Florida International vs. New Mexico State Picks and Prediction for Saturday, January 24, 2026
Use Code WWWC On Saturday, the Florida International Panthers will play the New Mexico State Aggies in a Conference USA basketball game, and we have you ready to go with our Florida International vs. New Mexico State prediction, odds, and preview. Tip-off from Las Cruces, NM, is at 2:00 p.m. ET.
The Aggies are eight-point spread favorites, and the game total is 155.5 points scored.
FIU beat NMSU 89-74 on January 2. The Panthers, who led by as many as 26, shot 53 percent from the field and added 19 points at the charity stripe. They scored 42 points in the paint and won the rebounding battle 38-26 with 14 offensive rebounds. If you want the Florida International vs. New Mexico State prediction, read on to get our top NCAAB predictions and increase your bankroll!
Panthers have lost five of their previous six
Florida International (9-10 SU, 10-6 ATS, and 9-7 O/U) lost 83-77 to UTEP on Thursday, falling to 2-6 in CUSA competition this season. The Panthers, who have lost five straight, shot 50 percent from the field but never led by more than one point. The Miners jumped out to an early lead and never relented, knocking down 11 three-pointers and scoring 36 points in the paint.
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FIU is coming off a disappointing 10-23 season in which it won just three conference games. The Panthers are led by eighth-year head coach Jeremy Ballard (107-134 record), whose teams have never finished higher than sixth in the Conference USA standings. Their last NCAA Tournament appearance was in 1995, as well. Florida International was predicted to finish tenth in the CUSA basketball preseason poll.
The Panthers score 83.4 points per game (97th) and shoot 46.2 percent from the field (139th), including 36.1 percent from three-point range (70th). Their opponents average 78.6 points per game (260th) on 43.2 percent shooting (151st), including 34.8 percent from beyond the arc (266th). Senior guard Corey Stephenson leads Florida International in scoring, averaging 17.2 points with 6.4 rebounds per game. Three other Panthers stars to watch against New Mexico State are senior guard Julian Mackey (12.9 PPG and a 40.2% 3PT%), junior forward Hamed Olayinka (10.6 PPG and 6.9 RPG), and senior guard Zawdie Jackson (10.6 PPG and 3.4 APG). KenPom rates FIU 193rd in the nation, including 191st in offensive efficiency and 204th in defensive efficiency.
Florida International Panthers Injury Report:
- No key injuries.
New Mexico State seeks revenge in the rematch
New Mexico State (10-8 SU, 8-7 ATS, and 10-5 O/U) lost 84-75 to Missouri State on Thursday, failing to cover as 1.5-point spread favorites. The Aggies, who are 3-5 in Conference USA play, shot just 44 percent overall, including 6-for-23 (26%) from three-point range. They were also outrebounded 40-28. The Bears shot 51 percent and added 22 points at the charity stripe.
NMSU was 17-15 overall and 10-8 in CUSA competition last season, the team's second under head coach Jason Hooten. The Aggies finished tied for fourth place in each of Hooten's first two seasons in Las Cruces. Their last NCAA Tournament appearance was in 2022, when they won the WAC. New Mexico State, which joined Conference USA in 2024, was predicted to finish third this season in the conference's preseason poll.
The Aggies score 77.1 points per game (225th) on 44.8 percent field goal shooting (219th), including 34.4 percent from three-point distance (163rd). Their opponents average 69.3 points per game (51st) and shoot 40.2 percent from the field (36th), including 30.7 percent from deep (62nd). Senior guard Jemel Jones paces New Mexico State in scoring this season. He averages 16.7 points per game on 42.4 percent shooting, including 35.9 percent from long range. A few other Aggies stars to watch against Florida International are senior forward Julius Mims (10.6 PPG and 7.8 RPG), senior guard Elijah Elliott (9.6 PPG and 2.3 APG), and senior guard Jayland Randall (8.7 PPG and 3.1 RPG). KenPom rates NMSU 137th in the nation, including 117th in offensive efficiency and 184th in defensive efficiency.
New Mexico State Aggies Injury Report:
- No injuries to report.
Florida International vs. New Mexico State Pick and Preview
Spread Pick for Florida International vs. New Mexico State
- Aggies -8 (4 Units)
FIU won the first matchup between these teams, but they have struggled since then, losing five of six straight-up and four of six against the spread. The Panthers are also one of the least reliable teams on the road, ranking 351st nationally in Haslametrics' Away from Home metric. I don't trust them to take good care of the basketball (15.0% turnover rate on the road) and believe they will lose the turnover battle against an NMSU team that has a 10.4% turnover rate at home and a 7.4% turnover rate over the last three games. The Aggies also rank 18th nationally in quick points allowed off breakaway steals vs. the average opponent.
The Panthers won't replicate their performance in the first matchup. Bet on New Mexico State to cover on Saturday!
Over/Under Pick for Florida International vs. New Mexico State
- Under 155.5 (5 Units)
I feel confident that the Aggies will dictate the pace at home. That should result in fewer possessions than an average game, as they rank 228th in schedule-adjusted tempo, per KenPom. They also take good care of the basketball, while the higher-tempo Panthers don't, which will slow the pace. I don't expect NMSU to score a ton of points, either. FIU has struggled offensively recently, but has been more reliable defensively, ranking 97th in defensive momentum, according to Haslametrics. The Aggies' offense has been up-and-down recently, too, scoring 55 points four games back and 97 two games ago. Ranked 331st in consistency, it's unlikely NMSU will dominate offensively from start to finish.
After a competitive first half, New Mexico State will pull away to win and cover, but the total will stay below the number. Bet the under.
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