Florida State vs. Miami Picks and Prediction for Tuesday, January 20, 2026
Use Code WWWC On Tuesday, the Florida State Seminoles will play the Miami Hurricanes in an ACC hoops rivalry battle, and we have you ready to go with our Florida State vs. Miami prediction, odds, and preview. Tip-off from Coral Gables, FL, is at 7:00 p.m. ET.
The Canes are 12-point spread favorites, and the game total is 166 points scored.
FSU has won five straight games against UM and nine of the last ten straight-up (7-3 ATS). The Seminoles lead the all-time series 56-37. If you want the Florida State vs. Miami prediction, read on to get our top NCAAB predictions and increase your bankroll!
Florida State searching for its first ACC win
Florida State (7-11 SU, 8-10 ATS, and 8-10 O/U) has dropped its first five ACC games, falling to last in the conference's hoops standings. The 'Noles lost by just one to Wake Forest on Saturday, as they shot 38 percent from the field and 23 percent from long range. While they dominated on the boards (+16 rebounding margin, along with 16 offensive rebounds), they committed 16 turnovers that allowed the Demon Deacons to keep the score close and eventually win.
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FSU scores 82.3 points (119th) on 42.2 percent shooting (321st), including 31.5 percent from beyond the arc (291st). Defensively, the Seminoles allow 81.3 points per game (302nd) on 45.9 percent shooting (293rd), including 34.0 percent from three-point distance (219th). Florida State ranks 112th in NET rating, including 96th in offensive efficiency and 160th in defensive efficiency, per KenPom.
Senior guard Robert McCray V leads FSU in scoring, averaging 13.6 points on 44.3 percent shooting. He also averages 6.5 assists and 1.3 steals per game. A few other Seminoles to watch against Miami are senior forward Chauncey Wiggins (12.1 PPG and 4.3 RPG), senior guard Lajae Jones (11.1 PPG and 4.9 RPG), and senior forward Alex Steen (6.9 PPG and 5.8 RPG).
Florida State Seminoles Injury Report:
- No significant injuries to report.
Hurricanes are out for revenge against their rival
Miami (15-3 SU, 10-8 ATS, and 11-7 O/U) lost its first ACC game over the weekend, falling 69-59 on the road at Clemson. The Hurricanes never led, as they were off the mark offensively (39 percent FG% and 25 percent 3PT%) and committed 16 turnovers. The Tigers shot 53 percent overall and 47 percent of their threes to stay undefeated in conference play.
Miami scores 86.2 points (56th) on 51.0 percent shooting (14th), including 33.8 percent from beyond the arc (203rd). Defensively, the Hurricanes surrender 69.2 points per game (47th) on 42.3 percent shooting (101st), including 34.8 percent from downtown (263rd). Miami ranks 31st in NET rating, including 47th in offensive efficiency and 35th in defensive efficiency, according to KenPom.
Senior forward Malik Reneau paces UM in scoring, averaging 19.8 points on 56.4 percent shooting. He also averages 6.4 rebounds per game. A few other Canes to watch against Florida State are senior guard Tre Donaldson (16.3 PPG and 6.5 APG), freshman forward Shelton Henderson (14.1 PPG and 4.3 RPG), and senior center Ernest Udeh Jr. (6.8 PPG and 10.4 RPG).
Miami Hurricanes Injury Report:
- No significant injuries to report.
Florida State vs. Miami Pick and Preview
Spread Pick for Florida State vs. Miami
- Hurricanes -12 (4 Units)
FSU has dominated this rivalry as of late, but UM will win and cover on Tuesday. The Seminoles have been too inconsistent to trust in this spot, especially on the road. They rank 356th nationally in Haslametrics' Away from Home metric and 364th in the hoops website's Consistency metric. They will have their hands full defending the rim against a Miami team that dominates in the paint. The Canes average the sixth-most near-proximity shot attempts against the average opponent, and will cash in often against a Noles post defense ranked 294th in opponent two-point percentage and 237th in average opponent near-proximity shooting percentage.
Miami (19th in Consistency rating and 33rd in Record Quality) has enough offense to cover the 12-point spread at home.
Over/Under Pick for Florida State vs. Miami
- Under 166 (5 Units)
FSU is a fast-paced team averaging over 80 points per game, but it hasn't played like that in ACC play. The Noles were held under 70 points in three of their first five conference games and are unlikely to be more efficient against a Hurricanes squad ranked 35th in defensive efficiency rating. The home team ranks in the top 50 in opponent free-throw attempt rate, opponent two-point percentage, and opponent near-proximity attempt rate; plus, they're third in potential quick points allowed off offensive rebounds. That will put plenty of pressure on the Seminoles to knock down perimeter shots, which they have failed to do consistently this season (31.5%).
Miami will run away with this game and should cover the spread, but I still don't anticipate these teams combining for more than 166 points.
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