Duke vs. Arkansas Picks and Prediction for Thursday, November 27, 2025
On Thursday, the Duke Blue Devils and Arkansas Razorbacks will battle in the CBS Sports Thanksgiving Classic, and we have you ready to go with our Duke vs. Arkansas prediction, odds, and preview. Tip-off from the United Center in Chicago is at 8:00 p.m. ET.
The Blue Devils are 10.5-point spread favorites, and the game total is 157.5 points scored.
These programs have played twice recently, with the Blue Devils winning 78-69 in 2022 and the Hogs winning 80-75 in 2023. If you want the Duke vs. Arkansas prediction, read on to get our top NCAAB predictions and increase your bankroll!
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Duke has dominated its competition this season
Duke (7-0 SU, 6-1 ATS, and 1-6 O/U) beat Howard 93-56 as 43-point favorites in its last game, failing to cover the spread for the first time this season. The Blue Devils shot 61 percent from the floor, won the rebounding battle 43-26, and outscored the Bison 58-14 in the paint.
The Blue Devils are the favorite to win the ACC in 2025-26, returning six players and welcoming in five freshmen and one college transfer. They return a solid core, with Isaiah Evans, Caleb Foster, Maliq Brown, and Patrick Ngongba II back to complement the team's incoming stars. They didn't lose a single player to the transfer portal, a sigh of relief for Scheyer after he watched five rotation players depart in the spring of 2024. Returnees Evans (13.0 PPG this season) and Foster (8.4 PPG) man the backcourt after both averaged roughly 14 minutes per game last season.
The headliner of this season's Duke squad is undoubtedly five-star freshman forward Cameron Boozer (21.1 PPG, 9.9 RPG, and 4.0 APG), who will be in the conversation for the top pick in the 2026 NBA Draft. The skilled son of former Blue Devil and NBA star Carlos, Boozer has the size, athleticism, and skill set to make an impact from the start. He is joined by Dame Sarr (8.0 PPG, 4.0 RPG, and 1.7 SPG), an international project from Italy, and the senior center Ngongba, who is averaging 13.0 PPG and 6.7 RPG this season. As for the reserves, five-star freshman Nikolas Khamenia (7.4 PPG and 4.0 RPG), the senior glue guy Brown (6.4 PPG), and freshman point guard Cayden Boozer (7.4 PPG and 4.0 APG) are three players to watch.
Duke Blue Devils Injury Report:
- No injuries to report.
Thursday's game is a big opportunity for Arkansas
Arkansas (5-1 SU, 3-3 ATS, and 2-4 O/U) beat Jackson State 115-61 in its last game, covering the spread as 30-point favorites. The Razorbacks shot 64 percent overall, including 50 percent from long range, and added 28 points at the foul line. They led by as many as 64, scoring 56 points in the paint, 34 in transition, and 38 off the Tigers' 20 turnovers.
The Hogs were picked to finish fifth in the SEC's preseason poll. Arkansas' top-three leading scorers (Adou Thiero, Boogie Fland, and Johnell Davis) are gone, but there are several key returning players, including forward Trevon Brazile (13.0 PPG and 7.0 RPG), forward Karter Knox (9.8 PPG and 6.6 RPG), guard DJ Wagner (9.3 PPG and 4.0 APG), and guard Billy Richmond III (8.0 PPG and 4.0 RPG). The group is the backbone of the 2025-26 squad, but they're hardly the only contributors.
Freshman guard Meleek Thomas has taken the lead, averaging 18.3 points, 5.2 rebounds, 4.2 dimes, and 1.5 steals per game. He's joined by fellow frosh guard Darius Acuff Jr. (16.8 PPG and 4.3 APG), who is shooting 43 percent from beyond the arc. The Razorbacks take great care of the basketball (9.2 turnovers per game) and shoot 79.9 percent at the free-throw line, stats that should help them steal a few wins in close games this season.
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Arkansas Razorbacks Injury Report:
- No injuries to report.
Duke vs. Arkansas Pick and Preview
Spread Pick for Duke vs. Arkansas
- Blue Devils -10.5 (5 Units)
Duke has the size and talent to cover the spread in this Turkey Day battle.
The Duke frontcourt will impose its will on both ends of the court, frustrating the Razorbacks' bigs. They were outrebounded 45-33 by a physical Michigan State team in their lone loss, giving up 19 offensive rebounds, and were also outrebounded by Winthrop in their one-point win over the Eagles. The Blue Devils rank in the top ten in total rebounding rate, as well as near-proximity shooting percentage and near-proximity defense. Boozer and Ngongba will be a handful for Brazile, Knox, and Nick Pringle to handle, especially if they get into foul trouble (Duke ranks 5th in FT attempt rate).
While Arkansas has enough talent to be competitive for stretches of Thursday's game, I question whether they will be in the second half. The Hogs' star freshmen can score in bunches, but they struggled in their first test against the Spartans (10-for-31 from the field and 4-for-17 on three-pointers). Knox has also been inconsistent, especially when he can't get to the foul line. Duke is a lengthy, physical, and deep team that leads the nation in defensive efficiency. If the Razorbacks don't bring their A-game for 40 minutes, they won't keep the score close.
Over/Under Pick for Duke vs. Arkansas
- Under 157.5 (4 Units)
Duke has scored at will this season, yet the under is 6-1 in its previous games, as the Blue Devils are also stout defensively. The under is 4-2 in Arkansas' six games, despite its fast tempo. I expect those trends to continue on Thursday, as Duke will dictate the style of play (242nd in pace), preventing the Hogs from getting out in transition for fast-break buckets (25th in potential quick points allowed off breakaway steals). The Razorbacks don't attempt many threes, but they aren't likely to dominate around the rim against the Blue Devils. If they don't force their way to the free-throw line often — Duke allows the third-fewest free throw attempts vs. the average opponent, per Haslametrics — they will struggle to contribute enough points to push the total over 157.
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