Dayton Flyers vs. Cincinnati Bearcats Picks and Prediction for Tuesday, November 11, 2025
Use Code WWWC It’s a matchup of programs from the Buckeye State on the hardwood and it brings a non-conference tilt between foes from the Atlantic 10 and the Big 12 on the hardwood as the Dayton Flyers take on the Cincinnati Bearcats Tuesday night and we have you covered with our Dayton vs. Cincinnati prediction. Dayton comes in off a 77-71 home win over UMBC Saturday in their previous game, failing to cover the line as a 25.5-point favorite. Cincinnati downed Georgia State 74-64 at home in their previous contest Friday night, failing to cover the line as a 29.5-point favorite. In the all-time series between the schools, the Bearcats own a 61-31 advantage, including a 66-59 win at home in the most recent matchup on December 20, 2024. Read more about this Dayton vs. Cincinnati prediction! Struggling with handicapping? Try our NCAAB Predictions!
Dayton Seeking to Start Season 3-0
Dayton had a tougher-than-expected challenge in their previous game against UMBC, but managed to come away with the victory. The Flyers improved to 2-0 on the year and look to take down their in-state rival in this contest. Against UMBC, Dayton led by as many as 12 in the first half before settling for a four-point margin at the half. The Flyers gave up a 15-5 run to start the second half, leaving them down 52-46 with 14:48 to play. Dayton took the lead for good on Keonte Jones’ layup with 7:57 to play to break a 59-59 tie and went on to win. The Flyers shot 51% from the floor, including six of 19 from three-point range, and forced 15 turnovers in the victory. Javon Bennett led Dayton with 16 points and seven assists in the win.
The Flyers come into this contest putting up 82.5 points per game, which is 162nd in the nation, on the season. Dayton pulls down 30 rebounds per contest and hands out 15.5 assists per game on the year. The Flyers are above average defensively, ranking 44th in scoring defense as they give up an average of 59.5 points per game. Javon Bennett leads the team with 18 points and 4.5 assists per game. Amael L’Etang (14 points, six rebounds) and De’Shayne Montgomery (13.5 points, 3.5 assists, four steals) are solid contributors. Keonte Jones, Jaiun Simon, Jacob Conner, Bryce Heard, Jordan Derkack, Damon Friery, Evan Dickey and Malcolm Thomas are important role players for coach Anthony Grant. Dayton shoots 52% from the field as a team on the year, which is 48th in Division i. The Flyers sink six three-pointers a game while shooting 27.9% from beyond the arc, which is 285th in the nation. Dayton is shooting 72.3% at the free-throw line this season, putting them 153rd in the nation.
Bearcats Look to Take Down In-State Rival
Cincinnati battled and downed Georgia State in their previous contest to remain unbeaten on the year as they take the floor here. The Bearcats ran their record to 2-0 on the season and look to drop the Flyers for the second straight season. Against Georgia State, Cincinnati trailed by six early before going on a 13-0 run to go up 19-12 and never let the Panthers even again. The Bearcats led by nine at the half and by as many as 15 in the second half en route to the win. Cincinnati shot 40.3% from the floor, including seven of 31 from three-point range, and held a 40-35 margin on the boards. Baba Miller led the Bearcats with 24 points and 11 rebounds in the victory.
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The Bearcats are putting up an average of 84 points per game this season, which is 137th in the nation. Cincinnati pulls down 38 rebounds per contest (203rd) and dishes out 17.5 assists a night, which is 105th in Division I. The Bearcats are above average on the defensive end, ranking 84th in the nation in scoring defense by allowing 63.5 points per game. Baba Miller is one of four players averaging double-figure points a night as he averages 21 points plus 10.5 rebounds per game this season. Moustapha Thiam (14 points, seven rebounds) and Shon Abaev (11 points) are solid scoring options as well. Day Day Thomas (10 points, 3.5 assists), Sencire Harris, Kerr Kriisa, Jordi Rodriguez, Jalen Celestine, Keyshaun Tillery, Tyler McKinley, and Halvine Dzellat are all important pieces for Wes Miller and the Bearcats this season. Cincinnati shoots 47.1% from the floor as a team on the year, putting them 152nd in the nation. The Bearcats knock down 8.5 three-pointers a night while sinking 28.8% of their attempts, putting them 270th in the country. Cincinnati has been weak at the line this season as they have posted a mediocre 66.1% mark at the charity stripe to date, which is 268th in Division I.
Dayton vs. Cincinnati Pick
Dayton vs. Cincinnati Spread Pick
- Cincinnati -6.5 (4 units)
Both teams are 2-0 on the year and come in off tougher-than-expected wins in their previous contests. Dayton has been sound defensively in the first two games but they have had their struggles when it comes to facing Cincinnati in their history. Miller has been terrific in his first two games, posting a double-double in both contests this season. The Bearcats are at home, and Dayton’s last win against Cincinnati in a true road game came March 22, 2010, in the second round of the NIT. Dayton shoots the ball well, but Cincinnati is better on the glas,s and with Miller leading the way, you have to give the Bearcats the edge here.
Dayton vs. Cincinnati Over/Under Pick
- Under 146.5 (4 units)
Dayton comes into this game having stayed under the number in their first two games this season. The Flyers stand 53rd in defensive efficiency, 18th in forced turnover percentage (26.3%), 24th in opposing free throw rate (.194) and 59th in two-point defense (41.3%) on the year. Dayton is a slow-paced squad, ranking 350th in adjusted tempo according to KenPom with 68.3 possessions a game. Cincinnati has split their two games on the year. The Bearcats are fifth in defensive efficiency, 46th in effective field goal percentage defense (42.6%), 24th in forced turnover percentage (25.1%), and 67th in field goal percentage defense (36.4%) this season. Cincinnati is 108 in adjusted tempo with 72.9 possessions a night. With two good defensive teams and Dayton likely to slow the tempo here, this game ends up under the number.
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