Iowa State vs. TCU Pick and Prediction for Tuesday, February 10, 2026
It's Tuesday, and it's time for Big 12 action led by this Iowa State vs. TCU prediction. No. 5 Iowa State (21-2, 8-2 B12) is back on a roll, winning five straight after getting stunned by Cincinnati. TCU (14-9, 4-6 B12) is looking to get in the NCAA Tournament mix with a Quad 1 win. The Horned Frogs host the Cyclones on Tuesday at 9pmET from Fort Worth. These teams last met in 2025, with Iowa State winning by 30 at home. Check out more college basketball free picks and NBA predictions at Winners and Whiners.
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Cyclones are a target
The Big 12 is the best conference in the country. Iowa State is tied with Kansas for third at 8-2, while Arizona leads at 10-0 and Houston is second at 9-1. The Cyclones have been a dominant team aside from a 21-point loss at Kansas and the nine-point defeat at Cincinnati. They last played on Saturday and edged Baylor 72-69 as a 14.5-point favorite. They were dominating the Bears, leading by double digits for most of the second half, before Baylor scored the final 11 points to put a scare into Iowa State.
Forward Milan Momcilovic leads Iowa State with 18.7 points per game on 55% shooting (53.3% 3pt), while forward Joshua Jefferson adds 17.2 points and 7.7 rebounds. This is one of the premier three-point shooting teams in the nation (40.7%) and field goal percentage (51.3%). Iowa State ranks 6th overall on KenPom, 11th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and 8th in Adjusted Defense. Iowa State ranks 17th in total rebound rate.
Looking for a big win
It's not too early for teams to start looking at things like Net Ratings because it takes more than just a good record to earn a bid to the NCAA Tournament. TCU is 53rd in the Net Ratings after beating Kansas State 84-82 on Saturday as a 9.5-point favorite. That win broke a two-game losing streak at Colorado (87-61) and against Houston (79-70).
In their win over Kansas State, Xavier Edmonds led the Horned Frogs with 26 points and 10 boards. TCU's defense was not sharp as they allowed K-State to shoot 52% from the field and 111-of-26 (42%) from three-point range. David Punch leads TCU with 14.3 points per game and 7.2 rebounds, while Edmonds adds 12.7 points per game on 59.4% shooting. TCU ranks 115th in total rebound rate. According to KenPom, they rank 54th overall, 104th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and 35th in Adjusted Defense. 
Spread Pick and Prediction for Iowa State vs. TCU
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Ricky Tran | +4,680.00 |
| 2 |  David Delano | +4,650.00 |
| 3 |  Nick Parsons | +4,361.00 |
| 4 |  Mark Ruelle | +4,278.00 |
| 5 |  Terry Edelmann | +2,224.00 |
Iowa State vs. TCU picks and odds
- Iowa State -6.5 (4 units)
Iowa State can't afford to relax. They had won four straight and were double-digit favorites in all of them before edging Baylor. This is a great team that ranks second in the nation in three-point shooting overall (41%), and they shoot even better on the road (42%). TCU's defense is an issue, considering they allow teams to shoot 44.1% overall and 34.7% from three-point range. Iowa State just has too much talent and they're fighting for a top seed overall.
Total pick for Iowa State vs. TCU
- Over 148.5 (4 units)
Both teams are about average in tempo. TCU is 3-1 Over in their last four games. They're averaging 78 points per game in that stretch. Iowa State averages 85.9 points per game overall, while TCU shoots 46% from the field at home. The Cyclones are a very difficult team to stop since they have so many weapons and a lot of depth. TCU will need to keep up the pace and put up at least 75 points to compete.
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