Gonzaga vs. Kentucky Picks and Prediction, Friday, December 5, 2025
Use Code WWWC On Friday, the 11th-ranked Gonzaga Bulldogs will play the 18th-ranked Kentucky Wildcats in the Music City Madness event at Bridgestone Arena, and we have you ready to go with our Gonzaga vs. Kentucky prediction, odds, and preview. Tip-off from Nashville, TN, is at 7:00 p.m. ET.
The Bulldogs are 4.5-point spread favorites, and the game total is 157.5 points.
These college hoops blue-bloods played last year in Seattle, a thrilling game that the Wildcats won by one in overtime. The Zags led by 16 at halftime, but Kentucky rallied in the second half behind Andrew Carr (19 points) and Jaxson Robinson (18). Friday's game marks the fourth matchup between these teams since 2022, when they agreed to a six-game series. The Bulldogs won the previous two contests and covered the spread in both games.
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Bulldogs suffered a humiliating loss last game
Gonzaga (7-1 SU, 6-2 ATS, and 3-5 O/U) won its first two Players Era Tournament games by double digits over Alabama and Maryland, but was dominated by Michigan in the title game, losing 101-61. The Zags never led in the shocking loss, falling behind early and trailing by 24 at the half. They shot just 34 percent, while the Wolverines hit 60 percent of their field goal attempts. The Bulldogs, who rank 20th nationally in total rebounding percentage, were also outrebounded for the first time this season.
The Bulldogs were 26-9 last season, finishing second in theย West Coast Conference with a 14-4 regular season record. They won the WCC Tournament, but couldn't sustain their momentum, losing in the second round of the NCAA tourney. Gonzaga is led by long-time head coach Mark Few, who has a 749-153 record in Spokane. The Zags were picked to win the WCC in the conference's preseason poll.
Gonzaga lost several key contributors from last season's squad, including veteran guards Ryan Nembhard (10.5 PPG and 9.8 APG) and Khalif Battle (13.6 PPG and 3.7 RPG). The Bulldogs aren't short on returning talent, though. Senior forward Graham Ike is back (15.0 PPG and 7.9 RPG) to lead one of the country's most experienced college hoops squads (average age of 21.2 years old). Braden Huff, a 6-10 redshirt junior, was a force in the postseason, giving the Zags an intimidating frontcourt combo. Gonzaga has versatile, lengthy wings and plenty of depth after Few made several significant offseason additions through the portal. A few of the impactful newcomers are senior wing Tyon Grant-Foster (12.1 PPG and 6.3 RPG), senior guard Adam Miller (9.5 PPG), and senior wing Jalen Warley (6.5 PPG and 4.6 RPG).
Gonzaga Bulldogs Basketball Injury Report:
- No injuries to report for Friday's NCAAB game against Kentucky.
Kentucky has come up short in its biggest tests
Kentucky (5-3 SU, 4-4 ATS, and 4-4 O/U) lost 67-64 at home to North Carolina on Tuesday in the ACC/SEC Challenge. The Wildcats and Tar Heels were tied at the half, but UNC rallied late behind Derek Dixon, who scored five of the visitors' final six points, including a tiebreaking layup with 16 seconds left. Kentucky scored 42 points in the paint but was just 1-for-13 (8%) from three-point distance. North Carolina also dominated on the glass, outrebounding UK (+11 margin) with 20 offensive rebounds.
UK averages 86.8 points (97th) on 49.8 percent shooting (45th), including 33.6 percent from three (138th). Defensively, the Wildcats surrender 63.8 points per game (17th) on 36.4 percent shooting (11th), including 27.9 percent from deep (36th). Kentucky ranks 15th in NET rating, including 21st in offensive efficiency and 13th in defensive efficiency, per KenPom. It has the second-weakest strength of schedule rating of any team in the top 20, and lost to the team (Louisville) with the weakest schedule.
Senior guard Denzel Aberdeen paces Kentucky in scoring at 13.5 points per game on 49.4 percent shooting. A few other Wildcats to watch against Gonzaga are senior guard Otega Oweh (13.4 PPG and 3.8 RPG), sophomore guard Collin Chandler (11.8 PPG and 3.4 RPG with a 46.5 3PT%), and 7-foot freshman center Malachi Moreno (10.3 PPG and 7.8 RPG). Freshman guard Jasper Johnson (7.0 PPG and 3.1 APG), freshman forward Andrija Jelaviฤ (6.3 PPG and 4.5 RPG), and junior forward Brandon Garrison (5.9 PPG and 5.0 RPG) offer additional length and versatility off the bench. While Kentucky was expected to be a deep squad, injuries have limited its playing rotation.
Kentucky Wildcats Basketball Injury Report:
- Starting PF Mouhamed Dioubate (11.6 PPG and 5.8 RPG) is out with a high ankle sprain. He has missed the last three games.
- PG Jaland Loweย (7.5 PPG and 5.0 APG)ย is questionable to play against Gonzaga. He has played in only two games this season due to a shoulder injury. โHeโs kind of working his way back in,โ Wildcats coach Mark Pope said. โWeโll see how that goes.โ
- F Jayden Quaintance (9.4 PPG and 7.9 RPG last season) hasn't played this season and won't suit up on Friday versus the Zags. He is less than nine months removed from surgery for a torn ACL.
Gonzaga vs. Kentucky Pick and Preview
Spread Pick for Gonzaga vs. Kentucky
- Wildcats ML (5 Units)
I believe the wrong team is favored in Friday's Music City Madness matchup between the Bulldogs and Wildcats.
Kentucky is a good bet to at least cover the 4.5-point spread, but I see more upside in a wager on them to win straight-up at +140 odds. The Wildcats are due for positive regression from three-point range, which is the x-factor in this game. They are certainly better than they shot the basketball last game (1-for-13), which typically suggests regression in the other direction. The three-ball is the main focus of Pope's offensive system, which features ball screens and drive-and-kick action to free up open shooters. The Cats won't be shy to let it fly from beyond the arc, either (26.8 attempts per game).
I also feel confident Kentucky will be able to box out for pivotal offensive rebounds, keeping them from falling behind if they go through a cold shooting stretch. They rank 18th nationally in total rebounding percentage and grabbed 38.9 percent of their offensive rebounding opportunities in their previous three games.
Gonzaga will attempt to beat Kentucky inside-out, with Huff and Ike attacking the Wildcats' bigs at the rim. While UK has size, it lacks frontcourt depth. However, if the Wildcats are hitting their threes on the other end of the court, I fear the Bulldogs won't have enough in their bag to keep up on the scoreboard. Gonzaga hasn't shot the three-ball well enough, as the Zags haven't shot better than 28 percent against a power opponent in four games.
While they won't be at home, the crowd support will be heavily in Kentucky's favor in Nashville. With Big Blue Nation behind them, the Wildcats will win straight-up.
Over/Under Pick for Gonzaga vs. Kentucky
- Over 157.5 points (4 Units)
I lean towards the over in this game. The Wildcats are an explosive offensive team when they knock down three-pointers, and I'm confident that they'll have some success from long range on Friday night. The three-ball will be their response to the Bulldogs' scoring touch around the basket (27th in near-proximity shooting percentage).
These teams also prefer a fast tempo. According to Haslametrics, Gonzaga ranks 19th in pace, and Kentucky ranks 51st, so bettors should expect an accelerated tempo. The Wildcats (12th in fast-break points per game) and Bulldogs (48th in fast-break points) will be eager to get out in transition, and the Zags could have more fast-break opportunities than usual, as the Wildcats can be loose with the basketball at times.
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