Kentucky Wildcats vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Picks and Prediction for Saturday, January 3rd, 2025
The Kentucky Wildcats (9-4, 6-7 ATS, 6-7 O/U) take on the Alabama Crimson Tide (10-3, 6-7 ATS, 7-6 O/U) in an SEC meeting on Saturday afternoon, and we have the prediction. The Wildcats posted a win against Bellarmine in their previous action. The Crimson Tide recorded a home win against Yale on Monday. Alabama went 3-0 against Kentucky last season.
Can the Wildcats begin SEC play with a big road win on Saturday? Do you need a boost in your handicapping? Try our NCAAB Picks!
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Kentucky Seeks 10th Win of Season
The Kentucky Wildcats are targeting their 10th win of the season. Kentucky has endured a daunting schedule and has thrived for the most part. They did drop two games in a row against North Carolina and Gonzaga to begin December. The group beat Indiana by 12 points a few weeks ago. They also netted a win against St John’s on December 20th.
Kentucky posted a 99-85 home win against Bellarmine before the break, but didn't cover the big 25-point spread. Kentucky shot 49% while Bellarmine shot 52%. The Wildcats have covered in just two of their past five games.
Otega Oweh has been hit or miss. The senior guard has surpassed 20 points in two games this season. Oweh scored 20 points in the win against St. John’s and has recorded an average of 14.2 PPG on the season. Mouhamed Dioubate has been a threat, scoring at least 20 points in two of his last five efforts. The junior forward has issued an average of 12.3 PPG on the year.
Denzel Aberdeen has scored double digits in just one of his last five games. The senior guard is averaging 11.6 PPG on 46.6% shooting. Collin Chandler has shot below 30% in three straight games. The sophomore guard has amassed an average of 9.2 PPG. Malachi Moreno has connected on 60% of his shots in three of his past five games. The freshman center has reported an average of 9.1 PPG and 6.5 RPG
Kentucky is ranked 20th in DI in Ken Pomeroy’s ratings. They were in the AP Top 25 but dropped out after the losses last month. Kentucky has only played in one true road game, which was a defeat against Louisville. Kentucky has a potent offense, averaging 92 points on the season, ranking them 28th. The Wildcats have conceded 65 or fewer points in three of their past five games and are squandering an average of 73.5 points, placing them 142nd in the country.
Alabama Begins SEC Play with 10 Wins
The Alabama Crimson Tide enters its first game of January seeking its 11th win. Alabama has won three games in a row, led by the potent offense. The Crimson Tide lost to Purdue and Gonzaga early in the season. They have earned wins against Maryland and beat Clemson to begin December.
Alabama issued a 102-78 home win against Yale on Monday to cover the big 16-point spread. Alabama sank 44% of its shots while keeping Yale to a 40% mark. The Tide have covered the spread in two of their past five games.
Lebaron Philon Jr. is having a superb season. The sophomore guard has the ability to take over a game. He has reached 20 points on nine occasions this season and has registered an average of 21.9 PPG on 55% shooting. Aden Holloway accumulated 26 points in the win against Yale on Monday. The junior guard has contributed with 17.6 PPG on the year.
Amari Allen has been shaky in recent weeks, but rebounded with 15 points on Monday. The freshman forward has yielded 10.6 PPG and 7.2 RPG. Taylor Bol Bowen has scored 11 or fewer points in five straight clashes. The junior forward has reported 9.3 PPG on the season. Jalil Bethea scored 15 points against Yale. The sophomore guard is averaging 9.7 PPG on the season.
The Crimson Tide are marked 16th in the country in Ken Pomeroy’s ratings and stands at 5-1 at home, including a win against USF. Alabama has netted 90 or more points in five of its past six games and is posting an average of 94.6 points on the season, good for 20th. The Tide is conceding an average of 81.7 points, pegging them 290th in DI.
Kentucky vs. Alabama Pick
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Tony Karpinski | +2,494.00 |
| 2 |  Joe Duffy | +1,859.00 |
| 3 |  The Insiders Room | +1,788.00 |
| 4 |  Mark Ruelle | +1,428.00 |
| 5 |  Jackie Mack | +1,400.00 |
Spread Pick for Kentucky vs. Alabama
- Kentucky Wildcats +5.5 (5 units)
The Kentucky Wildcats are in a groove, winning four straight games, including a win against Indiana of the Big Ten. They are one of the best defensive teams in the country. Alabama is also hot, but its last three games were against USF, Kennesaw State, and Yale.
Furthermore, the Wildcats' defense will lead to the cover. They are keeping opponents to 97.5 points per 100 possessions, rating them 22nd in the country compared to 102.2 points per 100 by the Tide. The Crimson Tide gives up too many points, making it difficult to cover these spreads. They have surrendered 90 or more points in two of their past four games, including 93 points against USF, in which they won but did not cover. Go with Kentucky.
Over/Under Pick for Kentucky vs. Alabama
- Over 170.5 (5 units)
I expect a shootout in this one. Alabama plays at a very quick pace and is one of the top offensive teams in the entire country. They rank 10th in DI in adjusted tempo and score big numbers in most games. They have scored 90 or more points in six of their past seven games.
In addition, the Crimson Tide squanders a ton of points due to its pace, and the over has been the dominant trend. They gave up 96 points against St. John’s, 95 against Gonzaga, and 93 points against USF. Kentucky has the scoring punch to take advantage of the Tide' shaky defense. The over is a convincing 6-1 in the Wildcats' past seven road games.
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