Illinois vs. Purdue, Picks, Odds, Prediction and Line Movement for Saturday, January 26, 2026
Use Code WWWC It doesn't get much better than Big 10 basketball and an Illinois vs. Purdue prediction on Saturday. No. 11 Illinois (16-3, 7-1 B10) has won eight straight games and will be severely tested from West Lafayette at 3pmET when they face No. 4 Purdue (17-2, 7-1 B10). The Boilermakers had won nine straight before falling at UCLA, 69-67 on Jan. 20. These teams met just once last season, with the Illini winning at home 88-80 as a 4.5-point favorite. This time, Purdue is the 4.5-point favorite with the total at 152.5. Check out more free college basketball predictions, NFL playoffs and NBA picks at Winners and Whiners.
Illinois has the top-ranked offense
KenPom has Illinois ranked eighth, first in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and 23rd in Adjusted Defense. That offense was on display on Wednesday when they dispatched of Maryland 89-70 at home. Andrej Stojakovic, son of former NBA player Peja, scored 30 points and grabbed nine rebounds to lead the Illini to an easy win as a 19-point favorite. Illinois shot just 44% from the field, but made 38% (14-4) of their three-pointers and outrebounded the Terps by 14.
The Fighting Illini are tied with three other teams for second place behind 8-0 Nebraska in the Big 10. This is a very balanced team that has five key players who shoot at least 36.6% from three-point range. Keaton Wagler leads the Illini with 15.9 points per game and shoots 39.4% from the three-point line and leads with 4.0 assists. Stojakovic adds 14.4 points and shoots 51.3% from the field.
On the injury front, guard Kylan Boswell (hand) missed the last game and is questionable. He's averaging 14.3 points per game and 3.4 assists.
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Boilermakers suffer rare loss
Purdue built a 12-point first-half lead against UCLA on Tuesday and also led 67-61 with 1:56 left. But the Bruins scored the last eight points to get the upset as a 5.5-point home dog. Purdue shot just 26% (7 of 27) from three-point range and got to the line just seven times. CJ Cox led the Boilermakers with 16 points, adding five rebounds and four assists. Leading scorer Braden Smith chipped in with 12 points and four assists, but shot just 5 of 13 from the field.
Purdue, which had won nine straight games before the loss to UCLA, ranks 12th in the nation in total rebound rate. Smith leads the Boilermakers with 14.5 points and 9.1 assists per game, while shooting 48.3% from the field and 42.7% from long range. Fletcher Lower adds 13 points and shoots 37.5% from long range.
KenPom has the Boilermakers ranked sixth overall, second in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and 19th in Adjusted Defense. In injury news, Braden Smith (knee) was injured late in the UCLA game and is listed as questionable for this game.
Picks and Prediction for Illinois vs. Purdue
Illinois vs. Purdue Pick, Odds and Prediction
- Illinois +4.5 (4 units)
Braden Smith means everything to Purdue. The senior point guard leads the nation in assists per game, and if he's not 100%, Illinois will take advantage. If he doesn't play, that means freshman Omer Meyer gets the nod and the Boilermakers are in big trouble. Illinois has won eight straight games, and they haven't just won due to offense. Their defense holds teams to 40.1% shooting from the field and 29.2% from beyond the arc on the road. Take the road team to cover and win outright.
- Under 152.5 (5 units)
If Smith plays and he's not 100%, or even Meyer plays the point for more than 20 minutes per game, Purdue is going to run a pace even slower than their Adjusted Tempo of 295. They're also going to struggle to score at times. Illinois is at 242nd in Adjusted Tempo and has gone under in six of their last eight games.
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