Evansville Purple Aces at Purdue Boilermakers Picks and Prediction, Tuesday, November 4, 2025
Use Code WWWC The Purdue Boilermakers will host the Evansville Aces in the season opener for both teams. Sports Illustrated has Purdue ranked No. 5 in the country in the preseason rankings, while Evansville is rated No. 223.
This game is expected to be an easy tune-up for the Boilermakers, with the only real question being whether they will cover the spread and how many different players will see the floor.
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Purple Aces looking to exceed expectations
Evansville went 11-21 last season and has not finished with a winning record since 2017-18. This will be the fourth season that the Purple Aces are led by head coach David Ragland. Last season, the team finished No. 254 in the KenPom ratings, ranking 155th in defensive efficiency but just 318th on offense.
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Evansville’s top three players from last year departed via the transfer portal, but the team does return 6’10” senior Connor Turnbull (9.3 ppg, 4.3 rpg). The Purple Aces opened the season with a 90-74 win over Henderson State. Four players stood out in that victory, each logging at least 34 minutes: Keishon Porter, Joshua Hughes, Leif Moeller, and AJ Casey.
Keishon Porter averaged 10.8 points per game at NC Central last season. Joshua Hughes is a returning 6’10” junior who played in all 32 games last season, averaging 7.2 points and 5.2 rebounds per game. Leif Moeller is a 6’7” freshman from Germany, and AJ Casey is a 6’9” senior who has spent time at Miami (Florida) and Saint Louis but has yet to see substantial playing time.
Purdue looking to win it all
The Purdue Boilermakers enter the season as the No. 1-ranked team in the AP Top 25. The Boilermakers return three starters from last season. Their big three includes seniors 6’0 guard Braden Smith (15.8 ppg, 8.7 apg, 2.2 spg), 6’5” guard Fletcher Loyer (13.8 ppg, 44.4% from three), and 6’9” forward Trey Kaufman-Renn (20.1 ppg, 6.5 rpg), who led the team in scoring last season. All three
Purdue also expects a big impact from 7’4” sophomore center Daniel Jacobs, who played in only three games last season, shooting 4-for-6 from the floor before breaking his leg. The Boilermakers are led by Matt Painter, who played at Purdue from 1989 to 1993 and has served as head coach since 2005.
Last season, Purdue finished 24-12 and ranked 15th according to KenPom. The team was seventh in adjusted offensive efficiency and 53rd on the defensive end.
Evansville vs Purdue Predictions
ATS Prediction for Evansville vs. Purdue:
- Purdue Boilermakers -29 (4 units)
Although expecting a team to win by 30+ is uncomfortable, Purdue is by far the superior team, and it's hard to trust Evansville. The Purple Aces team is more talented than they are getting credit for and will give the Boilermakers their best shot, but I think it will take some time for their team to come together. In this era with so much roster turnover nationwide, Purdue returns three outstanding players. Evansville was also on the wrong side of some terrible blowouts last season, which included an 80-30 loss to Ohio State. Betting on Evansville here is hoping that Purdue shows mercy, but the Boilermakers will win this game by more than 30 if they want to. I will lay it on the Boilermakers.
Total Prediction for Evansville vs. Purdue
- Under 147.5 (4 units)
Evansville was one of the weakest offensive teams in the nation last season, and they should have trouble putting points on the board against Purdue. The Purple Aces lack the interior presence to score inside and don’t have enough reliable perimeter shooters to make up for it. Meanwhile, Purdue isn’t likely to push the tempo with a big lead late. I don’t expect to see enough two-way scoring here, so I will go under.
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