Indiana State Sycamores vs. Valparaiso Beacons Picks and Prediction for Thursday, March 5, 2026
Use Code WWWC We’ve got an opening round Missouri Valley Conference Tournament matchup on Thursday as the Indiana State Sycamores (#10 seed) take on the Valparaiso Beacons (#7 seed) in Evansville, IN. Indiana State finished the regular season 11–20 (4–16 MVC) and heads into the tournament as a heavy underdog, while Valparaiso finished 17–14 (11–9 MVC), good for the middle of the conference. These teams split their late season meetings, Valpo won 76-75 on Feb. 15 and also took a 76-72 OT game on Jan. 31, setting up another competitive battle. Get in on the action with our free NCAAB picks.
Sycamores looking to rebound after inconsistent finish
Indiana State has had a tough season, finishing in the lower tier of the MVC. They average 73.9 points per game while allowing 74.8 PPG, resulting in a marginal negative scoring margin. Offensively, they play at a moderate pace but turnovers and defensive lapses have kept them from closing the gap on better opponents.
Key Players & 2025-26 Stats
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Ian Scott (F): Team leader with 13.6 PPG, 6.5 RPG, 2.6 APG, the Sycamores’ most consistent scorer and rebounder.
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Xavier Hall (G/F): Provides scoring punch and playmaking, typically in double figures and helps balance the attack.
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Sterling Young (G): Comfortable ball-handler who can create offense and score midrange looks.
Strengths
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Can score efficiently when shots are falling, ISU averaged nearly 74 PPG this season.
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Balanced offensive scoring, multiple players contribute.
Weaknesses
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Defensive inconsistency, opponents score 74.8 PPG versus them.
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Turnover rate and rebounding edge versus stronger frontcourts.
Beacons aiming to pick up where they left off
Valparaiso enters as a more consistent MVC squad and owns the head-to-head edge this season. They average 71.9 PPG and allow 71.2 PPG, giving them a positive scoring margin and a reputation as a disciplined half-court team. Their shooting splits are solid, particularly from three (around .340%) and at the free-throw line, which helps in close games.
Key Players & 2025-26 Stats
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Owen Dease (F): Team’s leading scorer at 13.2 PPG with efficiency inside the arc and free-throw line strength.
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JT Pettigrew (F): Provides rebounding and finishing around the rim with roughly 6.6 RPG.
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Rakim Chaney (G): Facilitates offense with 2.8 APG and helps manage tempo.
Strengths
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Balanced scoring frontcourt with Dease and Pettigrew both impactful.
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Strong enough shooting splits to keep games close.
Weaknesses
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Defense can be average, allowing over 71 PPG in MVC play.
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Valpo’s rebounding isn’t dominant, which could allow second chances.
Indiana State vs. Valparaiso Picks
- Valparaiso -2.5 (5 units)
Valpo has beaten Indiana State twice already this season, including on a last-second shot in mid-February. Their more consistent defensive execution and balanced scoring give them the advantage in a tourney setting. Expect Valpo to control key late possessions and fend off any Sycamores rally.
Total Pick for Indiana State vs. Valparaiso
- Under 137 (5 units)
Both teams are comfortable in slower, half-court sets, and past MVC matchups have stayed relatively contained. Valparaiso and Indiana State score efficiently but not explosively.
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