Dayton Flyers vs UNC Wilmington Seahawks Picks and Predictions for Saturday, March 21, 2026
Use Code WWWC Dayton travels to UNC Wilmington for an NIT second-round matchup at Trask Coliseum in Wilmington, North Carolina, on Saturday at 7:00 PM ET on ESPN+. Dayton is 24-11 and coming off an 80-66 win over Bradley in the first round, while UNC Wilmington is 27-6 after a 68-67 win over Yale to open the tournament. The Flyers bring a balanced backcourt attack, while the Seahawks rely on rebounding and half-court execution at home. Let’s cash another ticket with our free college basketball picks.
Dayton Relies on Guard Play and Perimeter Scoring
Dayton averages 74.5 points per game and allows 69.8, with the offense centered around Javon Bennett and a guard-heavy rotation. Bennett leads the Flyers in scoring at 16.5 points per game and also leads the team in assists at 2.9 while shooting nearly 90% from the free-throw line. De’Shayne Montgomery adds 13.4 points and leads the team in steals at 2.2, giving Dayton another strong two-way guard. Amaël L’Etang controls the paint with 12.0 points and a team-high 5.9 rebounds per game while also leading the Flyers in blocks at 1.2.
The Bradley game showed how effective Dayton can be when the guards control the pace. Bennett scored 25 points and hit five three-pointers, including 17 points in the first half as Dayton built a 47-30 lead. Montgomery added 14 points, and Bryce Heard chipped in 12 points on perfect shooting. Dayton shot well and maintained control throughout, extending the lead with a 15-3 run in the second half. That type of scoring balance is key in this matchup because UNC Wilmington will try to slow the tempo and force longer possessions.
Dayton needs good shot selection and to limit turnovers. The Flyers average 14.3 assists and rely on spacing and perimeter shooting to create offense. If Bennett and Montgomery can avoid turnovers and keep the offense flowing, Dayton can pressure UNC Wilmington’s defense. The Flyers also generate 8.3 steals per game, which gives them a way to create extra possessions, but they must match UNC Wilmington’s physical presence on the glass.
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Key Injuries - Dayton Flyers
- Evan Dickey - Game Time Decision
- Jaron McKie - Out
UNC Wilmington Has the Rebounding Edge at Home
UNC Wilmington averages 76.8 points per game and allows 67.7, and the Seahawks are strongest when they control the glass and limit second chances. Nolan Hodge leads the team in scoring at 14.4 points per game, while Patrick Wessler anchors the frontcourt with 13.6 points and 9.6 rebounds per game. Greedy Williams leads the team in assists at 4.2 and adds 9.2 points, giving UNC Wilmington a steady ball handler who can manage the tempo.
The win over Yale highlighted how UNC Wilmington can win tight games. Christian May led the Seahawks with 16 points and eight rebounds, including a go-ahead three-pointer in the final minute. Hodge added 13 points, all in the second half, while Madison Durr also scored 13. UNC Wilmington trailed at halftime but closed strong, showing composure in a one-possession game. That late-game execution matters here against a Dayton team that prefers to play with pace.
UNC Wilmington’s advantage in this matchup comes from its rebounding and interior scoring. The Seahawks average 40.2 rebounds per game compared to Dayton’s 32.7, and that gap can create second-chance opportunities. Wessler’s presence inside will be important against L’Etang, and if UNC Wilmington can control the boards, it can dictate tempo and limit Dayton’s transition chances.
Key Injuries - UNC Wilmington Seahawks
- Gavin Walsh - Game Time Decision
- CJ Luster - Out
Dayton Flyers vs UNC Wilmington Seahawks Pick - Spread
- Dayton -2.5
Dayton has the stronger guard play, and that matters in a matchup where shot creation and late-game decision-making will be key. The Flyers showed in the Bradley game that they can control tempo and score in bursts, while UNC Wilmington needed a late shot to get past Yale. If Dayton limits turnovers and gets consistent production from Bennett and Montgomery, the Flyers will win and cover a short spread.
Dayton Flyers vs UNC Wilmington Seahawks - Over/Under Pick
- Under 139.5
Both teams are capable of scoring, but this matchup points toward a slower pace. UNC Wilmington prefers a controlled game built around rebounding, and Dayton can settle into half-court offense if needed. With both defenses allowing under 70 points per game, the play is the under.
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