Indiana Hoosiers vs. Illinois Fighting Illini Picks and Prediction for Sunday, February 15, 2026

We have two teams attempting to move up in the Big 10 in this Indiana vs. Illinois prediction. Indiana (17-8, 8-6 B10) has some work to do if they want a decent seed in the NCAA Tournament, and a slump could push them out of the tournament picture. No. 8 Illinois (20-5, 11-3 B10) is in great shape for a high seed, but they are also tied with Purdue and Nebraska for second place, behind 14-1 Michigan in the Big 10. These teams met once last season, with Illinois winning from Bloomington 94-69. These teams will meet in Champaign on Sunday at 1pmET. Check out more free College Basketball Picks and Predictions from Winners and Whiners.

Hoosiers are playing well at the right time

Indiana has won two straight games and five of their last six. They beat Wisconsin and Oregon at home in their last two games. The Oregon game came on Monday and they dominated the struggling Ducks (92-74), who lost their 10th straight game. Despite missing his first five shots, Lamar Wilkerson went for 41 for the Hoosiers. IU shot a sizzling 60% from the field and 41% (11 of 27) from three-point range.

Indiana is in pretty good shape in the NET Rankings at 31st, but they are just 2-7 against Quad 1 teams. This will be a chance to boost that record. Wilkerson leads the Hoosiers with 21.2 points per game and is shooting 38.7% from three-point range. They also rank 35th on KenPom, 32nd in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and 48th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The Hoosiers take care of the ball, ranking 13th in assist-to-turnover ratio. They also rank 132nd in total rebound percentage.

Illini are dealing with some injury issues

Illinois hasn't suffered a lot of adversity this season. They had won 12 straight games before falling at Michigan State in overtime on Feb. 7 and to Wisconsin at home on Tuesday in overtime, 92-90. In their loss against Wisconsin on Tuesday, Kylan Bowell sat out due to a broken hand and Andrej Stojakovic also missed the game due to a sprained ankle. Bowell also missed the game at Michigan State. Jeremiah Fears Jr. took advantage of Boswell missing the game, scoring 26 points and dishing out 15 assists. The outstanding guard duo of John Blackwell and Nick Boyd combined for 49 points for Wisconsin.

Boswell (14.3 ppg) has missed seven straight game so it's not like the Illini has missed him until the last two games. But he's a game-time decision, along with Stojakovic (13.7 ppg), who had 17 points and seven rebounds against Michigan State, but didn't play against the Badgers. Illinois is very deep with players like freshman Keaton Wagler (18.5 ppg, 4.3 apg) and 6-9, 250-pound David Mirkovic (12.6 ppg, 8 rpg) stepping up with two starters out.

According to KenPom, the Illini are ranked sixth overall, 1st in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and 30th in Adjusted Defense. They are also 10th in total rebounding percentage.

Spread Picks and Prediction for Indiana vs. Illinois

Indiana vs. Illinois Prediction and Odds

• Indiana +10.5 (5 units)

This is closer to a must-win game for Indiana. Even if Boswell and Stojakovic play, they won't be 100%. The Hoosiers are playing good basketball, beating Purdue and Wisconsin at home, but that's still not enough to put them over the top in terms of NET Rankings. They really could use a win on the road against a very good Big 10 and Q1 team. Wilkerson is averaging 33 points per game over his last three games and he's the type of guard to give the Illini trouble. Indiana is shooting 47.2% from the field overall and 35.1% from three-point range. They'll cover the big number against an Illini squad that has covered just two of their last five games.

Over/Under Pick for Indiana vs. Illinois

• Over 150.5 (4 units)

These aren't uptempo teams, but both have excellent offenses. Wilkerson and Wagler both have 40+ point games this season. Indiana has gone over in three of their last four games. Illinois has gone over in two straight. They've averaged scoring 84.7 points per game overall and 88.7 points per game at home, while IU is averaging 81.5 points per game overall.