Georgia Southern Eagles vs South Alabama Jaguars Picks and Predictions for Friday, March 6, 2026
Use Code WWWC Georgia Southern meets South Alabama (-4.5) at the Pensacola Bay Center in Pensacola, Florida, for a Sun Belt Conference Tournament fourth-round matchup on Friday at 9:30 PM ET on ESPN+. Georgia Southern is 18-15 overall and finished 8-10 in Sun Belt play, finishing 10th in the conference standings. The Eagles advanced with back-to-back tournament wins, including an 80-77 victory over Arkansas State on Thursday. South Alabama finished the regular season 21-10 overall and 11-7 in conference play, earning the No. 2 seed and a bye into this round. The Jaguars closed the regular season with a 68-55 home loss to Southern Miss. Make sure to build your bankroll, using our free college basketball picks.
Georgia Southern is Riding Momentum
Georgia Southern averages 80.7 points per game while allowing an average of 79.9, using a fast-paced style that often produces high-scoring games. The Eagles rely heavily on guard play and perimeter scoring, led by Spudd Webb, who averages 15.6 points, 4.6 rebounds, and 2.6 assists per game while shooting 50.8% from the field. Webb also leads the team with 1.7 steals per contest and frequently leads the offense in transition.
Tyren Moore adds 15.2 points per game and shoots 38.5% from three-point range, giving Georgia Southern a strong outside scoring threat. Moore scored 25 points in the tournament win over Arkansas State, including key baskets late in the game. Alden Applewhite contributes 13.7 points and 5.9 rebounds per contest while shooting 48.1% from the floor. The Eagles average 34.7 rebounds and 11.0 assists per game while committing 10.4 turnovers.
Defensively, Georgia Southern records 8.1 steals per game and forces turnovers with strong perimeter pressure. However, the Eagles allow nearly 80 points per contest, which has led to several high-scoring games throughout the season. Georgia Southern has now scored at least 80 points in three consecutive games entering this matchup.
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Key Injuries - Georgia Southern Eagles
Georgia Southern does not have any players listed on its injury report.
South Alabama’s Defense and Guard Play will set the Tone
South Alabama averages 74.3 points per game while allowing just 69.0, giving the Jaguars one of the better defenses in the Sun Belt. The offense is led by guard Chaze Harris, who leads the team with averages of 18.9 points and 4.7 assists per game while shooting 55.1% from the field. Harris scored 23 points in the regular-season finale against Southern Miss and also added nine rebounds.
Forward Adam Olsen is the second-leading scorer, averaging 16.7 points per game and shoots 39.1% from three-point range. Peyton Law contributes 12.8 points and 5.9 rebounds, but is out for this game, while Randy Brady leads the team on the glass with 5.9 rebounds per contest. South Alabama averages 35.5 rebounds and 11.7 assists per game while generating 8.1 steals.
The Jaguars struggled offensively in the loss to Southern Miss, shooting just 33% from the field and 18% from three-point range. Despite that result, South Alabama’s defense and rebounding ability remain key strengths. The Jaguars typically control pace and limit opponents’ scoring opportunities by forcing contested perimeter shots.
Key Injuries - South Alabama Jaguars
Peyton Law - Out (Knee)
Georgia Southern vs South Alabama Pick - Spread (South Alabama -4.5)
Georgia Southern enters with strong offensive momentum after consecutive tournament wins. Still, South Alabama’s tough defense and the bye give the Jaguars a big advantage in this matchup. The Jaguars finished second in the Sun Belt and typically control tempo with disciplined half-court defense. If South Alabama slows the pace and limits transition opportunities, the Jaguars will create a lead in the second half that Georgia Southern cannot overcome. South Alabama (-4.5) will cover the spread.
Georgia Southern vs South Alabama - Over/Under Pick (Over 149.5)
Georgia Southern prefers a faster tempo and averages more than 80 points per game, while South Alabama relies on its tough man-to-man defense and controlled possessions on offense. The Eagles’ recent tournament games have produced high-scoring totals, and Georgia Southern’s perimeter shooting can quickly increase the pace. Even with South Alabama’s defense, Georgia Southern’s pace on offense makes the total (149.5) trend toward the over in this matchup.
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