Illinois State vs. USC Picks and Prediction, Friday, November 14th, 2025
Use Code WWWC The Illinois State Redbirds (1-1) and the USC Trojans (2-0) will tipoff in the West Coast Showdown as part of the Hall of Fame Series in Los Angeles on Friday night in this Illinois State vs. USC prediction. This will be the first of two games played at the Intuit Dome that night, with Arizona and UCLA playing after this matchup. Illinois State just won 76-65 over Cornell in their last game, while USC won 114-83 against Manhattan. Tipoff is set for 7:30 EST and can be found on Peacock. Keep reading for our Illinois State vs. USC prediction, and check out all of our winning NCAAB Betting Picks!
Illinois State on the Big Stage
This is a big game for the Illinois State Redbirds program, they are playing at the home of the Los Angeles Clippers, and are the smallest program in this showcase by a wide margin. USC, Arizona and UCLA are much bigger schools, but Illinois State wants to steal the headlines with an upset win. The Redbirds won 22 games last season, and won the CBI Tournament to close the year. In their recent game against Cornell, they were led by Ty'Reek Coleman came off the bench to score 24 points in the win.
Coleman is a 6'2 freshman guard who has made an impact on the program already, averaging 13.5 PPG to start the season. The success of Illinois State this season likely falls on the big shoulders of Chase Walker, who is a 6'9 and 280-pound junior who has been with Illinois State for his whole career. He was First Team All-MVC last season, and is the only member of that team to return this year. Walker is getting 10.0 PPG this season after scoring 15.2 PPG last year. Johnny Kinziger will lead the offense from the outside. The 5'11 junior is averaging 13.0 PPG and was Second Team All-MVC last season.
Illinois State is ranked 124th out of 365 Division I teams according to KenPom. They are 137th in offensive efficiency and 119th in defensive efficiency. They play at a slow pace, ranking 304th in pace of play.
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Trojans in the Matinee
The USC Trojans would have preferred to play in the second game of this showcase, but had to settle on the first game against a mid-major school out of the Missouri Valley Conference. USC needs to not let that fact bother them much, as they cannot afford to underestimate this veteran group that won 20-plus games last season. USC has been scoring at ease this year, with 94 points in their opener against Cal Poly, and another 114 in their most recent game against Manhattan.
In the Manhattan game, Chad Baker-Mazara had 26 points and seven rebounds in the easy win. The Trojans hit the transfer portal hard, with Baker-Mazara being one of their top prizes. He is a 6'7 senior guard who came over from Auburn, he scored 12.3 PPG last year with that team, which was one of the top teams in the nation last season. So far this year, Baker-Mazara is getting 19.0 PPG and 7.0 RPG. Ezra Ausar was a double-figure scorer last season for Utah, and the 6'9 senior forward is averaging 19.0 PPG this year. Rodney Rice scored 13.8 PPG last year with Maryland and is now getting 17.5 PPG through his first two games with the Trojans.
USC is ranked 21st overall according to KenPom. They are 26th in offensive efficiency and 17th in defensive efficiency. They play much faster than the Redbirds, as the Trojans are 13th in the nation in tempo based on their pace of play.
Illinois State vs. USC Picks and Predictions
Spread pick for Illinois State vs. USC
- Illinois State +16.5 (5 units)
USC is not happy with their spot in the opening game of this showcase and would much rather be playing in the headliner. This will have an effect on the effort, as the Trojans think they will be able to roll this Illinois State team out of a smaller conference. That will not be the case here. Illinois State won 22 games last season, including the CBI Tournament Championship, proving they can win these neutral-site games against tough competition. They do not need to win this game, but they return their top two players from last year's squad, both of whom made all-conference. The Redbirds are a veteran team with chemistry, while USC is a team packed with transfers who has yet to prove they can play together.
Take the points with Illinois State.
Over/Under Pick for Illinois State vs. USC
- Under 158.5 (4 units)
Illinois State has one chance to keep this game close, and that involves slowing the game down. The Redbirds will be able to do this, as they have a strong backcourt and a rim-protecting presence in the middle. Kinziger was an all-conference guard for Illinois State last season. He will be able to help control this pace and limit turnovers. Coleman is a promising freshman who can help control the ball for the Redbirds on the perimeter as well. Their best player is Chase Walker, and he is a physical 6'9 presence in the middle who will not give up easy buckets. Illinois State is 304th in pace of play. USC has to figure out how to keep its chemistry with all new players, and will struggle to put up big numbers in this one.
Take the under.
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