Florida State at Dayton, Picks and Prediction for Tuesday, December 16, 2025
Use Code WWWC Florida State (5-5) heads north to face a steady Dayton (8-3) team in a non-conference matchup. The Seminoles have played one of the tougher early schedules in the country but have struggled to close games against quality opponents. On the other side, Dayton is undefeated at home.
For David Delano's full Florida State vs Dayton prediction keep reading, and check out all the free college basketball picks with Winners and Whiners.
Four game losing streak for FSU
Florida State enters this matchup on a four game losing streak with losses to Texas A&M, Georgia, Houston, and UMass. The Seminoles have no issue scoring, averaging over 85 points per game, but defensive breakdowns and turnovers have been costly against stronger competition.
Florida State plays fast and shoots a high volume of threes, with over 53 percent of its shots coming from beyond the arc (4th nationally). Robert McCray V drives the offense, leading the team in points (14.8) and assists (7.2), followed by Lajae Jones (12.5 ppg) and Chauncey Wiggins (12.4 ppg). Despite the high volume from deep, the Seminoles are only making 31.3% (258th) of those attempts.
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Defensively, Florida State has struggled to get stops without fouling or giving up second chances. Opponents are shooting 52.1% effective field goal percentage against them, and the Seminoles rank 317th in defensive rebounding percentage, allowing extended possessions far too often. Turnovers have also been an issue, with Florida State committing giveaways on 16.0% of possessions, a number that tends to climb against disciplined teams.
Dayton looking to make a statement
Dayton comes into this game at 8–3 and has quietly put together one of the more reliable non-conference profiles in the country, as one of their losses came 83-79 against BYU. The Flyers rank 97th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 44th in adjusted defensive efficiency, and their style is built around control and execution. With an adjusted tempo of 69.5, Dayton is comfortable slowing the game down and forcing opponents to play in the half-court.
Defensively, the Flyers are excellent at creating mistakes without gambling. They force turnovers on 24.2% of opponent possessions, which ranks 3rd nationally, and they sit top 15 in non-steal turnovers forced. That’s a key matchup advantage against a Florida State team that prefers to play fast and take risks.
Offensively, Dayton scores efficiently inside, shooting 57.3% on two-point attempts (48th nationally). De’Shayne Montgomery leads the way with 16.1 points per game, shooting 56.1% from the field and 44.9% from three, while Javon Bennett adds 15.6 points per game and is nearly automatic at the line at 88.6%. Dayton also ranks 27th nationally in free-throw rate as a team.
Florida State vs Dayton Predictions
FSU vs. Dayton ATS Pick:
- Dayton Flyers -6.5 (4 units)
Dayton comes into the matchup rated as the 67th best team in the country according to KenPom, and FSU is only 105th. Florida State’s fast pace and reliance on three-point shooting make them hard to trust in this spot, especially on the road against a disciplined team like Dayton, which will test the half-court execution of the Noles. If Florida State isn’t hitting shots early, this game could get out of hand quickly.
With home-court advantage and a clear edge in efficiency. I like Dayton to win and cover.
FSU vs. Dayton Total Pick:
- Over 162.5 (5 units)
Florida is seventh in the nation in adjusted tempo and their high-volume three-point shooting should lead to long rebounds and fast breaks. Although Dayton doesn't run as much as the Noles do, the Flyers play at a solid tempo, ranking 145th in the country, far from just walking the ball up the floor. Once FSU falls behind, expect their pace and aggression to increase, and with Dayton’s ability to score efficiently inside and at the line, the points should keep coming.
I am on the over.
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