Dayton Flyers vs Duquesne Dukes Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Tuesday January 13, 2026
Use Code WWWC The Dayton Flyers (12-4, 3-0 A-10) travel to Pittsburgh on Tuesday night to take on the Duquesne Dukes (9-7, 1-2 A-10) in an Atlantic 10 matchup featuring a red-hot conference contender against a team trying to steady itself early in league play.
Dayton has opened A-10 action with three straight wins and enters as a short road favorite, while Duquesne is looking to bounce back after back-to-back overtime losses in conference play.
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Dayton looking to stay perfect in A-10 play
Dayton has been one of the most consistent teams in the Atlantic 10 through the first half of the season. The Flyers sit 74th nationally on KenPom and bring balance on both ends of the floor, ranking 127th in offensive efficiency and 190th defensively overall, with defensive numbers improving in conference play.
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Offensively, Dayton is patient and efficient. The Flyers shoot 54.8% on two-point attempts and rank top-10 nationally in free-throw rate, a key factor in close road games. They don’t rely heavily on the three-point shot, but when defenses collapse, Dayton is comfortable living at the line and grinding out possessions.
Javon Bennett leads the Flyers at 16.8 points per game, while De’Shayne Montgomery adds 14.9 PPG and is one of the more disruptive defenders in the league, averaging 2.8 steals per game. Amael L’Etang anchors the interior with 6.5 rebounds and 1.2 blocks per game, giving Dayton a reliable presence around the rim.
Duquesne searching for defensive answers
Duquesne has flashed offensive upside this season, but consistency — especially on the defensive end — has been an issue. The Dukes rank 140th on KenPom, boosted by an offense that sits 120th in adjusted efficiency but held back by a defense that struggles to get stops.
The Dukes play fast and attack early in the shot clock, ranking top-50 nationally in average possession length. They shoot the ball well, posting a 56.1% effective field goal percentage, but turnovers have been a major concern. Duquesne ranks near the bottom nationally in turnover rate, a troubling matchup against Dayton’s aggressive perimeter defense.
Tarence Guinyard is the focal point, averaging 16.9 points and 5.2 assists per game, while John Hugley IV (15.4 PPG) provides scoring inside. Jimmie Williams adds energy on both ends, contributing 15.1 points and 1.6 steals per game, but Duquesne will need cleaner execution to keep pace with one of the league’s most disciplined teams.
Dayton vs Duquesne Predictions
Dayton vs Duquesne ATS Pick:
- Dayton -4.5 (4 units)
This matchup favors Dayton’s strengths. The Flyers’ ability to force turnovers and consistently get to the free-throw line puts pressure on a Duquesne team that has struggled defensively in conference play. While Duquesne can score, relying on pace and shot-making against Dayton’s pressure is risky. If this game is close late, Dayton’s experience and efficiency give them the edge to pull away; and I expect that to happen. Take Dayton to continue its strong conference start with a road win, using defense and discipline to wear down the Dukes.
Dayton vs Duquesne Total Pick:
- Over 152.5 (4 units)
Duquesne’s tempo and scoring ability should push possessions, while Dayton’s free-throw rate creates points even when the game slows down. If Duquesne avoids prolonged scoring droughts, this has the makings of a higher-scoring A-10 game, especially if fouls pile up late.
Take the over.
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