Illinois Fighting Illini vs Houston Cougars Picks and Predictions for Thursday, March 26, 2026
Use Code WWWC Illinois and Houston meet at Toyota Center in Houston, Texas, for a Sweet 16 matchup in the South Region on Thursday at 10:05 PM ET on TBS and truTV. Illinois opened the tournament with wins over Penn and VCU, while Houston beat Idaho and Texas A&M. The Cougars are listed as 3.5-point favorites with the total at 140.5. Illinois has looked explosive through two games, but Houston has looked just as sharp while playing this regional in its home state. Cash in your ticket with our free college basketball picks.
Illinois Has Brought Size, Balance, and Real Scoring Punch
Illinois averaged 84.7 points per game and allowed 69.4 during the regular season, and the Illini have carried that offensive strength into the tournament. Keaton Wagler was the regular-season scoring leader at 17.8 points per game and also led Illinois in assists at 4.4. David Mirkovic was the regular-season rebounding leader at 7.9 boards per game, while Zvonimir Ivisic led the team in blocks. Illinois has a talented frontcourt, and that size has mattered through two tournament wins.
In the first round against Penn, Illinois put up 105 points and completely controlled the glass. Mirkovic led the Illini with 29 points and 17 rebounds, while Wagler added 18 points and seven assists. Tomislav Ivisic scored 12, and Illinois finished with 48 rebounds, including 20 on the offensive glass. In the second round against VCU, the game was more physical, but Illinois still handled it well. Andrej Stojakovic came off the bench for 21 points, while Tomislav Ivisic had 14 points and 11 rebounds. Wagler also scored 14, and Illinois held VCU to 35% shooting.
Through two tournament games, Mirkovic is leading Illinois in scoring at 18.0 points per game and rebounding at 11.0, while Wagler is still leading the team in assists at 4.5 and averaging 16.0 points. That is a notable shift because Wagler was the regular-season scoring leader, but Illinois has gotten huge tournament production from Mirkovic inside and timely scoring from Stojakovic. That makes the Illini harder to load up against because the offense is not flowing through only one player.
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Key Injuries - Illinois Fighting Illini
- Ty Rodgers - Game Time Decision
- Toni Bilic - Out
- Jason Jakstys - Out
Houston’s Defense Still Looks Like the Biggest Force in the Region
Houston averaged 77.5 points per game and allowed only 62.3 during the regular season, and the Cougars have looked exactly like that through two tournament games. Kingston Flemings was the regular-season leader in scoring, averaging 16.2 per game and assists at 5.2, while Chris Cenac Jr. led Houston in rebounds at 7.8. Joseph Tugler led the Cougars in blocks. Houston is defense-first, but the offense has been strong enough to punish teams once the pressure builds from its strong defense.
In the first round against Idaho, Houston won 78-47 and controlled every part of the game. Flemings led the Cougars with 18 points and six rebounds, while Emanuel Sharp had 16, and Cenac finished with 18 rebounds. Houston shot 50% from the field and held Idaho to 29%. In the second round against Texas A&M, the Cougars were even better offensively in an 88-57 win. Sharp led with 18 points, Cenac scored 17 with nine rebounds, and Milos Uzan added 15 points and four assists.
Through two tournament games, Sharp is Houston’s leading scorer at 17.0 points per game, while Cenac leads in rebounding at 13.5, and Flemings leads in assists at 4.0. That is worth noting because Flemings was the regular-season scoring leader, but Houston has gotten its biggest scoring push in the tournament from Sharp and more interior dominance from Cenac. That makes the Cougars even more dangerous, especially when opponents are already dealing with one of the nation’s best defenses.
Key Injuries - Houston Cougars
- Bryce Jackson - Out
- Kordel Jefferson - Out
Illinois Fighting Illini vs Houston Cougars Pick - Spread
- Illinois +3.5
Houston deserves respect here, especially with the defense it has shown through two rounds. Still, 3.5 points is a number Illinois can handle because the Illini have the size to compete on the glass and enough scoring to avoid suffering through several possessions without points. Mirkovic and Tomislav Ivisic give Illinois a real interior threat, and Wagler’s playmaking will keep the offense organized. Houston may win the game, but Illinois has enough offense and rebounding to cover the number.
Illinois Fighting Illini vs Houston Cougars - Over/Under Pick
- Under 140.5
Illinois has put up big numbers in the tournament, but this matchup is different because Houston is the most physical defense it has faced. The Cougars are comfortable slowing the game down, winning possessions, and forcing opponents to score with the shot clock running down. Illinois can still get to the mid-60s or low 70s, but Houston’s style usually makes these games a tough half-court battle. Under 140.5 is the best play.
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