Kentucky vs. Louisville Picks and Predictions, Tuesday, November 11th, 2025
Use Code WWWC One of the most famous rivalries in college basketball fires up again when the #9 Kentucky Wildcats (2-0) and the #12 Louisville Cardinals (2-0) tip off on Tuesday on national television in this Kentucky vs. Louisville prediction. These teams met last season, with Kentucky winning 93-85 at home. Kentucky is coming off an easy 107-59 win over Valparaiso, while Louisville just rolled Jackson State 106-70. Tipoff is set for 8:00 EST and can be found on ESPN. Keep reading to see our Kentucky vs. Louisville prediction, and check out all of our winning NCAAB Betting Picks!
Kentucky's Second Year with Pope
The Kentucky Wildcats head into their second season with head coach Mark Pope, as he finished last year with a strong 24-14 record, but lost in the Sweet 16. He looks to improve on last year's performance, and has a special team that is ranked in the top ten after two dominant victories to start the season. Kentucky rolled Nicholls and Valparaiso, both at home, and now travels to take on the Cardinals in a high-profile preseason matchup. In their last game against Valpo, all five starters scored between 12 and 15 points in the win.
Otega Oweh had 15 points in the game, which tied for the team high. He is a 6'4 senior who is the Wildcats top returner as he averaged 16.2 PPG last season to go with 4.7 RPG. Oweh started his career at Oklahoma, but will now lead the Cats in his senior season as a strong guard who loves to attack the basket. Oweh is getting 14.0 PPG this season, just a half point behind Collin Chandler who unloaded one of the nastiest dunks of the preseason. Chandler is in his second season in Kentucky, but now will be given more minutes as a 6'5 guard who can score inside and out. Malachi Moreno is their star recruit, the 7'0 freshman was a top 25 prospect and is getting 11.5 PPG and 9.5 RPG in the middle.
Kentucky is ranked as the top overall team in KenPom to start the season. They are 11th in offensive efficiency and 4th in defensive efficiency. They play relatively fast, ranking 79th in the nation out of 365 teams in pace of play.
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Cardinals Look for Revenge
The Louisville Cardinals get to host this season's matchup with Kentucky after falling in a tight battle last year. Louisville also has a second-year coach, as Pat Kelsey is back after an incredible turnaround season that saw the team finish 27-8. The Cardinals ultimately lost in the first round of the tournament, but won each of their first two games this season by at least 30 points. In their most recent game, the Cardinals got 19 points and eight rebounds from Ryan Conwell in the win.
Conwell is one of the nation's top transfers, as he averaged over 16.0 PPG over the last two seasons for two different teams. He scored 16.6 PPG as a sophomore with Indiana State, then transferred to Xavier where he averaged 16.5 PPG as a junior. Conwell is putting up similar numbers this season, scoring 15.5 through the first two games with Louisville. Their top scorer has been Khani Rooths, the athletic 6'10 sophomore is getting 18.0 PPG and 8.5 RPG to start the year after getting minimal time in his first season with the Cardinals. Mikel Brown Jr. is projected to be a big time player, the five star prospect has lottery potential as a 6'5 freshman getting 14.5 PPG and 7.5 APG.
Louisville is ranked 11th overall according to KenPom. They are 3rd in offensive efficiency and 35th in defensive efficiency. The Cardinals play at a faster pace than the Wildcats, ranking 23rd in the nation in tempo.
Kentucky vs. Louisville Picks and Predictions
Spread pick for Kentucky vs. Louisville
- Louisville -3.5 (5 units)
Kentucky is the higher ranked team in the AP Polls, and is the top overall team in KenPom, but there is a reason the line makers in Vegas say they are 3.5-point dogs in this one. This rivalry is older than the players on the floor, and Louisville is going to put up a strong performance at home as they have the most talented player on the floor, and the size to matchup with Kentucky. NBADraft.net has Louisville freshman Mikel Brown Jr. listed as their 3rd overall pick for the upcoming draft, as Brown has elite athleticism and playmaking, which will contribute to a Louisville win here. Kentucky cannot rely on the big fellas, as Khani Rooths has proved he is making a big jump this season as a 6'10 sophomore. Louisville will be too much here.
Take Louisville to win and cover.
Over/Under Pick for Kentucky vs. Louisville
- Over 169.5 (4 units)
These teams have both played two games this season, with one over and one under, so there is nothing to look at trend-wise from this season. But look back one year, when these two coaches led their team to their first-ever matchup in this classic rivalry, and the pace was hectic and went way over the number. Expect more of that this season, as each offense will be playing at a fast pace, with each squad falling comfortably in the top 80 in pace of play. These teams have bigs, but no old school post presences. This will be an up and down game soaring over the number.
Take the over.
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