Fresno State vs. UNLV Picks and Prediction for Saturday, December 20, 2025
Use Code WWWC Fresno State Bulldogs (6-5) vs. UNLV Rebels (4-6)
The 2025-26 college basketball season goes on Saturday, December 20, with the Fresno State Bulldogs taking on the UNLV Rebels in the Mountain West Conference showdown at Thomas & Mack Center in Las Vegas, NV, so we’ve prepared the Fresno State vs. UNLV prediction to get you covered.
The Rebels aim for their fifth straight victory over the Bulldogs. They locked horns twice in 2024-25, and UNLV beat Fresno State 87-77 as a 15.5-point home fave and 52-51 as an 8-point road fave. Fresno State is 5-1 ATS in its previous six dates with UNLV.
Now, let’s look closer at this Fresno State vs. UNLV prediction, one of our NCAAB picks for Saturday’s card. The tip-off at Thomas & Mack Center is set at 7:00 PM ET, and UNLV opens as a 6.5-point home fave with a total of 156.5 points.
Fresno State is on a three-game slide
The Fresno State Bulldogs (6-5; 6-4 ATS; 5-5 O/U) put an end to their four-game winning streak on the last day of November, suffering a 76-71 home loss against Cal State Bakersfield. Since then, the Bulldogs lost against Arkansas 82-58 at the neutral site on December 6 and Cal State Northridge 89-87 on the road on December 10.
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The Bulldogs erased an 18-point deficit against the Matadors. With 26 seconds left on the clock, Fresno State had an 87-86 lead over Cal State Northridge, but the Matadors hit a triple with two seconds remaining. It was a heartbreaking loss for the Bulldogs, who went 13-for-29 from downtown and 14-for-16 from the foul line.
Junior guard Zaon Collins dropped 24 points on the Matadors. Collins averages 14.7 points and 5.1 assists, while senior guard Jake Heidbreder tallies 18.5 points and 3.0 rebounds per game. Fresno State scores 104.9 points per 100 possessions (223rd in the country) and surrenders 106.5 points in return (143rd).
UNLV is coming off a shocking loss
The UNLV Rebels (4-6; 4-6 ATS; 6-4 O/U) have only won one of their previous five games overall. After putting an end to their three-game losing streak with a 75-74 road victory against Stanford, the Rebels suffered a 63-60 home loss to Tennessee State this past Saturday, playing as 12.5-point favorites.
UNLV’s offense was awful last weekend. The Rebels shot 37.2% from the field (3-for-15 from downtown) and missed 13 of their 32 attempts from the foul line. They finished the game with an ugly 7/18 assist-to-turnover ratio. Junior guard Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn scored 13 points and was the lone Rebel with points in double figures.
Lawhorn leads the way for UNLV with 16.1 points and 3.2 rebounds per game, while senior forward Kimani Hamilton posts 12.9 points and 5.5 boards a night. The Rebels score 110.6 points per 100 possessions (117th in the country) and allow 107.2 points in return (159th).
Fresno State vs. UNLV Pick
Spread Pick for Fresno State vs. UNLV
- Fresno State +6.5 (5 units)
The Rebels are struggling in their first season under Josh Pastner. UNLV ranks 339th in the country in 3-point percentage (27.9%), 345th in defensive free-throw rate (.476), and 288th in defensive rebound percentage (65.7%). The Rebels changed almost their entire roster in the offseason, and they certainly lack height.
On the other side, the Bulldogs made a lot of changes, too, but they returned Zaon Collins and acquired freshman center Wilson Jacques (6.9 PPG, 7.4 RPG), a seven-footer from Metz, France. Fresno State is a decent rebounding team, and the Bulldogs rank 30th in the country in defensive turnover percentage (20.9%).
I think the Bulldogs will keep it close in this matchup. They are 16-3 ATS in their last 19 meetings with the Rebels.
Over/Under Pick for Fresno State vs. UNLV
- Over 156.5 (5 units)
The Bulldogs play at a steady pace. They register 69.7 possessions per 40 minutes (151st in the nation). The Bulldogs are turnover-prone, but as I noted, they force a lot of turnovers.
On the other side, the Rebels are 89th in defensive turnover percentage (19.3%). Their shooting has been pretty bad this season, but the Rebels love to get to the foul line while allowing a ton of free throws.
UNLV tallies 74.0 possessions per 40 minutes (15th). Fresno State won’t mind joining the party, and I expect a fast-paced, high-scoring affair. The over is 7-3 in the past 10 dates between Fresno State and UNLV.
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