Kent State Golden Flashes at Purdue Boilermakers Picks and Prediction for Monday, December 29, 2025
The Purdue Boilermakers (11-1) return home Monday night, looking to continue an impressive non-conference run. They host Kent State (10-2) in a matchup between a national title contender and a disciplined, veteran mid-major that's looking to make a statement.
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A big opportunity
Kent State has quietly put together a strong start under its head coach, Rob Senderoff, coming in with a balanced offensive attack and multiple experienced contributors. The Golden Flashes rank 106th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency, driven by an up-tempo approach (72.8 possessions per game, 28th nationally) and an aggressive mindset attacking the basket. They get to the free-throw line at an elite rate, ranking 12th in free throw attempts per field goal attempt, which puts them strength against strength as they face Purdue.
The leader of the team is Delrecco Gillespie, who has been dominant through the first 12 games. He’s averaging 19.3 points and 12.6 rebounds per game while shooting nearly 59% from the floor. Morgan Safford (15.1 ppg) and Cian Medley (10.4 ppg, 6.5 apg) have also been strong contributors to the Golden Flashes success.
Defensively, Kent State is more vulnerable. The Golden Flashes rank just 196th in adjusted defensive efficiency and have struggled to contain opponents from deep, allowing 37.3% from three-point range. Turnovers are also an issue, with a high offensive turnover rate that could be magnified against Purdue’s physicality.
A title contender
Purdue looks every bit like a national contender once again. The last time the Boilermakers took the floor on December 20th, they routed #21 Auburn 88-60. The team is now on a three-game winning streak since suffering its lone loss to Iowa State earlier this month.
Matt Painter’s group is rated fifth overall by KenPom, including first nationally in offensive efficiency. Trey Kaufman-Renn leads the team, averaging 13.9 points and 10.0 rebounds per game while shooting nearly 60% from the floor. His efficiency around the rim pairs well with Purdue’s guard play, led by Braden Smith (12.6 ppg, 9.6 apg) and Fletcher Loyer (13.6 ppg), who both are shooting 42% from three-point range.
Defensively, Purdue is also strong ranking 17th in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Boliermakers excel at defending without fouling, and protect the rim well with length across the front line. They also limit opponent trips to the free-throw line, ranking third nationally in defensive free-throw attempts per field goal attempts, meaning teams rarely earn easy points against them.
Kent State Golden Flashes at Purdue Boilermakers
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  The Insiders Room | +1,793.00 |
| 2 |  Tony Karpinski | +1,731.00 |
| 3 |  Jesse Schule | +1,599.00 |
| 4 |  Rob Vinciletti | +1,284.00 |
| 5 |  David Delano | +1,232.00 |
Kent State vs Purdue ATS Pick:
- Kent State +25.5 (4 Units)
Although Purdue is clearly the better team, I expect Kent State to compete. The Boilermakers play at one of the slowest tempos in the country and are comfortable winning games through efficiency rather than volume, which makes covering a large number a challenge. Kent State also has multiple reliable scoring options, led by Delrecco Gillespie, along with enough steady guard play to handle pressure without completely unraveling. As long as the Golden Flashes limit live-ball turnovers and avoid extended scoring droughts, they should be able to trade enough baskets to stay within the number.
Kent State vs Purdue Total Pick:
- Under 159.5
The Boilermakers rank among the slowest teams in the nation in tempo and consistently force opponents into long, half-court possessions. They’re extremely efficient offensively, but they don’t rush shots, and they’re just as comfortable draining the clock with a sizable lead. On defense, Purdue will also make it difficult for a faster-paced team like Kent State to maintain their preferred speed for a full game.
With Purdue dictating tempo, fewer possessions overall, and both teams likely spending extended time in half-court sets, the under is the play.
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