign and continues to build momentum with the Tigers.
Shaky start
Cleveland State enters this game after a 109–56 win over Waynesburg, a non–Division I opponent, on Tuesday. The Vikings still have plenty to prove, sitting just 1–5 against Division I teams this season. Their most recent game against a worthy opponent was a 91–71 loss to Kent State on November 22. Trey Beard, a 5’10” guard averaging a team-best 15.5 points per game, has missed the last two contests. Dayan Nessah is also averaging 15.5 points and adds 6.1 rebounds per game, while Josiah Harris leads the team on the glass with 7.9 rebounds and contributes 10.1 ppg.
KenPom ranks Cleveland State 299th nationally. The Vikings play fast (36th in tempo) but have struggled tremendously on defense (353rd). On offense, they are 187th in adjusted offensive efficiency.
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Tigers undefeated
Missouri enters undefeated and ranked 33rd in the nation by KenPom. The Tigers sit 14th in offensive efficiency, 92nd in defensive efficiency, and 135th in tempo. Their schedule hasn’t been demanding enough to mirror the battles ahead of them in the SEC, but they’ve handled everyone placed in front of them, most recently rolling past South Carolina State 98–66. After this matchup, Missouri will start December with a road game at Notre Dame, followed by a home showdown with Kansas.
The Tigers have used their depth early, experimenting with different rotations against lesser opponents. Guard Mark Mitchell leads Missouri with 18.1 points per game, 6.3 rebounds, and a team-best 3.4 assists. Jayden Stone ranks second in scoring at 13.3 points per game, while 7-footer Sean Phillips has held it down inside with a team-best 7.6 rebounds and adds 10.4 ppg.
Cleveland State Vikings vs Missouri Tigers Predictions
Cleveland State vs Missouri ATS Pick:
- Missouri -29 (4 unit)
Gates still holds plenty of affection for Cleveland State, but that won’t translate into Missouri taking this matchup lightly. If anything, this will be a bigger game for Missouri than it would normally be.
The Vikings simply haven’t shown much to get excited about, especially with one of the bottom-15 defenses in the country and a pace that often works against them. Missouri is too deep and will wear the Vikings down. With the quick tempo, the Tigers will have plenty of chances to stretch this margin, and I have to take Missouri to cover the big number.
Cleveland State vs Missouri Total Pick:
- OVER 171 (4 units)
Both teams want to get up and down the floor, and both are more comfortable scoring than defending. Missouri is a top-15 offensive squad and Cleveland State is a bottom-15 defensive team. The Vikings are also 35th in pace of play. With the pace expected to be high, Missouri could flirt with the century mark on its own. That combination makes the over the play.
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