Iowa vs. Michigan State, Picks and Prediction, Tuesday, December 2, 2025
We have an early Big 10 matchup in this Iowa vs. Michigan State prediction. Both teams come into this matchup at 7-0 and have not played since last week. No. 11 Michigan State hosts unranked Iowa on Tuesday night at 7pmET from East Lansing. Last season, the Spartans beat the Hawkeyes 91-84 as a 6.5-point favorite from Iowa City. Michigan State is a 5.5-point favorite and the total is 135.5 when this article was completed. Check out more free college basketball picks at Winners and Whiners, along with NBA, NHL and football picks this week.
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Big test for Iowa
Iowa has passed their biggest tests thus far, beating Xavier (81-62) on Nov. 14 and Ole Miss (74-69) on Nov. 25. The win over the Rebels came in the Acrisure Series Tournament from Palm Desert, California. Guard Bennett Stritz led the way with 29 points against Ole Miss and was held to 13 points and five assists in their 59-46 win over Grand Cayon in the final on Wednesday, Nov. 26. Isaia Howard led the Hawkeyes with 19 points and six rebounds. Howard is a 6-5 Drake transfer who averages 8.3 points and shoots 56.4% from the field.
Stirtz leads Iowa with 18.6 points per game and is shooting 45.7% from three-point range. They have just one other player averaging double digits and that's Alvaro Folgueiras, who averages 10 points and 4.7 rebounds. The 6-10, 240-pound forward from Spain, averaged 14.1 points last season for Robert Morris.
Iowa is ranked 21st on KenPom, 29th on Adjusted Offensive Rating and 28th in Adjusted Defensive Rating. They are also 43rd in rebound rate and 24th in assist-to-turnover ratio.
Sparty looks dominant so far
Iowa has a new coach in Ben McCollum, who comes over from Drake. He replaces long-time coach Fran McCaffery, who spent 15 seasons at Iowa City. Tom Izzo has been at Michigan State since 1995. He's won 744 games, including 30 last season. He's won just one NCAA Tournament, but has made eight Final Four appearances, with the last being in 2019. This could be one of Izzo's best teams, though they have a lot of work to do. They are 15th on KenPom, 37th in Adjusted Offense and 5th in Adjusted Defense.
The Spartans are undefeated after beating No. 16 North Carolina 74-58 on Nov. 27 as a 1-point favorite. That was as part of the Fort Myers Tip-Off. Guard Jeremy Fears Jr. led MSU with 19 points, while Carson Cooper added 14.
Most of Izzo's teams are big and physical and this is another. Cooper (6-11, 245) and Jaxon Kohler (6-10, 245) are tough in the paint. Kohler averages 14.6 points and 9.7 rebounds, while Cooper adds 10.6 points and 5.9 rebounds. Fears adds 12 points and 9.7 assists, while shooting 47.1% from long range. Michigan State ranks 19th in assist-to-turnover ratio and 11th in rebound rate.
Spread Pick for Iowa vs. Michigan State
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Earle Sports Bets | +2,298.00 |
| 2 |  Ross Benjamin | +1,840.00 |
| 3 |  Rob Vincilleti | +1,757.00 |
| 4 |  David Hess | +1,745.00 |
| 5 |  Dan Kaiser | +987.00 |
Iowa vs. Michigan State Pick and Prediction
- Michigan State -5.5 (5 units)
Izzo doesn't have a lot of NBA first-round picks on his roster, but it doesn't matter. He doesn't need superstars to win a basketball game, though it would help to advance to his ninth Final Four. The Spartans should dominate the boards here and their defense has been very good against the three-point shot (27.9), so expect a lot of attention paid to Stritz, who won't get many good looks.
- Under 135.5 (4 unit)
Under McCaffery, Iowa was an up-tempo team. Last year, they ranked 61st in Adjusted Tempo, and this season, they rank 357th under McCollum. Michigan State is a bigger team and they are normally going to be methodical, ranking 296th in pace of play. Michigan State has gone under in five of their last six games and four of their last six against Iowa.
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