Iowa Hawkeyes vs Nebraska Cornhuskers Picks and Predictions for Thursday, March 26, 2026
Use Code WWWC Iowa and Nebraska meet at Toyota Center in Houston, Texas, for a Sweet 16 matchup in the South Region at 7:30 PM ET on TBS and truTV. Iowa is 23-12 after tournament wins over Clemson and Florida, while Nebraska is 28-6 after beating Troy and Vanderbilt. Nebraska is listed as a 1.5-point favorite with the total at 133.5. These teams also met on March 8, when Nebraska won 84-75 in overtime. Let’s cash another ticket with our free college basketball picks.
Iowa Has Survived Two Tight Tournament Games
Iowa averaged 74.9 points per game and allowed 66.0 during the regular season, with the offense built around Bennett Stirtz. Stirtz led the Hawkeyes in regular-season scoring, with an average of 19.7 points per game, and also led the team in assists at 4.5. Tavion Banks was the season rebounding leader at 4.7 per game, while Cam Manyawu led Iowa in blocks. The Hawkeyes do not overwhelm teams with size, but they play efficiently and get enough shot-making from the backcourt to stay in games.
The first two tournament wins have followed that formula. In the first-round win over Clemson, Stirtz led Iowa with 16 points, while Kael Combs added 15 and Alvaro Folgueiras had 14 off the bench. Iowa shot only 38% in that game, but the Hawkeyes won the glass 40-25 and defended well enough to control the second half. In the second-round win over Florida, Banks led Iowa with 20 points and six rebounds, Folgueiras scored 14, and Stirtz added 13 points, five rebounds, and five assists. Iowa shot 51% against Florida and made enough plays in the final minutes to advance.
Through two tournament games, Stirtz still leads Iowa in scoring at 14.5 points per game and assists at 3.5, but Banks has been the leading rebounder at 5.0 per game and Iowa’s second leading scorer at 13.0. Folgueiras has also taken on a larger role at 14.0 points and 4.5 rebounds per game off the bench. That matters here because Iowa is getting production beyond its regular-season leader, which gives the Hawkeyes more flexibility in close games.
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Key Injuries - Iowa Hawkeyes
- Peyton McCollum - Out
Nebraska’s Tournament Production Has Come from Multiple Spots
Nebraska averaged 77.1 points per game and allowed 65.8 during the regular season, with a better overall offense than Iowa. Pryce Sandfort led the Cornhuskers in regular-season scoring at 17.9 points per game. Rienk Mast was the top rebounder at 5.8 per game, and Sam Hoiberg led the team in assists at 4.4 while also setting the tone defensively. Nebraska’s offense is not dependent on one player, which has been evident in the tournament.
In the first round against Troy, Sandfort led Nebraska with 23 points and seven made threes. Mast added 11 points and seven assists, while Hoiberg finished with four points, nine rebounds, and four assists. Nebraska dominated that game with 20 assists, 14 made threes, and steady control throughout. In the second round against Vanderbilt, Sandfort scored 15, Mast had 13, Berke Buyuktuncel added 12, and Braden Frager scored 15 off the bench. Hoiberg finished with eight points and eight assists as Nebraska shot 56% and handled a more competitive game.
Through two tournament games, Sandfort leads Nebraska in scoring at 19.0 points per game. Mast leads the Cornhuskers in rebounding at 5.5 per game, while Hoiberg leads in assists at 6.0. Frager is Nebraska’s second-leading scorer in the tournament at 14.0 per game, which is a jump from his regular-season average of 11.7. That added scoring has given Nebraska more balance, especially when opponents focus on Sandfort.
Key Injuries - Nebraska Cornhuskers
- Henry Burt - Game Time Decision
- Connor Essegian - Out
- Ugnius Jarusevicius - Out
Iowa Hawkeyes vs Nebraska Cornhuskers Pick - Spread
- Iowa +1.5
The spread is short for a reason. Nebraska has more depth and already beat Iowa once this month, but Iowa has looked tougher in this tournament than it did late in conference play. The Hawkeyes have won two one-possession games in the Big Dance, Banks is giving them more scoring support, and Folgueiras has become a real factor off the bench. Nebraska is balanced, but this will be a close one-possession outcome, and that will favor Iowa. The Hawkeyes plus the points is the play, and Iowa has a real shot to win outright.
Iowa Hawkeyes vs Nebraska Cornhuskers - Over/Under Pick
- Under 133.5
The current total is low, but Sweet 16 games often get tighter in half-court sets, and both teams have shown they can win that way. Iowa’s tournament wins came with strong defensive stretches, and Nebraska just held Troy to 47 points before winning a controlled game against Vanderbilt. The previous meeting went into overtime, which inflated the score. In a neutral-floor setting with more pressure on every possession, under 133.5 is the play.
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