Kansas State Wildcats vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders Picks and Prediction for Saturday, February 21 2026
Use Code WWWC One coach will be on an interim basis in his second game in this Kansas State vs. Texas Tech prediction on Saturday at 2:30 PM ET from Lubbock. K-State (11-15, 2-11 B12), under interim coach Matthew Driscoll, took out their frustrations against Baylor 90-74 on Feb. 17. No. 13 Texas Tech (19-7, 9-4 B12) is in a good position for a strong NCAA Tournament seed, but will have to proceed without star forward JT Toppin, who tore his ACL in a 72-67 loss at Arizona State on Tuesday. The Red Raiders have won the last three in this series, going back to last season when they beat the Wildcats 61-57 from Manhattan as a 7.0-point road favorite. Check out more free College Basketball predictions on Saturday, along with NBA picks at Winners and Whiners.
Driscoll leads Wildcats to first win in nearly a month
On Tuesday, K-State upset Baylor 90-74 at home as a 3.5-point favorite. More importantly, it was their first win since Jan. 20 when they defeated Utah. It was also the first game since the program fired head coach Jerome Tang for "cause" after he went on a rant after their 91-62 home loss to Cincinnati on Feb. 11. The Wildcats went on to lose to Houston 78-64 on Feb. 14, but covered the 21.5. In that game, he removed the players' names from the uniform as a motivational tool.
He wasn't around to see the Wildcats beat the Bears thanks to a 34-point performance from P.J. Haggerty and a 33-point performance from Nate Johnson (9 asst, 6 steals, 6 turnovers). It's been a rough season for Kansas State and injuries have also played a role. Monmouth transfer Abdi Bashir, who averaged 20.3 points per game last season in the CAA, has played in 18 games due to injuries, but was averaging 13.2 points and shooting 44.4% from the three-point line. He's been out with a foot injury, but might return late in the season.
Haggerty leads the Wildcats with 23.7 points and adds 4.0 assists per game, while Johnson averages 12 points and 4.6 assists, while shooting 39.8% from beyond the arc. KenPom has the Wildcats ranked 93rd overall, 95th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and 112th in Adjusted Defense. They also ranked 256th in total rebounding percentage.
Get Free $30 Credit for Premium Picks + Exclusive Discounts
Subscribe Now
Texas Tech loses Toppin during loss at ASU
Texas Tech had won three straight games and everything was looking rosy after they upset No. 1 Arizona 78-75 in overtime on Feb. 14. That was a week ago and things don't look as positive after they lost to the Sun Devils by five on Tuesday. With around six minutes left in the game and down 61-56, Red Raiders' star forward JT Toppin drove to the basket and fell awkwardly and needed help off the court. After an MRI, it was confirmed that the reigning Big 12 Player of the Year had suffered a torn ACL.
You couldn't ask for worse news for one of the nation's top non-freshmen, who was averaging 21.8 points per game and 10.8 rebounds with 1.7 blocks. Toppin had 31 points and 13 rebounds in Texas Tech's win over Arizona and then had 20 points, eight rebounds and four blocks in their loss at ASU. There isn't a player that can replace the bouncy 6-9, 230-pound sophomore. Guard Christian Anderson can score at will, averaging 19 points and 7.6 assists with 35 steals, while shooting 44% from three-point range. Villanova transfer Josiah Moseley (6-8, 225) is likely one of the bench players who will need to play more minutes.
Overall, Texas Tech ranks 18th overall on KenPom, 17th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and 24th in Adjusted Defense. The Red Raiders rank 66th overall in total rebounding percentage.
Spread Picks for Kansas State vs. Texas Tech
Kansas State vs. Texas Tech Prediction and Picks
- Kansas State +14.5 (4 units)
Toppin was one of the best all-around players in the nation, and losing him is like losing two players because he did so much when it comes to rebounding, defense, and scoring. Kansas State didn't play that poorly in Tang's last game, and they all of a sudden came together against Baylor. Cincinnati and Iowa State (96-61) were embarrassing losses, but they had covered four other games in the last six. Texas Tech's defense with Toppin wasn't great, as they rank 166th in field goal percentage defense (43.8%). Without him, the Wildcats should be able to score in the paint led by 6-9 Khamari McGriff (9.2ppg).
Total picks for Kansas State vs. Texas Tech
- Under 158.5 (4 units)
Texas Tech has gone under in five straight games. Their pace of play is a bit methodical as they rank 189th in Adjusted Tempo. But that pace should be even slower without Toppin, who controlled the boards and could run in transition as well as any big man in the nation. These teams have gone under in four straight meetings. K-State is shooting just 41.6% from the field on the road, and the Red Raiders are allowing 68.3 points per game at home.
Betting on College Basketball?
- Join Winners and Whiners premium for free and get a free $30 coupon with code FREE30
- Get started and wager on college hoops today with our favorite online sportsbooks
- Claim a CBB betting bonus offer with the best sportsbook promos
Up To $1500 in Bonus Bets Paid Back if your First Bet Does Not Win
New Users – Bet $5 Get $200 in Bet Reset Tokens for 5 Days
