Colorado State vs. Grand Canyon Pick and Prediction for Saturday, January 3, 2026
The Colorado State Rams (9-4, 0-2 MW) travel to Phoenix to face the Grand Canyon Lopes (8-4, 1-0 MW) in a pivotal Mountain West showdown. Tip-off is set for Saturday at 8:00 PM ET (6:00 PM local) at Global Credit Union Arena.
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This is the first-ever meeting between these two programs. Grand Canyon, a newcomer to the Mountain West, is looking to make a statement in its conference home debut, while Colorado State is desperate to snap a two-game skid and secure its first conference win. The Lopes are 3.5-point favorites, with the total set at 144.5. Get the best college basketball picks at Winners and Whiners.
Rams struggling with key injuries
Colorado State enters this matchup significantly shorthanded. The Rams' high-powered offense, which led the nation in several shooting categories early in the season, has been hampered by the absence of star center Kyle Jorgensen (13.8 PPG). Without Jorgensen’s presence in the middle, CSU’s field goal percentage plummeted to 37.3% in their last outing against Nevada.
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The Rams are also likely to be without 6'7" forward Rashaan Mbemba, who has been out since late November. This leaves a massive void in the frontcourt that Carey Booth (6.8 RPG, 6 blocks last game) will have to fill. For the Rams to be competitive, they will need a bounce-back shooting performance from Josh Pascarelli, who has the potential to get hot from deep (8-for-11 3PT earlier this year vs. Colorado).
Lopes ready for Mountain West home debut
Grand Canyon comes into this game fresh after an 11-day break, a situation where head coach Bryce Drew has been historically dominant (3-0 with 12+ days of prep). The Lopes have won 38 of their last 40 home games, making Global Credit Union Arena one of the toughest environments in the Western United States.
The Lopes feature a balanced attack led by Jaden Henley (17.8 PPG) and Makaih Williams (11.5 PPG). Their primary advantage in this matchup is in the paint; 6'9" forward Nana Owusu-Anane ranks among the nation's best rebounders at 9.2 RPG. With CSU's frontcourt depleted, Owusu-Anane could dominate the offensive glass and create crucial second-chance opportunities for a GCU team that thrives on energy and transition play.
Spread pick for Colorado State vs. Grand Canyon
- Grand Canyon -3.5 (-115)
The combination of CSU’s injury woes and GCU’s home dominance makes the Lopes the strong play here. Colorado State is currently a "shell" of the team that beat Colorado and Wichita State earlier this year, struggling to find offensive rhythm without Jorgensen. Grand Canyon has had nearly two weeks to prepare specifically for this matchup and will be fueled by an electric home crowd in their first MW home game. Take the Lopes to cover the small spread.
Total pick for Colorado State vs. Grand Canyon
- Under 144.5 (-105)
While Colorado State typically plays a fast-paced game, their offensive efficiency has dipped significantly over the last two weeks. Grand Canyon’s defense has been on an upward trend, holding opponents to 41.7% shooting over their last seven games. Given the potential for "rust" from the Lopes after a long layoff and the Rams' recent shooting struggles, this game has the look of a 72-65 battle that stays under the 144.5 total.
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