Iowa vs. Purdue Picks and Prediction for Wednesday, January 14, 2026
Use Code WWWC Iowa Hawkeyes (12-4) vs. Purdue Boilermakers (15-1)
The 2025-26 college basketball season goes on Wednesday, January 14, with the Iowa Hawkeyes taking on the No. 5 Purdue Boilermakers in the Big Ten Conference showdown at Mackey Arena in West Lafayette, IN, and we’ve got the Iowa vs. Purdue prediction to get you prepared.
The Hawkeyes meet the Boilermakers for the first time this season, and Purdue shoots for its fifth consecutive SU and ATS victory over Iowa. The Boilermakers are 9.5-point home favorites with a total of 142.5 points.
Read more about this Iowa vs. Purdue prediction, and check out all our NCAAB picks for Wednesday’s card. The tip-off at Mackey Arena is set at 6:30 PM ET.
Iowa hopes to avoid its third straight loss
The Iowa Hawkeyes (12-4; 11-5 ATS; 10-6 O/U) put an end to their four-game winning streak on January 6, suffering a 70-67 defeat at Minnesota. Last Sunday, the Hawkeyes fell to 2-3 in conference play, losing to No. 16 Illinois 75-69 in front of the home audience.
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Iowa made just 39.7% of its field goals against Minnesota, and senior guard Bennett Stirtz led the way with 21 points. Stirtz accounted for 12 points and six assists against Illinois, and the Hawkeyes shot 40.9% from the field.
The Hawkeyes score 120.7 points per 100 possessions (35th in the country). However, that number dropped to 115.0 in conference play, where the Hawkeyes surrender 98.8 points per 100 possessions. Iowa leads the Big Ten in defensive turnover percentage (20.3%) and ranks third in opposing 3-point percentage (29.3%).
Stirtz is a lone Hawkeye with points per game in double digits. He averages 17.6 points and 5.1 assists while making 39.4% of his shots from deep. Fellow senior guard Tavion Banks tallies 9.7 points and 4.6 rebounds per game, and junior forward Alvaro Folgueiras adds 9.0 points and 4.1 boards a night.
Purdue continues to roll
The Purdue Boilermakers (15-1; 9-7 ATS; 7-9 O/U) lone loss came against then-No. 10 Iowa State 81-58 on December 6. Since then, the Boilermakers have won seven straight contests while going 5-2 against the spread.
Last Saturday, the Boilermakers advanced to 5-0 in conference play, beating Penn State 93-85 at home. Purdue shot 57.6% from the field (11-for-29 from deep) while posting a sparkling 25/3 assist-to-turnover ratio. Senior guard Braden Smith led the way with 26 points and 14 assists.
Smith tallies 14.1 points, 9.8 assists, and 3.7 rebounds per game. Senior forward Trey Kaufman-Renn posts 13.3 points and 10.0 rebounds per contest, and fellow senior forward Oscar Cluff adds 11.9 points and 8.6 boards a night.
The Boilermakers score 129.7 points per 100 possessions (2nd in the country) and allow 96.7 points in return (20th). In conference play, they tally 132.4 points per 100 possessions and surrender 99.3 points in return. Purdue is second in the Big Ten in 3-point percentage (37.9%) and turnover percentage (12.4%).
Iowa vs. Purdue Pick
Spread Pick for Iowa vs. Purdue
- Purdue -9.5 (5 units)
As I noted above, the Hawkeyes lean on their defense. Their 3-point defense has been excellent thus far, and the Hawkeyes force a lot of turnovers. However, they’ve been turnover-prone in conference play and allowed a ton of free throws.
This time, the Hawkeyes will meet one of the best point guards in the country. Braden Smith is having a great season, and the Boilermakers take good care of the ball. They don’t get to the free-throw line frequently, but the Boilermakers are a solid defensive team, so I expect them to beat Iowa and cover the spread.
Over/Under Pick for Iowa vs. Purdue
- Under 142.5 (5 units)
The Hawkeyes need to bring their best defense if they want to upset the odds at Mackey Arena. Iowa is not a great offensive team by any stretch of the imagination. The Hawkeyes have amassed just 181 points across their three true road games this season.
Iowa prefers to play at a slow pace. The Hawkeyes register 64.2 possessions per 40 minutes (340th in the country), and the Boilermakers record 65.9 possessions per 40 minutes (279th), so I will take the under. It’s a tricky wager because of the Boilermakers’ super-efficient offense, and Purdue has surpassed an 80-point mark in five straight outings.
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